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1 Jul, 5 tweets, 2 min read
1/4 This should liven up discussions between Boris and Angela Merkel in Downing St tomorrow...

EU vaccine passport excludes 5m Britons given Indian-made AstraZeneca jab #COVID19 telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
2/ There's nothing wrong with Indian doses but they are not authorised by the EMA and do not qualify for the EU's digitised passport launched today.

You can check if you received one by looking for the batch codes 4120Z001, 4120Z002, 4120Z003 on your vaccine card or NHS app
3/ Here's the government document that authorised the imported doses for use in the UK only, quietly changing their branding in the process gov.uk/government/pub…
4/ If you think Brits are facing trouble (and some may be), think of all the Asians and Africans who have received the same vaccine via the Covax initiative.

It's time for the EU to get on and authorise the Covishield AstraZeneca jab and include it in its vaccine passport scheme
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More from @PaulNuki

Paul Nuki Profile picture
14 Jun
1/4 Latest modelling from Sage is out. Key points:

➡️Relaxation on 21 June threatens a large resurgence in infections and admissions
➡️In all scenarios, even a short delay results in a drop in hospitalisations and deaths
➡️4wk delay cuts peak in admissions by 33-50%
2/ Looking at Warwick, there's a focus on vax effectiveness against Delta. Like transmission, it makes a big difference. Default assumptions take us close to 1st peak, pessimistic ones well over it...
3/ Here is the impact of delaying Step 4 by different periods. Moving back 4 wks (yellow line) takes us below 1st wave peak for all vax effectiveness scenarios
Read 5 tweets
Paul Nuki Profile picture
1 Jun
1/ Some great infographics in this piece for those interested in the challenge of vaccinating the world. A quick thread...
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
2/ First, the extent to which vaccine manufacturers overestimated early supply is horribly marked - and explains many a dashed expectation...
3/ On the other hand, we will - by the end of the year - have enough vaccine for everyone on Earth. No small achievement...
Read 9 tweets
Paul Nuki Profile picture
30 May
1/ Lots of debate as to why ~40,000 vulnerable people died of Covid in care homes in England and Wales and who was to blame. Yet the road to this particular tragedy is well documented. A thread...
2/ First, it's important to note the cull of care home residents is a failure on the gov's OWN terms. As detailed below, Whitehall never planned to stop a new virus. But it was, from 2017, supposed to have plans in place to protect care homes
3/ How do we know there was supposed to be a plan? Because it is one of the key recommendations to have come out of Excercise Cygnus, the 2016 dry run for a pandemic. In short, Whitehall ordered itself to produce a plan for care homes assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 19 tweets
Paul Nuki Profile picture
25 May
1/ Gosh, I see tomorrow's Commons spectacular is to be co-chaired by Jeremy Hunt. This is odd because in the field of pandemic planning (which he ran between 2012-2018) he is best styled as not so much as grand inquisitor but *chief defendant* ...
2/ Mr Hunt is huge on the "everything-would-have-been fine-if-it-had-been-flu" defence. This after all was the title of our plan - the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011....
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
3/ But this is tosh. It's no defence at all and it is important to understand why.
First, influenza comes in a huge range of different forms. It can be fast or slow, mild or devastating. This is true of seasonal flu but especially so for pandemic varieties ...
Read 8 tweets
Paul Nuki Profile picture
24 May
1/ There's a lot of balls circulating about the UK's pandemic response and specifically *herd immunity*. Yet most of it is fully documented. Here's a thread pulling together some of the key points...
2/ Did the UK have a herd immunity strategy? YES, it was always the default. We had no other plan. The idea of suppressing the virus via lockdown etc was made up on the hop in late March when it became clear the NHS would be overwhelmed. Everyone knows that.
3/ Why did we not have a suppression plan? This is more interesting and the answer is that the DH/PHE/Cab Office explicitly rejected the idea when it reviewed the nation's pandemic strategy in 2010/11 assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 17 tweets
Paul Nuki Profile picture
22 Apr
BREAKING: New data on UK variants out from PHE....

1/ South African up 70 on last week, as results of surge testing in London start to come through...
2/ India up 55 to 132 total. Rapid growth, albeit from a low base...
3/ P1 from Brazil up 20 to 60
Read 4 tweets

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