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Colin Davis Profile picture
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27 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Seeing as I've posted a few tweets linking Bristol's COVID outbreak to university students, it's only fair to note that the rapid rise in cases has not been restricted to this group. Here's an age group that I've been following (since it includes my children). Image
Note that the plot in the previous tweet was just Bristol 10-14 year olds. If you're interested in what it looks like for England, here's the graph. Image
In case, you were wondering -- it's not getting any better. Today's update brings the COVID 7-day rolling rate in Bristol 10-14 year olds up to 157 per 100K. Image
Thought I must have made a mistake, but no, I've triple-checked, and the rolling rate for 10-14 year olds in Bristol went from 157 to 214 overnight. 36% increase in one day? OK, well .. let's see what tomorrow brings... Image

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More from @ProfColinDavis

Colin Davis Profile picture
28 Jun
[THREAD] I can't understand why there don't seem to be more parents expressing outrage at the UK government's herd immunity experiment on children that is happening in plain sight.

What is going on???
The government's own figures (from ONS) say 8% of infected kids experience #LongCovid. That could be several hundred thousand children.

You don't want that to happen to your children, right? We don't know what the long-term effects are. For all we know, they could be lifelong. Image
I understand it's not easy for parents to take preventative action. There's the threat of fines, and how does one combine home schooling with work? But also, I suspect people are going with the flow:"other parents are sending their kids to school, so I'd look weird if I didn't".
Read 7 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
28 Jun
Here's how the COVID rate has changed in 10-14 year olds since May. And if you think this is steep, wait until the Govt changes the rules to minimise self-isolation of bubbles. School's throwing a COVID party -- who wants to come? (you have to come) #HerdImmunity @SafeEdForAll_UK Image
Needless to say, this has real world implications that go beyond charts ...
Read 7 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
24 May
I gather Russell Viner has been on the radio to tell us again about how schools are not a source of COVID transmission. So here are a few graphs about what's been happening in Bolton. First, let's look at which age groups currently have the highest rates of infection.
What a surprise -- it's school children. But note there's a separate peak with a mode among the 35-39 year age group. Which just happens to correspond to parents of school-age children. I wonder where they got it from?
OK, but maybe the direction of transmission is from parents to childrens, you say? No. Look at this graph and observe how infection spread out from children/teenagers.
Read 5 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
19 Mar
Should a 77 year old vicar be sent to prison for defying the court and standing up for the right to protest Govt inaction on climate? This is the question that a London magistrate will be considering tonight. [THREAD]
Rev Sue Parfitt (77, of @CothamParishChurch in Bristol) and Ruth Jarman (a mother of three from Hampshire) are part of Christian @CClimateAction. They were arrested in Sept 2020 and charged with violation of a Section 14 order (an order used by police to outlaw public assembly).
Sue and Ruth were found guilty today (Thurs 18/3). They defied this ruling by filming in court. As Sue says in this video, she is "protesting the complicity of this court. It's not me who's guilty -- the government is guilty".
Read 10 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
20 Nov 20
This was not sudden.

I’ve commented on this article already, but I can’t help venting about the supposed “mystery of Bristol's soaring Covid-19 infection rate”.

There’s nothing “sudden” about it for those who’ve been paying attention.
Over 2 months ago it was possible to see exponential growth in Bristol in the NHS Pathways data:
And the exponential growth in positive cases in Bristol was very clear over a month ago:
Read 11 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
19 Nov 20
Today @BristolCouncil reports 2,252 positive cases from 13,659 tests over the past 7 days. That's a test positivity rate of 16.5%. New York city just closed all their public schools because their positivity rate exceeded 3% (I understand that the WHO recommends a 5% threshold).
Mayor Cuomo takes a strong line: "the decision isn’t just about a school, it’s about a school in an intensely infected community, with a family that’s infected and a candy store that has a high infection rate, on a bus route that has a high infection rate".
It's a striking difference from the "open at all costs" mantra in the UK. independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-n…
Read 5 tweets

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