+Labour win Batley & Spen election+
Close election, sees conservative vote drop by enough to wipe out the spoiling action of George Galloway’s socially divisive “Workers party”.
Close election, sees conservative vote drop by enough to wipe out the spoiling action of George Galloway’s socially divisive “Workers party”.
2/
Decline in LibDem, Greens & independents vote suggests (at this stage) enough people switched to help Labour candidate over the line as Labour vote declined under the assault of a combined right wing & far left support for Galloway.
Decline in LibDem, Greens & independents vote suggests (at this stage) enough people switched to help Labour candidate over the line as Labour vote declined under the assault of a combined right wing & far left support for Galloway.
3/
Interestingly the right wing vote split between at least 5 parties helped Labour over the line.
Had UKIP, English democrat & For Britain & Jayda Fransen not stood, the Conservatives could have taken the seat.
Result:
The right wing split enough to cancel out left split.
Interestingly the right wing vote split between at least 5 parties helped Labour over the line.
Had UKIP, English democrat & For Britain & Jayda Fransen not stood, the Conservatives could have taken the seat.
Result:
The right wing split enough to cancel out left split.
4/
I gave up trying to call this seat.
I thought Labour would definitely lose until 7 days ago.
What I suspect is Hancock affair/resignation demotivated lots of tories from voting.
We’ll likely know if the victory was down to that, but at the very least it has to be a factor.
I gave up trying to call this seat.
I thought Labour would definitely lose until 7 days ago.
What I suspect is Hancock affair/resignation demotivated lots of tories from voting.
We’ll likely know if the victory was down to that, but at the very least it has to be a factor.
5/
The reason I was convinced Conservatives would win was the HWD-independents vote would have to go somewhere and I thought that combined with Galloway would see tories thru.
In the end Tories lost just enough votes to ensure Labour could fight off Galloway threat.
The reason I was convinced Conservatives would win was the HWD-independents vote would have to go somewhere and I thought that combined with Galloway would see tories thru.
In the end Tories lost just enough votes to ensure Labour could fight off Galloway threat.
6/
A positive rejoiners can take from this is that the “get Brexit done” impulse in the conservative vote may be far less solid in their support for the conservatives in future.
I’ve banged on about this for months now.
A Tory strategy of relying on “redwall” is likely to fail.
A positive rejoiners can take from this is that the “get Brexit done” impulse in the conservative vote may be far less solid in their support for the conservatives in future.
I’ve banged on about this for months now.
A Tory strategy of relying on “redwall” is likely to fail.
The post 2016 southern drift from Tories + defusing the emotions around Brexit among leave voting labour seats in midlands/north this the key to changing govt in 2024.
Or in other words:
Starmer’s strategy.
Or in other words:
Starmer’s strategy.
And for avoidance of any doubt I’m not a “Starmer groupie”. My voting is purely transactional.
The problem with the Starmer “has failed brigade” is the day after Starmer leaves the Labour Party will face EXACTLY the same problems as it did under Starmer.
The only way is…
The problem with the Starmer “has failed brigade” is the day after Starmer leaves the Labour Party will face EXACTLY the same problems as it did under Starmer.
The only way is…
Labour need to “defuse the emotions”around Brexit in leave voting labour seats, while with the help of LibDems chipping off centre/remainer Tories in the South.
It’s the Blairite 90s strategy..but in a much less benign environment for Labour.
It’s the Blairite 90s strategy..but in a much less benign environment for Labour.
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