If you're interested in that kind of thing, my article on the drivers of aggregate support for the radical right (Chega) in Portugal has just been published by @Res_Pol (open access)
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20… Image
In the article, I explain variation in the vote share of André Ventura in the 2021 Presidential election across Portuguese municipalities. Image
I do find a positive relationship between the % of social assistance recipients and the size of the local Roma community, meaning that the presence and size of "outgroups" (or groups that can be construed as such) are associated with higher vote shares for the radical right. Image
However, there is no relationship with unemployment rates, average incomes, house prices or their variation over time.

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More from @alexandreafonso

29 Jul
Brexit has cut down EU red tape, so people who have been vaccinated in Spain will be able to enter the UK without quarantine, but not people vaccinated with the same vaccine in France because of the prevalence of the Beta variant in Indian Ocean Islands
bbc.com/news/uk-578698…
Slight improvement on people vaccinated through the NHS not having to quarantine but people vaccinated with the same vaccines in another country having to.
This is Mayotte, which is a French departement. Image
Read 5 tweets
15 Jul
Covid infections in the Netherlands by age and vaccination status: mostly the young, not vaccinated
83% of the people who tested positive in July were not vaccinated; 10% were partially vaccinated (1 dose) and 6% were fully vaccinated. rivm.nl/nieuws/aantal-…
This is the distribution of the whole Dutch population by vaccination status. You can clearly see that non-vaccinated are very overrepresented among the infected (source: ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
Read 6 tweets
15 Jul
In the magazine of the Dutch public science funder:
"Science is like an elite sport"
"Which price are you ready to pay to reach the top?"
"Not everyone is good enough, or has the right attitude"
"Who chooses science knows that the price of success is high"
nwo.nl/topwetenschap
"just like top sports, scientists striving for the top put themselves through many hardships. But [says a hockey coach] it is a free choice, no one is forcing you"
Read 5 tweets
13 Jul
Dutch government ditched most containment measures three weeks ago, reopened clubs and bars --> the number of infections goes through the roof --> now the health minister is asking everyone who went partying last week to stay home, isolate and get tested 🤡
Nobody's wearing masks anymore because you don't have to anymore. The Justice Minister sang a song on TV to wave goodbye to the face mask
I dunno, perhaps ditching face masks and reopening clubs and bars three weeks before the school holidays wasn't the best decision. Airports will be crowded and many countries are expected to reassess the risk status of the Netherlands and change entry requirements. Expect chaos.
Read 9 tweets
10 Jul
In the frugal Netherlands, the "test for access" system for discos and bars that cost 700 mio euros is being ditched after only two weeks and the explosion of infections, mostly among young people
Here responsible frugal Dutch youth saying that you can just get your mates to send you a screenshot of a QR code to get in: "party hard with a fake QR code, now just get some chicks"
"Testing for access" was supposed to allow clubs to reopen without any social distancing measures inside. Result: of the 600 people that visited this club one evening, all in principle tested prior to entry, 165 got infected
ad.nl/binnenland/tel…
Read 6 tweets
26 Jun
Great opportunity to show slides from my methods class (1/n)
If you only look at the people infected and see that half of them were vaccinated, you might think the vaccine is not effective. You'd be wrong.
Let's take an example. You're interested in the best strategy to score goals: long balls or short passes?
Read 11 tweets

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