Article rightly highlights QE just as asset swap & that Money is created by Bank lending, not Fed, it also revives interesting debate arguing Dollar not Fiat but Credit money
'Fiat' Money:
1⃣ Into existence because of authoritative decree/sanction/order; no Intrinsic value
2⃣ Not convertible to or backed by other asset or commodity (Nixon Gold Std 1971; Britain 1931)
1⃣ Decree:
Dollars/Money = IOU 'I owe you' from Central Bank CB to Economy =
2/7
=Liability of CB=>‘Credit’ Money
But Dollar/Money = special IOU that everyone in Economy trusts. So yes, we take credit risk on US Govt when we trust Dollar=>‘Credit’ Money
But while there may not be an authoritative decree behind Dollar (so not ‘Fiat’ from that angle)...
3/7
it is Govt authority which brings that trust in the first place, which makes Dollar universally accepted as medium of exchange
So it is NOT:
Authority => Decree/Order => Dollar/Money
BUT it is:
Authority => Trust => Dollar/Money
This Trust is where credit risk creeps in
4/7
2⃣ Convertibility:
Arguments for Dollar not being Fiat using second definition are a bit hazy
If you lose faith in US Govt, can you convert your financial asset (Money/Dollar) into another non-fin goods/commodity. No
Article seems to suggest that we should be fine as...
5/7
...this CB liability (Money/Dollars) is ultimately backed by assets "It’s all transactions on balance sheet, assets for liabilities"
But note that CB liability (Dollars) is backed by Assets (UST/Debt) which are also denominated in same Dollars 6/7
CB can pay back its liability/debt only with more fiat money. You can get your old $100 bill replaced at bank with new $100 bill – but both are still Dollars
Hence:
🔹 Authoritative Decree angle: Dollar not 'Fiat' but 'Credit/Trust' Money
🔹 Convertibility angle: Dollar is Fiat
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▪️ China oil imports from SA ~$45bn pa, ~1.75 mbpd
▪️ What can SA do with CNY received 1. Pay in CNY for Chinese imports/services 2. Diversify FX Reserves into CNY away from USD
2a. Invest back into China onshore say CGBs
+ve for CNY internationalization
[SAMA FXReserves $420bn]
▪️ (Oil in CNY) = (Oil in USD) x (USDCNY FX)
- Oil in CNY=>Shanghai International Energy Exchange, "Shanghai Oil" #SCPA
- Oil in USD=>say DME Dubai Oman Crude Oil #OQD
If Shanghai Oil in CNY is just an FX conversion of Dubai Oil in USD then Oil is still really priced in USD
3/5
#China: Back In Focus
▪️ Poor credit data: Agg Financing CNY 1190bn vs 2200bn exp=>MLF rate cut possible 15 Mar
▪️ Biggest Covid crisis since Wuhan as cases surge
▪️ China Tech & HK stocks beaten down
▪️ Geopol: U.S. warns China
▪️ #USDCNH jumps to break 1m consolidation
1/6
▪️ China reported 3,300 cases on Saturday - worst outbreak since early days
▪️ 17.5 million residents in Shenzhen placed in lockdown till 20 March
#USDJPY: Next big trade or just a puzzle?
▪️ In 21st century, USDJPY spiked up >2% when S&P dropped >2% in a wk only on 9 occasions - last wk was one of them - prob of such occurrence <1%
▪️ Last wk $JPY 114.82=>117.29, S&P -2.9%
▪️ Dethrone Long JPY as macro risk-off hedge? 1/9
▪️ Recent S&P drawdown -12.5% since 3 Jan'22 on hawkish Fed & Russian invasion but $JPY +1.0% with drawdown of only 1.4%
▪️ Regime change post Covid?
- Since Mar'20, $JPY vs S&P regression reveals significant -ve beta
- Previous Fed hikes (2004-06, 16-18) also showed low beta 2/9
#FX/#Rates thru 2016/18 episodes of 'Equity Tantrum' on hawkish Fed: Takeaways
▪️ Short USDJPY best FX trade in both periods
▪️ Short AUDJPY even better
▪️ Short EUR/Long DXY bad idea for risk-off
▪️ Gold/Silver good value here
▪️ Long USDEM not rewarding enuf
▪️ Bonds rally 40bp
In late 2018:
- S&P touched bear mkt in mid-Dec'18 (20% correction)
- Dropped 9% in Dec'18
- Dropped 2.5% on 3rd Jan'19
Then Powell did dovish pivot on 4th Jan'19: Fed "will be patient"
In 2022:
- S&P has dropped 7.73% in Jan'22
- Corrected 8.73% off peak