It’s worrying to see incidence appear to increase after a long period of stability or slow decline, and especially concerning that it is increasing across almost all age groups. Daily average case count 387, up from 311 one week ago. 1/4
Incidence is increasing across all age groups from 5 to 70 years of age, notably in those age cohorts where there are significant numbers of partially vaccinated people, a reminder of the importance of that second dose, and that delta exploits the vulnerability between doses. 2/4
Growth rate is estimated at about 2% per day, reproduction number 1.0-1.2. The level of infection seems to be growing again, almost certainly driven by the increased transmissibility of the delta variant, spreading in the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated. 3/4
A reminder, if we needed it:
-delta is dangerous
-the basic measures work: limiting contacts, social distance, no crowds, masks, hand hygiene, outdoors and ventilation
-you’re not protected until after your second dose
-we need higher levels of vaccination to suppress delta. 4/4

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More from @President_MU

30 Jun
It has been a difficult and disappointing week for many, as the rise to dominance of the delta variant has delayed plans for wider reopening; but the likely impact of delta is stark, and caution is well advised. 1/36
We use scenario models to help NPHET and Government think quantitatively about risks and likely disease trajectories and impacts. The short form: we use a number of standard models, they are already published, and the effect of vaccination is included. 2/36
The first is a standard homogeneous population SEIR model. This considers the population, as a whole, moving between different compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), where you have the virus but cannot yet spread), infectious (I) and recovered (R). 3/36
Read 36 tweets
14 May
Dr. Mina, you have inferred a great deal about my knowledge and motivation from one tweet; fair enough, it may not have been my finest moment in pandemic communications. Nonetheless, a few points of clarification and response. 1/15
First, there is a context. This is not about antigen testing in general, which does have and will continue to have a role in our management of the pandemic. 2/15
This is about the uncontrolled and unsupported sale of antigen tests by a supermarket chain, and their (one hopes tongue-in-cheek) response to advice from @CMOIreland not to use them, as a negative test might give false reassurance that you are free of infection. 3/15
Read 15 tweets
12 May
A lot of reasons to be optimistic. While incidence is relatively high, it is stable, due to our collective efforts to minimize transmission. If we remain careful, and keep each other safe, we can see this through the few weeks until vaccination offers us greater protection. 1/4 ImageImage
Incidence has remained stable through April, and test positivity below 3% despite intense testing. The numbers in hospital and ICU are decreasing; importantly, daily admissions remain low. 2/4 ImageImageImageImage
The recent increases in incidence in children and adolescents seem to be transient, and incidence in these age groups is now trending back towards the population average. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
9 Apr
We have looked carefully at incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children in recent weeks for any impact of the phased return to the classroom. The data, and thorough public health investigation, confirm that schools remain a low-risk environment. 1/16
Schools are low risk because of the mitigation and protection measures put in place by teachers, principals, families, general practitioners and public health doctors. 2/16
The data show a moderate and transient increase in cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection reported in children, not directly because of the return to in-person education, but due to increased detection, or case ascertainment, related to an increase in testing. 3/16
Read 16 tweets
12 Dec 20
Let’s protect the vulnerable. Keep your contacts to a minimum between now and Christmas and then celebrate with a small circle. Meet outdoors if you can. If indoors: limit numbers and duration, use masks and keep your distance, gentle natural ventilation. 1/5 Image
It’s good that numbers in hospital and ICU are falling. Behind each number is a human story of illness and loss. Hospitalisations lag behind cases, and sadly what we are seeing now is the impact on older and vulnerable people infected towards the end of the recent surge. 2/5 ImageImage
A semi-log plot clearly shows the delay between rising cases and rising hospitalisations, and equally the delay between the suppression of infections in the community and the decline in the number of severely ill people in hospital. 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
19 Oct 20
The move to Level 5 restrictions was a difficult decision for Government, and is very hard for people whose lives and livelihoods are most affected, but it was necessary to interrupt uncontrolled exponential growth of the pandemic. 1/5
We can, collectively, suppress transmission of the virus again, if we fully enter into the spirit of these measures, and eliminate, for the next six weeks, close contacts other than our household, ‘bubble’, school or college, or essential work. 2/5
Our modelling shows that to make a success of this, we need get viral transmission down to very low levels. A reproduction number of 0.9 or 0.7 won’t be enough, we need to aim for R = 0.5. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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