1/ Buffett: "We learned a long time ago that you can't make a good deal with a bad person. Just forget it. Now, if you think you can draw up a contract that, that is going to work against a bad person, they're gonna win. They probably enjoy litigation." cnbc.com/2021/06/29/cnb…
2/ Buffett: "The bad guys win. They know more games. They may lose eventually. but it's no way to spend your life."
This interview was recorded after the annual meeting in May and only really covered new ground on Archegos. I need to read it to be able to summarize it for you.
3/ I've tried to make it seem like Buffett and Munger are on Twitter through me since it's educational for some people.
Why do I do this? It just happened as I saw people misinterpret.
If you think they are going to say something new every time in every comment, get serious.
4/ This is core to Buffett/Munger:
"We made a lot of money. But what we really wanted was independence. What really is great is if you can do what you want to do in life and associate with the people you want to associate with in life. That beats 25-room houses and six cars."
5/ MUNGER: "We have accidentally created an experiment in how well a really big place can be run on a very non bureaucratic basis with extreme decentralization. We're an extreme test case."
BUFFETT: "We want to trust people. Occasionally trust is misused. But net, it's worked."
6/ MUNGER: "What if we'd copied the normal corporate centralized management system?"
BUFFETT: "I wouldn't have wanted to work there. I'd resign. Or been fired. I would rather be in a jail cell with a few people who are interesting and plenty of reading material."
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1/ Teledesic didn't go bankrupt as Elon claimed at Mobile World Congress today. The board of the company decided it could not be financed with an attractive outcome at that time and hundreds of millions of dollars of capital was returned to shareholders. 25iq.com/2016/07/23/a-d…
2/ Elon is just misinformed and I assume zeto ill intent on his part.
Teledesic cleared regulatory and other hurdles that make Starlink, OneWeb and Kuiper possible today. The Teledesic peak accomplishment was in 1995 at the WRC where the ITU allocation for NGSO FSS was obtained.
3/ What did Elon Musk say at MWC today? The link to his session is here: Listen carefully to what Starlink is designed for, especially who the target customers are and how capacity is distributed. The biggest challenge is creating a successful business.
1/ A orders chips. Supplier says "supply is getting tight." A triples order to store them in a warehouse. Supplier tells other customers supply is even tighter. They order extra chips. Quickly there are more chips in warehouses than toilet paper in garages during the pandemic.
2/ Intel's Gelsinger: "I don’t expect the chip industry is back to a healthy supply-demand situation until ’23. For a variety of industries, I think it’s still getting worse before it gets better.”
Are chips in warehouses the prime cause of the shortage? No. Demand is higher.
3/ "Software eating the world" means rising demand for chips.
I'm skeptical that this increase in chip demand is "transitory."
1/ "We’ve successfully deployed 1,800 or so satellites and once all those satellites reach their operational orbit, we will have continuous global coverage, so that should be like September timeframe." SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell observer.com/2021/06/spacex…
2/ "Elon Musk will list SpaceX’s Starlink, when its cash flow is reasonably predictable, the billionaire entrepreneur said on Wednesday. 'Going public sooner than that would be very painful. Will do my best to give long-term Tesla shareholders preference.'"reuters.com/article/busine…
3/ Shotwell explained that the challenge in simply keeping humans alive in a human settlement on Mars or the moon would create plenty of infrastructure needs. "It’s the most extreme camping situation ever, where you have to bring your own air to breathe." afr.com/chanticleer/wh…
1/ When you hear someone say "I don't do a DCF" what they often mean is they don't go through the valuation process you see in a sell-side investment banking report from an analyst based on SWAGs (silly wild ass guesses).
But rational investors still use a DCF based process.
2/ "Customer-based valuation refers to the use of customers as the atomic unit of analysis to estimate the valuation....determine the value at a customer level, and then scale that up to the number of customers to determine the overall value of a business."tanay.substack.com/p/customer-bas…
3/ "Customer lifetime values are dynamic: They are estimates applicable to a moment in time, and not completely precise."
"The value of a customer tends to be very sensitive to churn (existing customer lifetime is just 1/churn) and so be conservative when estimating churn."
My 93 year old father just gave me permission to reveal a Griffin family secret:
You create incredible value without any monetary cost, fiat or otherwise, by being kind to people, being trustworthy, showing up for causes you believe in and standing up for what's right.
Here's an easy example. You see a great aunt. She is struggling. Her life has been hard. Whatever she is wearing you say: "Wow! That's a fabulous outfit. You look great!"
You just printed happiness at zero cost to you. If you don't make the effort to be kind, you're a damn fool.
Here's a hard example. You have a close friend or family member who is struggling with something in their life. Taking the time to listen and be a stand-up human being is what you do. You keep their trust by being trustworthy. You are creating value in this hard situation too.
My take: People trading based on memes are old human traits wrapped around a word that isn't as old. If fashion is combined with a story and Keynesian beauty contests you have a way for people to make decisions and entertain themselves. Stories are eternal.amp.ft.com/content/e33046…
"How durable is this meme phenomenon?" My take is it isn't new. Like many things it is just human nature amplified by the Internet. Since neither human nature and increased connectivity aren't going away, memes are here to stay. Keynesian beauty contests also weren't new.
"The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little,” Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow.”
“No one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story.”