OBR chief Richard Hughes coming up on Today in a mo, previewing the new Fiscal Risks Report…
Triple Lock uprating due to 8% earnings “anomaly” forecast to coast £3 billion in payments to pensioners, says OBR’s chief Richard Hughes to @bbcnickrobinson on Today... and already no provision for £10bn of ongoing annual extra post pandemic spending...
Important OBR report onto medium term fiscal risks... and covid response
... UK fall in GDP in 2020 second worst behind Spain, worst in G7 reflecting big pandemic health hit
... so UK had second biggest pandemic fiscal rescue package - and the biggest bump to healthcare spending, and employment, less directly to households... but US support, particularly to households much bigger
why UK health spending during pandemic was so much more than similar countries?
UKs health system capacity esp on acute care, below average, well below best prepared in OECD - ie it was needed
*NB v little reflection on this, do we now need £££ for perm better acute care?
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NEW: Bank of England Governor Bailey at Mansion House says economy is “bouncing back rapidly” that inflation rise “will continue through the rest of this year.. further above target” but that this is expected to be a “temporary feature of the bounce back”...
Unexpectedly few references to the football in the Governor’s speech.... but he does cite the competing inflationary impact of the Beckham family ... a 29 year high in personal grooming inflation of 8%, though Victoria Beckham is cutting the avg price of her dresses by 40%
Chancellor at Mansion House: “I see no reason of substance why the UK should not continue to provide clearing services for countries in the EU” - says UK’s principles and values on regulation/ rule of law should reassure
Significant new investment in sector v dependent on EU exports - timed to deal with rules of origin issue that was subject of very last negotiations between PM & VDL. Basically the batteries will need to be British for the car to be exported tariff free bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Strongest commitment yet from Nissan that “generation after generation” of workers in Sunderland will be employed, after this investment…
The questions - how much is the subsidy… as this is around one tenth of battery capacity required to maintain the current size of car industry, will everyone else get same subsidy… and what might happen if in a spat with EU over something else, tariffs were applied…
Opposition calling for Health Sec to be fired by the PM - note we obviously asked the Government, backbench MPs and former aides to defend him - no one was available
UK natural population declined in 2020, after spike in pandemic deaths, and ongoing long term decline in birth rate.
Across all four nations provisional figures show:
689,698 deaths - well up on normal
684,639 births
Natural population fall of 5k ...
v v rare
V v rare. Only happened in one set of figures since WW2 says @jdportes in the late 1970s.
Had to work this out from 3 different data sources - stress figures are provisional - trend is driven by really notable & yet little commented on collapse in fertility, combined with the shocking death rise during pandemic...
Official Government figures released this morning show Foreign Direct Investment into the UK in the year to March, at its lowest level (in terms of annual projects and jobs created) in a decade, at 1,538 projects, down 17% in past year, and down 32% since 2016-17 peak.
The context here was that in the calendar year 2020, for example, UNCTAD reported a 42% fall in global FDI by value - ie a clear pandemic effect - though on this measure (there are many different measures) UK went down to zero, alongside Italy unctad.org/system/files/o…
Past year’s figures show across the board hit to new investments (-23%), expansions (-5%) and M&A (-11%)
But there is also a clear trend since 2016 on the first two on these official numbers...