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Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
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1 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
🚨New Paper coming ... @ISSUESinST
by @jritch & me

How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality
A failure of self-correction in science has compromised climate science’s ability to provide plausible views of our collective future

I'll post as soon as out of production ...
Our new paper is a tl;dr summary for a broad readership of our recent 21,000-word piece in ERSS on how climate scenarios got off track
doi.org/10.1016/j.erss…

If you are not one of the 7 people who read that magnum opus, then our new paper is for you
When published, I'll also post an accompanying bibliography of our work over the past 20 years on the use/misuse of predictions and projections in climate research and policy

Stay tuned! 🙏
And the misuse of climate scenarios is not just some esoteric academic issue

Just yesterday the US Congress held a hearing on legislation that would *mandate* the continued use of misleading scenarios to guide policy 👀🤷‍♂️

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
2 Jul
Kennedy, M. C. (2017). Cannabis: Exercise performance and sport. A systematic review. Journal of science and medicine in sport, 20(9), 825-829.

“Conclusions:THC does not enhance aerobic exercise or strength”

jsams.org/article/S1440-…
The inclusion of THC on the WADA prohibited list is part of a moral crusade, WADA freely admits

Included on list not because they are doping per se but, “because they are frequently abused in society outside the context of sport”

wada-ama.org/sites/default/… Image
The WADA committee recommending THC inclusion on prohibited list for reasons of morality includes people who also played a role in banning Caster Semenya — another moral crusade

Mostly white men from US/UK/Australia, elite sport vests too much power in a small subset of people Image
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
30 Jun
This hearing today reflects a wild mix of deeply flawed science

RCP8.5 & Billion-dollar disasters

Addressing Climate as a Systemic Risk: The Need to Build Resilience within Our Banking and Financial System | Financial Services Committee financialservices.house.gov/calendar/event…
The hearing is on legislation that would, among other things, create a powerful new technical committee composed of 5 climate scientists and 5 economists that would create scenarios with huge impact on US finance policies -- this is all sorts of problematic
The legislation also mandates the content of the scenarios: 2 policy scenarios, one NDC and one a conventional BAU
Read 11 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
29 Jun
Wow
I didn't realize the magnitudes here

Much faster scientific progress results when safety standards are less strict according to Baric

This is why biolab safety regulations cannot be left to the research community alone

technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/102…
So not all pseudoviruses apparently
@zeynep
Remarkable statements
1. Under China biosafety regulations apparently novel viruses assumed to be relatively safe (BSL-2) until proven risky
2. US funded research follows laws of host country and not US biosafety regulations ... would seem to create poor incentives for scientists
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
28 Jun
Part 2 of my series on trans athletes:

My position is that regulation is the only approach consistent with human dignity as expressed in IOC policies, international law and the values expressed by the Olympic Movement.
I’d welcome hearing the law and policy-based case for an outright ban

Yes I’ve heard ad nausem the case made based solely on science, but not on law and policy
While reasonable people can disagree on this issue, it is unethical in my opinion for academics (in particular) to focus obsessively on individual athletes following the rules or seek to inflame the intensity of what already is a debate full of vitriol
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
24 Jun
I have just read Preventable by @ASlavitt
My review to come

for me, the most remarkable thread through the book details the work of a "shadow science advisory network" that in effect replaced functions that the derelict Trump admin should have been doing
Slavitt explains how his network communicated both behind the scenes (in open channels to Kushner, Birx etc) & out in public, including these 2 USA Today columns

1-#stayathome usatoday.com/story/opinion/…

2-#opensafely usatoday.com/story/opinion/…
Slavitt details how Trump administration officials, governors, members of Congress and others were in constant contact with him & his network for expert guidance on pandemic response

As well, Slavitt had access to federal agency leaders, WHO, international leaders, etc.
Read 6 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
23 Jun
For those folks complaining that a single trans athlete at Tokyo is squeezing out the participation of a non-trans athlete ... let me know when you start complaining that at Tokyo there are (according to IOC) 267 more male athletes than female athletes, squeezing out ~133 females
Reminder instant mute policy is on, so don't be a jerk
And in the Paralympic Games Tokyo 2020, there will be 836 more men than women participants, squeezing out ~418 women

So you care deeply about fairness in elite sport participation? Great

Here are ~550 P/Olympic spots taken by men that (in fairness) should go to women

Outraged?
Read 4 tweets

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