1. I am thrilled to see bipartisan support for tax compliance efforts. Investing in IRS will raise substantial revenue and create a more efficient and equitable tax system.
2. The @WSJEditorial board disagrees, and shockingly argues that *increasing deficits* is preferable to cracking down on tax cheats.
3. @WSJEditorial suggests that it is mere conjecture that evasion results in sig losses.
This is untrue. The IRS estimates tax gap w/ audit studies. Btwn 2011-2013, owed b/ uncollected taxes totaled $440B+
Extrapolating for growth, tax gap $600B this year, $7T in next decade.
4. @WSJEditorial also claims that to raise $ IRS will audit “nearly every high-income taxpayer in the country.”
This too is a fallacy
My research w/ @NatashaRSarin shows returning IRS to 2011 audit levels alone would raise ~$180B in a decade.
(High-end focus raises even more)
5. @WSJEditorial states w/o evidence that high-end noncompliance uncommon bc “costs are too high” for potential tax cheats.
B/ long line of research shows unpaid taxes concentrated at top of distribution.
This is b/c no costs to evasion w/ IRS that lacks resources to police it
6. In fact, a few hundred high-income indvls committed the most egregious form of tax evasion: failing to file returns all together, and cost the IRS $10 billion over three years.
For years, the IRS was not even able to pursue these cases.
7. Another example: billionaires filed false returns that cost IRS an est. $2 billion.
They hid from tax authorities using program called “Evidence Eliminator.”
Took years to come to light; even then w/ minor consequences for at least some implicated: nytimes.com/2021/03/12/bus…
8. Part of issue is today IRS runs on tech from the 1960s & has failed to keep pace with changes in the economy.
Complex partnerships rose from 5% of income to 35% of income since the 1990s.
4.2M partnership returns filed last year; the IRS had ability to examine just 7,500
9. IRS Commissioner Rettig has made clear: to appropriately concentrate audits across the income distribution, the IRS needs the resources to go after the top.
Details of bipartisan package are promising on this dimension.
10. @JoeBiden Admin’s compliance proposal is explicit: Audit rates will not rise relative to recent yrs for anyone making under $400K in true income.
Ordinary taxpayers will benefit from *lower* audit rates when IRS has ability to better target enforcement on those skirting law
11. Career economists at Treasury estimate more resources for IRS + better information generate $700B in a decade.
12. Former Commissioner Rossotti and IRS exec Fred Forman estimate more than 2x as much, $1.6T.
14. No reason to maintain a tax system where ordinary taxpayers are fully compliant, but those (disproportionately $$) who happen to earn income in opaque ways do not.
The @WSJEditorial board may side with tax evaders; but Congress and American people, should not.
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.@porszag cites superforecasters who think there is only a 42 percent chance of inflation exceeding 3 percent for the year. The Administration budget projections (perhaps reflecting lags in the process) call for inflation closer to 2 percent this year.
Given that inflation has totaled 2.7 percent in first 5 months of this year I think odds are better than 42 percent of higher 3 percent inflation in first half of the year!
Watch here my @CFR_org talk with @gilliantett yesterday where I talked about inflation, saying:
The @federalreserve has traditionally acted and spoken in ways designed to preempt inflation fears.
Today, the @federalreserve speaks in a way designed to preempt the idea the Fed MIGHT have inflation fears. That’s a very different thing and likely to contribute to development of an inflation psychology.
The famous doctrine of @federalreserve has always been William McChesney Martin’s remark: Fed’s job is to “take away the punch bowl” before the party gets out of hand. What we are now saying is we are not going to do anything until we see a bunch of drunk people staggering around
It represents an overdue recognition that the relative return on public and private investment has changed dramatically over the last generation. That makes borrowing and investing at large scale the right strategy for the Federal government.
I continue to be very worried that the current fiscal - monetary mix will overheat the economy. But these measures will not exacerbate the problem.
.@POTUS Biden's $1.9 trillion covid-19 relief plan, added to the stimulus measure Congress passed in December with the incoming administration’s strong support, would represent the boldest act of macroeconomic stabilization policy in U.S. history.
Its ambition, its rejection of austerity orthodoxy and its commitment to reducing economic inequality are all admirable.
1. New NBER WP out today, “Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform” with @NatashaRSarin, @omzidar, and Eric Zwick.
We point out that there is likely much more revenue potential from raising capital gains rates than official scorekeepers believe. nber.org/papers/w28362?…
2. Elasticity of capital gains tax base to rate changes is assumed to be .7.
This is unchanged since the 80s, and means that raising cap gains rates to ordinary income levels puts you on the wrong side of the Laffer curve.
We believe this conclusion is mistaken.
3. Why? Estimates appear to miss that realizations deferred when rates rise unlikely to be deferred indefinitely
And when they are realized, taxed at new higher rates
Suppose doubling cap gains rates cuts realizations in half, e.g. occur once every 2 years rather than annually
I spoke via Zoom last night at the Beijing Forum 2020: COVID-19 Shock to Global Health and Development.
I retold the story of Reagan and Gorbachev and their private walk around Lake Geneva in 1985. As the story is told, Reagan asks Gorbachev if he would come to the defense of the USA upon the invasion of aliens from outer space and Gorbachev says, “Yes, of course.”
Gorbachev asks the same of Reagan and gets the same response. The two leaders then agree to collaborate in defense of all of humanity.