This hearing today reflects a wild mix of deeply flawed science
RCP8.5 & Billion-dollar disasters
Addressing Climate as a Systemic Risk: The Need to Build Resilience within Our Banking and Financial System | Financial Services Committee financialservices.house.gov/calendar/event…
RCP8.5 & Billion-dollar disasters
Addressing Climate as a Systemic Risk: The Need to Build Resilience within Our Banking and Financial System | Financial Services Committee financialservices.house.gov/calendar/event…
The hearing is on legislation that would, among other things, create a powerful new technical committee composed of 5 climate scientists and 5 economists that would create scenarios with huge impact on US finance policies -- this is all sorts of problematic 
The legislation also mandates the content of the scenarios: 2 policy scenarios, one NDC and one a conventional BAU
These mandated scenarios could only be updated once every 3 years
Why tie the hands of expert advisors like this? Imagine a scenario produced Dec 2019 - would've been outdated in a month with Covid
Why tie the hands of expert advisors like this? Imagine a scenario produced Dec 2019 - would've been outdated in a month with Covid
Central bank stress testing of course makes good sense
But the idea that climate scenarios overseen by a board of 10 experts is to become central to financial oversight and regulation would create far more near-term systemic risk than climate change itself
But the idea that climate scenarios overseen by a board of 10 experts is to become central to financial oversight and regulation would create far more near-term systemic risk than climate change itself
To be clear this is not just risk disclosure, this is outsourcing financial decision making to ... climate scenarios. Wild.
No part - none, zero, zilch - of the increase in the costs of weather-related disasters in the US or globally has been attributed to climate change
Refs follow ...
Refs follow ...
Pielke 2018. Tracking progress on the economic costs of disasters under the indicators of the SDGs. Env.Haz
doi.org/10.1080/174778…
Pielke 2021. Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020: a literature review and assessment. Env.Haz. doi.org/10.1080/174778…
doi.org/10.1080/174778…
Pielke 2021. Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020: a literature review and assessment. Env.Haz. doi.org/10.1080/174778…
And here is a short summary:
forbes.com/sites/rogerpie…
forbes.com/sites/rogerpie…
And problems with misuse of scenarios in financial regulation:
ft.com/content/a82a7b…
ft.com/content/a82a7b…
Climate change is real and poses serious risks
But this reality does not create a "critique-free zone" where proposed policies get a free pass from scrutiny & bad science runs free
Au contraire, the importance of climate demands both good science & good policy
/END
But this reality does not create a "critique-free zone" where proposed policies get a free pass from scrutiny & bad science runs free
Au contraire, the importance of climate demands both good science & good policy
/END
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
