It looks like Euro 2020 might have caused a massive surge in covid cases in young men in Scotland.

Unless someone can think of another reason for this odd pattern?
Daily case numbers in Scotland are now at their highest level of the entire pandemic.

Mostly in young, unvaccinated people. And with far higher rates amongst men than women.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
If you zoom in, there's a precipitous rise in cases from June 20th - 21st, almost doubling overnight, a week after Scotland's first match of the tournament.

Which is roughly how long you'd expect it to take for people to start showing symptoms and book a test. Image
Case rates up to June 23rd were highest in Dundee and Edinburgh, rather than Glasgow, where the match actually took place.

But the stadium was only at about 20% capacity, and those cities had significantly higher case rates than Glasgow before the match.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/intera… Image
And there we have it. Public Health Scotland has officially linked at least 1,991 recent cases (90% in men) to Euro 2020, including 1,294 fans who went to London for the England vs Scotland match, most without tickets.

Bit of an own goal there. 🙄

Worryingly, of 2,600 Scottish fans actually in Wembley for the England game, 397 later tested positive for covid! That's a 15% infection rate.

Of course, we don't know if they caught the virus at the stadium or travelling there and back. But it's not reassuring for major events.
Almost 900 others who travelled to London for the game without tickets (despite warnings not to do so), crowding trains on the way down and seen packed close together partying in Leicester Square and elsewhere, also caught covid following the match.

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla…

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More from @_johnbye

6 Jul
A timely reminder that even young, healthy people can be affected by severe long covid after having the virus.

This poor woman has suffered over a year of health problems, including blood clots on the lungs and heart inflammation. She's been largely housebound since March 2020!
Lifting all remaining covid rules when cases are rising rapidly in young people who aren't fully vaccinated yet (and, in the case of children, don't even have the option of being vaccinated yet) means many thousands more will suffer months of serious long term health problems.
The idea that it will all just magically be fine because it's summer and cases were very low last summer is clearly nonsense.

Covid is not seasonal. We've had major waves starting in March, September, December and June.

Cases in July are now as high as they were in December! Image
Read 4 tweets
4 Jul
It's not just school children who are being left to fend for themselves as the government lets covid rip.

Cases in university towns with large student populations soared as the academic year ended, with some of the highest rates in the country.

Source:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/intera…
Oxford: Image
Nottingham: Image
Read 10 tweets
13 Jun
I wonder what @QMUL thinks of @profnfenton retweeting a post from an anti-vax conspiracy nut accusing colleague @dgurdasani1 of "misrepresenting the data" on covid deaths amongst vaccinated people?

Particularly ironic given Fenton's own record of mangling data...
Unsurprisingly, Dr Syed's claim that vaccination *increases* your risk of dying if you catch covid by 73% is utter nonsense.

A quick look at the ONS data shows the proportion of covid deaths in the oldest (most vaccinated) age groups has been falling. Exactly as you'd expect.
His whole argument rests on either ignoring the age of people who were vaccinated entirely or (in a later post) assuming that everyone who died was elderly.

Which, as I've just shown above, is far from true.
Read 10 tweets
12 Jun
The latest nonsense from @hartgroup_org members @ClareCraigPath and @profnfenton is that there's no danger from rising cases because they're not real (they are), hospital admissions aren't rising (they are), and asymptomatic testing isn't showing any rise (it is).
As usual Clare Craig quotes a lot of data that's completely meaningless, to "prove" nothing is really wrong.

Like 111 call data (covid calls go to a separate phoneline) and GP visits (you're not supposed to visit your GP if you have covid symptoms).

She talks about a "small uptick" in lateral flow test positivity, which she now says "successfully identified presymtpomatic patients in winter".

That small uptick is positivity doubling in 2 weeks.

We're now doing half a million LFTs a day on average.

Read 6 tweets
11 Jun
Nice to see the government is back to leaking major decisions to the press before they're even supposed to have been made, and 3 days ahead of any official announcement. 🙄
The reason we're in this mess (yet again) is because the government did too little too late (yet again).

They delayed putting India on the red list for 2 weeks, probably in the vain hopes a trade trip could still go ahead. Letting the Delta variant in.

thetimes.co.uk/article/3a8b6a…
Then they failed to take action in areas where the new variant was spreading and ignored calls to delay the last stage of reopening, letting Delta become dominant across the whole country and case numbers surge.

Choosing wishful thinking over science.

Read 4 tweets
10 Jun
Meanwhile in Cornwall, the G7 summit is in danger of turning into a super spreader event, in an area that has had the lowest infection rates in England until now.

13 out of 17 staff at a hotel housing media and members of the German delegates' security team have caught covid.
The last few days have seen a surge in cases in Cornwall.

There have already been almost as many cases this week (102) as there were in the whole of May (121), and the data is still incomplete!

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
Updated with another day of data. Wednesday 9th June is now up to 85 cases, and still incomplete.

It seems likely that once all the test results are in, Cornwall will have had more cases in one day at some point this week than it had in the whole of May.

This doesn't bode well. Image
Read 5 tweets

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