Thread by @PennyDaflos

Have BC's COVID cases & deaths really been that much lower than QC, or have they been looking harder?
That's one of the big questions arising from a bombshell report by @MoriartyLab et al, who believe the death toll could be DOUBLE.
1/@CTVVancouver #bcpoli
bc.ctvnews.ca/it-s-really-di…

Their peer-reviewed paper to @RSCTheAcademies is dense and complicated and the result of many months of work (I started talking to Moriarty about this in early spring).
Read it for yourself here: 2/ rsc-src.ca/en/covid-19-po…

It's been no secret the excess death rate in BC and Canada has been high. @stats_canada has been saying so since March. The question is, what have those people died from?
The paper's scope was ppl 45+, from Feb 1-Nov 30 2020, adjusted for opioid deaths. 3/
bc.ctvnews.ca/851-deaths-thi…

Could it be delayed hospital visits and other factors?
Yes, but testing for COVID anti-bodies in BC suggests they're on track and other countries w excess deaths are attributing most to COVID, as is QC
Thing is, BC's data collection is so scant, there's no alt explanation yet. 4/

In March, Dr. Henry gave a modelling update after one year of COVID and said "looking at the people who've died and our death rates in British Columbia compared to other provinces, we have have tried and maintained a low and steady rate."
10% had the cause as "pending." 5/

"Ok, maybe that's possible but double the deaths seems like a lot."
It's a shocking estimate, for sure. But BC's testing has been way below Canada's average (which is low compared to other wealthy countries) and the authors point out many seniors have atypical symptoms. 6/

The authors posit most of the uncounted deaths were likely among older people living at home and folks living in racialized neighbourhoods, all of whom were never tested when they died.
It's too late for that, so this very complex backwards analysis with numbers is necessary. 7/

Where does QC come in? They have much faster, more thorough data than other provs, according to @MoriartyLab. BC is among the worst, but the other provinces don't have much to brag about. Look at the conclusion the report came to (note: BC doesn't collect race-based C19 data) 8/

Through the pandemic, BC has been tremendously reluctant to release detailed COVID-19 information and has only done so grudgingly after many months of intense criticism, like this. 9/
bc.ctvnews.ca/show-your-work…

"The pandemic is basically over, why does this even matter?"
I'm glad you asked! If we're this slow on recognizing and reporting COVID deaths, imagine the health implications for other illnesses and situations.
@MKaramouzian makes this very excellent point: 10/

The idea there've likely been many more C19 deaths in BC & Canada won't be a surprise to a lot of people.
We likely won't know official government #s for at least a year, that's how behind BC data is.
Is that acceptable?
Many countries require full info 1 week after death. 11/

A final thought from @MoriartyLab on the likelihood of undercounted COVID deaths: "We’re a high income nation. This was a last-resort warning signal that we had in Canada, and it completely or largely didn’t work. We cannot let that happen again.” 12/12
bc.ctvnews.ca/it-s-really-di…