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Thomas Shugart Profile picture
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30 Jun, 4 tweets, 1 min read
When potential adversaries tell you what they are going to do, you should believe them—even if it's inconvenient to do so
Oh btw... navalnews.com/naval-news/202…
and... news.usni.org/2020/10/12/chi…
and...

(Note, these are not 3 different stories about one shipyard's expansion, they're 3 stories about the ongoing or planned expansion of 3 different shipyards.) thediplomat.com/2021/01/third-…

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More from @tshugart3

Thomas Shugart Profile picture
2 Jun
A little trip down memory lane:
One doesn't have to follow very closely the state of the U.S. Navy to know that it—and the generations-old U.S. naval primacy that has largely underwritten the modern world as we know it—is facing immense challenges now and in the future.
Over recent years China's PLA Navy has overtaken the USN in sheer numbers... cnn.com/2021/03/05/chi…
...and over a long enough timeline is on pace to do so in sheer tonnage as well, having launched more than 50% more tonnage of warships than the U.S. over the 5 year period 2015-2019: cnas.org/publications/c…
Read 45 tweets
Thomas Shugart Profile picture
30 Apr
Well, might as well chime in on today's discussion of this article about the potential abandonment of Taiwan to the PRC.

I'll stick mostly to where I disagree with specific military assessments which underpin some of the article's policy recommendations. foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/…
Let's start with some assumptions in assessing the military balance.
Since the core of the article is giving up on the idea of defending Taiwan, IMO assessments of the PRC threat to other allies should be based on the military situation post-incorporation of Taiwan by the PRC.
This matters a great deal: Dr. Glaser assesses that the defense of Japan should be straightforward. But while this is true *now* it would become much less so in the case of PRC control of Taiwan.
Read 26 tweets
Thomas Shugart Profile picture
21 Mar
A few thoughts on @FareedZakaria sunny assessment of the US-China military balance, as expressed here and...
...in this recent @washingtonpost column on the same topic. washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-p…
In general, Dr. Zakaria's assessment of the balance is limited both in its consideration of the fluid nature of the competition and in its understanding of the China's focused efforts to neutralize the traditional markers of American military power which he cites.
Read 17 tweets
Thomas Shugart Profile picture
18 Feb
My written testimony for today's @USCC_GOV hearing on cross-Strait deterrence is now available on the commission's web site. You can see it here: uscc.gov/sites/default/…
If you've been following me for a while, you'll see some familiar themes, as well as some new material and information.
My overall assessment of the state of cross-Strait deterrence, which is underlaid in large part by the associated military balance, is that we're entering a period of deep uncertainty.
Read 15 tweets
Thomas Shugart Profile picture
17 Feb
Any ideas out there on what this new building is near the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka?

It's pretty big, over 300m long. Most recent image is from 8-2020, with other images from earlier in and before construction.
Here it is in relation to the port. You can see how big it is in perspective.
I somehow never noticed this before. Apparently a few years back before it got overgrown and altered, it was a clearer "China SLK", indicating a China-Sri Lanka joint venture, comity, etc.
Read 5 tweets
Thomas Shugart Profile picture
16 Feb
As I said within this article, “When seen in combination with the ongoing major expansion of China’s nuclear submarine shipyard capacity, an expansion of China’s diesel submarine production capacity as well may point toward...
...a strong effort to try to erode the advantage in undersea warfare that the U.S. and its allies currently enjoy.”
Here's a comparison of the rough size (as best I can tell) of the two shipyards, the older one in green and the newer one (roughly 8X larger) in red. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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