Reports are that Hariri will return tomorrow to Beirut. Given all the false starts, one hesitates to predict a cabinet soon, but Nasrallah’s speech yesterday and the fact that Bassil’s efforts to undermine the Berri initiative have floundered suggest this may be different.
Indeed, Bassil’s theatrics last Sunday were most likely designed to torpedo Berri’s efforts, precisely because they were nearing a positive conclusion and Bassil saw he could not get a blocking third. Hezbollah didn’t fall for it and in recent days shot down his protests.
They reportedly backed Hariri in his right to name a Christian; they did not accept Bassil’s effort to name the two remaining Christian ministers, saying this was tantamount to a blocking third; and they reaffirmed support for Berri’s plan.
They suffocated Bassil with warm embraces, leaving him with no margin of maneuver. Plus, the protests in Shia areas today and the further decline in the pound’s value may not be completely innocent. They may have been added pressure on Aoun and Bassil to get with the program.
That said, there were many previous false predictions, so let’s see. But Bassil cannot continue to twist and turn without harming his ties with Hezbollah, and without Aoun looking like Nero, fiddling while Lebanon burns. If the Aounists feel isolated, they did this to themselves.
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