Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #USDJPY

Most recents (24)

Aslında biraz korkuyu, paniği arttırıp şurayı da baskılasalar , iş tamamlanacaktır ama, zorla tutuyorlar.
Uzatıyorlar işi
Aylık mum ile yapıyorlar tane tane..
Fitil vb atan eden yoktur..
Fitil bekliyorum ama gelmiyor.
Yani şöyle düşen majör enstrümanlardan birisi
aylık mum ile sert fitili aşağı basıp, kendisini çekse !
İş bitecek..

Yapmıyor, vadeye zamana yaya yaya indiriyorlar.
Korku vermiyorlar kimseye..
Read 4 tweets
First up let me just say, I cannot predict the future...

I can offer 12+ years of market experience & nothing more

The $Dxy has positioned itself for a humongous Bullish move...

Major multi year & even multi decade #Dxy breakouts are happening *Right Now*

Charts Below 📈🧵👇
Lets start by looking at the $Dxy itself (Monthly Chart)

On this time frame we are close to breaking out of a 7 year consolidation (when the 2015 rally stalled out)

This failure to make a low, followed by a break higher, tends to create a large amount of short covering...
As shorts close out positions on the breakout & new traders add long positions, explosive moves tend to follow

These are the mechanics behind what some traders refer to as a "Wave 3"

To me it's just mechanics of a successful breakout, but "Wave 3" if it helps understanding...
Read 25 tweets
#USDJPY: Next big trade or just a puzzle?
▪️ In 21st century, USDJPY spiked up >2% when S&P dropped >2% in a wk only on 9 occasions - last wk was one of them - prob of such occurrence <1%
▪️ Last wk $JPY 114.82=>117.29, S&P -2.9%
▪️ Dethrone Long JPY as macro risk-off hedge?
1/9 ImageImage
▪️ Recent S&P drawdown -12.5% since 3 Jan'22 on hawkish Fed & Russian invasion but $JPY +1.0% with drawdown of only 1.4%
▪️ Regime change post Covid?
- Since Mar'20, $JPY vs S&P regression reveals significant -ve beta
- Previous Fed hikes (2004-06, 16-18) also showed low beta
2/9 Image
- Post Covid, reduced (3m) correlation b/w USDJPY & S&P (+ve correl => USDJPY ⬆️, S&P ⬆️)

3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
#FX/#Rates thru 2016/18 episodes of 'Equity Tantrum' on hawkish Fed: Takeaways
▪️ Short USDJPY best FX trade in both periods
▪️ Short AUDJPY even better
▪️ Short EUR/Long DXY bad idea for risk-off
▪️ Gold/Silver good value here
▪️ Long USDEM not rewarding enuf
▪️ Bonds rally 40bp
Dec 2018 Recap:
S&P -11.3% (30 Nov'18 to 3 Jan'19)
2y UST -41bp, 2.78=>2.37
10y UST -43bp, 2.98=>2.55
DXY -1.0%
Oil/WTI +0.30%
BCOM -6.2%
VIX 18=>25 (36 high)
HY OAS +119bp

But Dec'18 episode was late in hiking cycle=>had enough room for a 40bp bond rally. Lets look at 2016

Jan 2016 Recap:
S&P -10.5% (31 Dec'15 to 11 Feb'16)
2y UST -40bp, 1.05=>0.65
10y UST -61bp, 2.26=>1.65
DXY -3.1%
Oil/WTI -13.5%
BCOM -5.85%
VIX 18=>28 (32 high)
HY OAS +179bp

DXY ⬇️ on higher EUR JPY & CHF
Strong bond rally at start of hiking cycle
2/10 flatter but 5/30 steeper
Read 7 tweets
Forex Live 1/5: FX #options expiries for 14 Apr 10am NY cut
There are some sizable ones layered for #EURUSD closer towards 1.1900 but also near current levels, even for tomorrow, so that might attract price action with key resist seen closer towards 1.1990-00 region at the moment
Forex Live 2/5: That said, the dollar looks vulnerable across the board with 10-year #Treasury yields also sitting on the cusp of a soft bottom closer to 1.60%, so there's that to consider.

Going over to #USDJPY, that has seen the pair fall below 109.00 - where there are some
Forex Live 3/5: modest and chunky expiries seen this week.
Technically speaking, the break below 109.00 also sees the pair likely to push lower to test the 23 March low @ 108.40 so this just adds to the conviction.

All of that ties together with general dollar sentiment and how
Read 5 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s highlights
#EURUSD has surged higher to our recovery target of 1.1950/92 – the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 fall, mid-March highs and 55-day average and our bias remains to look for the rebound to ideally end here.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #USDJPY has broken support from the 23.6% retracement of the Q1 rally at 108.99, which is seen exposing more important support at 108.55/33. Failure to hold this latter area would see a top complete.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURGBP not maintains a base above .8643/65 as well as a bullish “reversal week” and we look for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.

#GBPUSD above 1.3783 would see a minor base complete to suggest the trend is shifting sideways.
Read 5 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical FX Views.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.

#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD.
Danske Bank 2/4: #EURSEK - The krona firmly defied last week's substantial dividend payouts, in line with our expectation. Focus shifts to this week's inflation data. We expect #EURSEK to re-establish the 10.10-10.20 range for now.
Danske Bank 3/4: #EURGBP: We would like to go short $EURGBP again if increases continue. Keep an eye on Northern Ireland riots and Scottish Parliament election on 6 May

#USDJPY - spot starting to be priced as it was pre-corona as US yields and oil now move spot.
Read 4 tweets
ING Bank 1/4: #USDJPY: What seems a clear run higher for US Treasury yields warns of $USDJPY retesting 111 this week. Failure in the 110.20/50 area would be a surprise. The highlight of the week will be PM Suga’s visit to Washington – the first leader hosted by President Biden.
ING Bank 2/4: Presumably the pandemic will top the list of discussion topics, though China will be keenly listening for any remarks on Taiwan. The visit comes at a time when #USDJPY is far from any sensitive levels, although Japanese exporters will clearly be a lot happier
ING Bank 3/4: than their counterparts in the US. And it would seem a little incongruous for President Biden to try and talk #USDJPY lower.
Read 4 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s #Forex highlights
#EURGBP not only maintains a base above .8643/65 but the close above .8574 on Friday has also seen a bullish “reversal week” established to reinforce the likelihood for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #GBPUSD maintains a bearish “reversal day” to keep the risk lower in its range with supp seen at 1.3641, then 1.3514.

#EURCHF continues to weigh heavily on the bottom of its recent range at 1.1004/1.0994, below which would confirm a top & a correction lower.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURUSD continues to struggle to clear its 200-day average at 1.1896 and the current strength stays seen as a temporary and corrective move higher.
Read 5 tweets
KBC Bank 1/4: The big reflation trade took a moment to catch its breath yesterday. Circumstances were ideal with no important data scheduled to trigger abrupt market moves. Equities finished broadly unchanged after erasing earlier losses, both in the EMU and the US.
KBC Bank 2/4: Core bond yields traded choppy and below recent (recovery) highs. The US kicked off its bond sales with 3yr tenor. The auction went smoothly but didn’t impact markets. US Treasuries edged higher at the long end of the curve, sending rates marginally lower driven by
KBC 3/4: the real yield component. German yields ended a volatile trading day flat. Peripheral yield spreads widened just 1 bps. #USD traded on the back foot even as risk sentiment was fragile. #EURUSD took out intermediate resist around 1.208 to finish session north of 1.21again
Read 4 tweets
UOB Group 1/4: #EURUSD: Further sideway-trading would not be surprising even though the slightly firmed underlying tone suggests a higher range of 1.2030/1.2085.

#GBPUSD: underlying tone still appears to be positive & there is chance for GBP to edge above 1.3760. That said, next
UOB 2/4: resist at 1.3800 is not expected to come into the picture. On downside,1.3680 low is acting as a solid support and is unlikely to come under threat (1.3710 is already quite a strong level).

#AUDUSD: Upward momentum is beginning to improve and AUD could edge above 0.7730
UOB 3/4: For today, next resist at 0.7765 is likely out of reach. Supp is at 0.7685 followed by 0.7660.

#NZDUSD: Upward momentum has improved & risk is for NZD to move higher. 0.7250 is a solid resist & NZD may not be able to maintain a foothold above this level. Supp is at 0.72
Read 4 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical #FX Views:
#EURUSD - s/t risk is symmetric after the correction in spot. We remain short via 6M seagull, as per our 2021 top trade.

#EURNOK - We remain short but turn increasingly wary of signs of peak potential.
Danske Bank 2/4: Watch broad USD, oil prices, USD real rates and the global reflation theme as indicators for when sentiment could turn.

#EURSEK - remains close to our 1M target of 10.10 as the #Riksbank constitutes a non-event
Danske Bank 3/4: #EURGBP - we remain short $EURGBP but it may take a breather near-term

#USDJPY - $USDJPY took starting to be priced like it was pre-corona as US yields and oil now move spot. Strength of downtrend is fading in line with #USDCNH momentum.
Read 4 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/4: Today’s #Forex highlights:
#GBPUSD has pushed to a new high for the year and above trend resistance at 1.3788, which should reinforce the existing major base for a move to 1.4000, ahead of 1.4302/77 and eventually our core objective at 1.49/1.51.
Credit Suisse 2/4: #EURGBP maintains a bearish “outside day” to reinforce its existing large bearish “head & shoulders” top and we stay bearish for .8609.

#USDJPY has seen a decisive rejection as expected from our first objective of the 200-day average at 105.57 and we see scope
Credit Suisse 3/4: for a deeper setback to the near-term uptrend at 104.20.

#EURUSD maintains its recovery after the bullish “reversal day” from our 1.1945/14 target – the 23.6% retracement of entire 2020/2021 rally – & we continue to look for a recovery from here to test 1.2104
Read 4 tweets
OCBC Bank 1/5: #EURUSD Downside risks averted? Choppy action left the $EURUSD still anchored on either side of the 1.2050 level. Buoyant early Tue, but the 1.2080/90 resistance still intact. Despite negative lead from
fundamentals (German lockdowns etc),
OCBC Bank 2/5: the technical picture may turn positive if the 1.2000 level is not breached again soon.

#USDJPY Upside momentum eased. $USDJPY pull-back extended towards 105.00 overnight after an initial attempt to move towards 105.80. The stalling of the 10y UST yield at 1.20%
OCBC Bank 3/5: may have contributed to the implicit heaviness. The risk-on environment should provide some, albeit limited, supported. Will not turn negative on this pair unless 104.80/00 is breached.

#AUDUSD Bearish bias erased. Riskon and firm commodity complex spurred $AUDUSD
Read 5 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s #Forex highlights:
#USDJPY remains capped as expected at our first objective of 200-day average and November high at 105.59/75 and a pause is looked for here. Big picture,with a bullish “wedge” & “reversal month” in place we continue to look for a break
Credit Suisse 2/5: in due course, with the “wedge objective” at 106.95/107.05.

#AUDUSD reverted sharply higher from the 55-day average, posting a bullish “reversal day” and is now pressuring against the “neckline” to its top at .7683.
CS 3/5: #EURUSD has posted a bullish “reversal day” from our 1.1945/14 tget – 23.6% retraceme of entire 2020/21 rally – & we continue to look for a near-term recovery from here.
We continue to watch #EUR in outright terms closely though as an important top may be close to forming
Read 5 tweets
@borsaninizinden Geç de olsa #DXY için notlarımı siteye yükledim.…

Pariteler hakkındaki yorumumu ise gün içinde bu başlığın altında paylaşırım.
@borsaninizinden Merhaba İbrahim Bey, sizin bu konudaki tecrübe ve birikiminiz kadar sizi izleyenlerin de katkısı olur diye pariteler hakkındaki görüşlerimi buraya eklemeyi düşündüm.

Ancak sayfanızı meşgul ederse kusura bakmayın şimdiden. Buyrun başlayalım:
@borsaninizinden 1) Benim konuya yaklaşımım farklı olduğu için belki farklı fikirler de çıkar hem.

Ancak yeni katılanlar için bu tür pozisyon paylaşımı yapmadığımı, sadece DXY ile ilgili çalışmamı tamamladığı için bunları yazdığımı baştan belirteyim. Sonra yanlış anlaşılma olmasın. 😊
Read 15 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/4: Last week we outlined our reasons for expecting a period of consolidation in #G10FX, having previously been mostly #USD bearish for around 3 months, keeping our key near-term forecasts unchanged (#EURUSD 1.18, #USDJPY 105, #AUDUSD 0.72).
Credit Suisse 2/4: We highlighted factors such as extreme short USD positioning, consensus greenback bearishness and a relative shift in new negative surprises on the Covid news front away from the US and towards other centres such as the EU and Australia.
Credit Suisse 3/4: The debate around US fiscal stimulus also seems to be (very slowly) moving in the right direction towards an acceptable deal, with Senate majority leader McConnell saying he’s ready to support a package despite seeing “some problems with certain parts of it”,
Read 4 tweets
#Deflation unfolding - but as in all moves - we will always see counter-moves or corrections. Last week was such a correction. We must not drop our guard! The economic situation is dire and we are not through the illiquid phase. Major developments ahead! Stay tuned for #HZupdates
It is all about #USD. Last week was a retracement in the new strong spike for #DXY = wave ii (blue). Within days, DXY will likely start strong rally higher - reaching min. 109 within weeks. End target will be reached later this year ~122 #HZupdates
The rally in #DXY is caused by extreme USD shortage. #EURUSD will feel the strength. In fact, it seems to me, that we are about to see a very strong decline in EURUSD within days/weeks to ~0.97-0.98 before a sideways bounce. LT-target remains the same: ~0.85 to be reached this yr
Read 20 tweets
Dear all. #Deflation is here as forecasted. #Oil and #Commodities etc. are declining rapidly towards targets I have put up here in #HZupdates. We are still to see the major fall-outs. The situation is dire! CBs are fully committed to sacrifice the currencies to save the economy!
#Oil has reach the target of ~20 USD. But - I don't think we have seen the bottom yet! Why? Technical. I think we will see a triangle forming as wave iv - before Oil plunges towards its final target ~10 USD. Deflation not done despite massive CB and fiscal intervention! Image
#CRB has also reached the target area. Still, I expect further lows - following some sideways consolidation. Throw-over is to be expected for a Ending Diagonal. The significance of the bottom cannot be over-emphasized. This is a SECULAR BOTTOM - and the final low for inflation! Image
Read 20 tweets
Durup dururken birden yeni bir gündem maddemiz oldu: #Kanalİstanbul
Oysa ekonomideki sıkıntılar, sıradanlaşan hukuk ihlalleri, işkence iddiaları, Doğu Akdeniz’de ve Suriye’de yaşanan endişe verici gelişmeler, iç siyasetteki yeni oluşumlar ... gibi çok daha sahici konular vardı.
Biz Kanal İstanbul’u tartışa duralım ekonomide sessiz sedasız bir gelişme oluyor.
Küresel piyasalarda risk algısı olumluya döner, fiyatlamalar bunu yansıtacak şekilde gelişen piyasa (EM) ekonomileri lehine değişirken TL olumsuz ayrışıyor.
Önce bazı göstergeler:
10 yıl vadeli ABD tahvil getirisi Aralık’ta 20 bps arttı. Yatırımcı güvenli liman olarak gördüğü risksiz varlıklardan parayı çözüyor. Bu aynı zamanda ABD ekonomisine ilişkin durgunluk endişelerinin de yok olduğunun göstergesi. Image
Read 5 tweets
Buenos días Twitter!!

A las 8:30 los #futuros de los #índices apuntan la baja, después de que la #FED anunciase que mantendrá los tipos, pero que los bajará en 2020, vemos que los bancos centrales y los mercados actúan como si hubiese ya una recesión.
Por otro lado, #Trump dio la orden de atacar #Iran esta madrugada, pero más tarde pareció arrepentirse. Nadie sabe por qué. Además de ello, el #sp500 llegó a máximos y los futuros del #Oro superaron los 1400$
El resto de cosas a mirar están asi:

- el #oro sube un 0.08%
- El #petroleo baja un - 0.26%
- #EURUSD plano
- #USDJPY plano
- #bitcoin subiendo un 4.15%, situándose en 9702$, una subida espectacular.
- suben fuertemente el #bono español, el alemán, francés y el estadounidense.
Read 3 tweets
Good morning FinTwit 🙂 Trust you are well! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I hear #Gold has broken up and out - and we are now on the way to new highs.... Gold Bulls are VERY confident - and we see very creative charts to prove the break out. Well - this is how I see it #HZupdates
#Gold has been in a long correction phase starting 2011. Corrections develop in ABC-patterns. Wave B often is a triangle - which get's all the Gold Bulls excited about new highs - just before the major last plunge #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Some analysts seem to think, that #USDJPY must decline when/if #SP500 is to decline or crash. That is not the case! Observe yellow markings #HZupdates
#USDJPY and #Gold have strong inverse relationship. Both have formed triangles since 2015. Now - main direction will continue. USDJPY towards ~154 - and Gold towards ~800 USD #HZupdates
#Gold did bottom in 2015 - but only for a bounce! A "ZigZag-pattern" is defined by A-B-C waves. A from 2011-15 = 5 waves. B from 2015-19 = Triangle (abcde). Now 5 waves down in wave C. Decline may be very strong! #HZupdates
Read 10 tweets
Dear all 😀 Hope you have enjoyed the weekend! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates with perspectives on what I see ahead in markets.
The dominoes have been lined up for some major developments in markets. #USDCNH is a clear indication of this. As expected (look back in #HZupdates), this pair is about to go vertical. Next wave up will be explosive ~8.1 as the first major target. Chinese devaluation?
Another indicator is #AUDUSD where the bottom is about to fall out of. This will be a clear starting signal for the coming deflationary phase, which will be tough on a long range of assets. LT target for this pair is ~0.46 #HZupdates
Read 9 tweets

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