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Colin Davis Profile picture
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5 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Here's the latest update to the graph showing the Covid rate for 10-14 year olds in England. Still doubling every 7 days.
You can see the consistency of the exponential growth in the log plot. I've taken the liberty of extending the projection to July 19th, so that we can contemplate the Path to Freedom.
BTW, if you're wondering why the first graph looks a bit different, see this thread.
And if you really want to see the graph in portrait format ...

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Colin Davis Profile picture
6 Jul
Here's the Covid rolling rate for #Bristol (all ages). It's up to just under 400 per 100K now. This is the linear version of the plot, but it's worth looking at the log version (next) ... Image
The log plot shows that exponential growth is continuing at the same pace. We'll exceed our January peak in a few days (in fact, we almost certainly already have, but have to wait for the 5-day data lag to catch up). There's something else worth noting though ... Image
I already posted this plot, which shows that the rate hasn't been growing quite as fast in 10-14 year olds in the last couple of days. So why is the overall rate for Bristol still growing at the same pace? The answer is that ... Image
Read 4 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
6 Jul
Here's the latest graph of the COVID rolling rate for 10-14 year olds in England. It's gone up again, though not quite as steeply as a few days ago. That's another couple of thousand children testing positive (just in this age group).
Here's the log plot. The *slightly* shallower slope means the current projection is a rolling rate of ~2100 per 100K by 'Freedom Day'. That means over 100,000 10-14 year olds testing positive between now and then. Current estimates suggest ~8000 of them will experience #LongCovid
And if you're one of those people who likes to pretend that #LongCovid doesn't exist, you might instead consider that of those yet-to-be-infected 100K children, somewhere between 500 and 1000 of them will be hospitalised, and 1/4 of those will go into ICU.
Read 4 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
5 Jul
You might notice that the plots I post today look a little different from previous days. Here’s a thread about why that is, with a little bit on scientific communication, psychology and politics, and reflections on my own motivation.
I’ve previously posted plots in portrait format, because I figured a large proportion of views would be on phones. But some noted that Twitter lops off the top of graphs when plots are in RTs, making graphs look rather benign if the post wasn’t clicked on.
So I tried making a landscape version, and asked people which version they preferred.
Read 17 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
28 Jun
[THREAD] I can't understand why there don't seem to be more parents expressing outrage at the UK government's herd immunity experiment on children that is happening in plain sight.

What is going on???
The government's own figures (from ONS) say 8% of infected kids experience #LongCovid. That could be several hundred thousand children.

You don't want that to happen to your children, right? We don't know what the long-term effects are. For all we know, they could be lifelong.
I understand it's not easy for parents to take preventative action. There's the threat of fines, and how does one combine home schooling with work? But also, I suspect people are going with the flow:"other parents are sending their kids to school, so I'd look weird if I didn't".
Read 7 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
28 Jun
Here's how the COVID rate has changed in 10-14 year olds since May. And if you think this is steep, wait until the Govt changes the rules to minimise self-isolation of bubbles. School's throwing a COVID party -- who wants to come? (you have to come) #HerdImmunity @SafeEdForAll_UK
Needless to say, this has real world implications that go beyond charts ...
Read 7 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
27 Jun
Seeing as I've posted a few tweets linking Bristol's COVID outbreak to university students, it's only fair to note that the rapid rise in cases has not been restricted to this group. Here's an age group that I've been following (since it includes my children). Image
Note that the plot in the previous tweet was just Bristol 10-14 year olds. If you're interested in what it looks like for England, here's the graph. Image
In case, you were wondering -- it's not getting any better. Today's update brings the COVID 7-day rolling rate in Bristol 10-14 year olds up to 157 per 100K. Image
Read 4 tweets

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