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Chad P. Bown

6 Jul, 9 tweets, 4 min read

@ForeignAffairs

Chip shortage! The Biden administration and US allies have now committed to work together on semiconductor policy. That will prove hard. Why it's needed, and where to start.

My latest, in @ForeignAffairs 1/
foreignaffairs.com/articles/2021-…

The chip shortage facing automakers heightened the issue's seriousness. But the supply of semiconductors was at risk long before the pandemic, and COVID-19 is only partly to blame for today’s problems.

One of the biggest culprits was a sudden shift in US trade policy... 2/

Trump imposed 25% trade war tariffs on semiconductors beginning in July 2018. The US now imports **half as many** semiconductors from China as it did pre-trade war. (That's billions of fewer chips).

Those missing chips have NOT been replaced by imports from elsewhere... 3/

That wasn't all. The Trump administration adopted a clumsy approach to export controls on semiconductors for national security reasons (Huawei, SMIC).

This led to an acceleration of US chip exports and hoarding by Chinese consuming firms worried about being cut off... 4/

The Biden administration arrives.

Policy cooperation on semiconductor supply chains resilience has been a readout of each of Biden's key leader's summits, beginning in April with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga... 5/

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

Policy cooperation on semiconductor supply chains resilience was a readout of Biden's leader's summit in May with South Korean President Moon Jae-in... 6/

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

Policy cooperation on semiconductor supply chains resilience was a readout of Biden's summit in June with European Union leaders, included as part of the newly established US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC)... 6/

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

With their overarching goal now set, Washington and its partners must turn to the hard work of hammering out the details on a semiconductor policy. Only then will they be able to protect their national security and stave off another economic crisis. ENDS/

foreignaffairs.com/articles/2021-…

oops. here is the NO PAYWALL version link

foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/red…

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Chad P. Bown

@ChadBown

16 Jun

https://twitter.com/helenbranswell/status/1405269082769747969

CureVac news is disappointing. But if it is not a viable vaccine, current constraints to global vaccine production raise an important POLICY QUESTION:

Can policymakers help Curevac reallocate its scarce supplies of vaccine-making inputs to help OTHER companies scale up? 🧵 1/10

https://twitter.com/helenbranswell/status/1405269082769747969

March: White House and European Commission set up a liaison between Jeffrey Zients and Thierry Breton to help overcome input shortages facing vaccine makers on both sides of the Atlantic... 2/10

politico.eu/article/eu-us-…

April: CureVac CEO complains about lack of access to inputs, blaming the Defense Production Act:

“Be it chemicals, equipment, filters or hoses: US manufacturers are obliged first to meet American demand, and that means we are slipping down the list” 3/10

reuters.com/business/healt…

Read 10 tweets

Chad P. Bown

@ChadBown

15 Jun

Monitoring COVID-19 vaccine input shortages: 🧵1/

Novavax said yesterday

"Now that borders are opening up, and all the manufacturers have been trying to increase their capacity- whether it's for filters, whether it's 2000 L bags or media...

This is an industry-wide problem.

...And we're getting better availability of product. It's still tight.

In normal times you would want six months worth of raw material inventory in a production plant, and we don't have that.

But we have weeks at least.

Before we had a week.

So it's getting better." 2/

Source: ir.novavax.com/events 3/

Read 4 tweets

Chad P. Bown

@ChadBown

7 Jun

@ChrisGHRogers

US government was accused of banning exports of vaccine-making supplies, most notably to India. New supply chain data reveals there was never a US export ban. But the episode highlights a problem demanding new policy.

My latest, with @ChrisGHRogers 🧵 1/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…

India is being devastated by the pandemic right now. It needs more vaccines at home, and it needs equipment to make more vaccines for home... 2/

nytimes.com/article/india-…

Worse, Indian companies had also been expected to play a major role in providing billions of vaccine doses to poor countries globally through Covax.

Hopes were high as late as February 2021. By March, hopes were dashed, and the Serum Institute stopped exporting... 3/

Read 23 tweets

Chad P. Bown

@ChadBown

21 Apr

@Aime_Williams

VACCINES 🧵

1) Yes, policymakers & companies must address IP / tech transfer

2) But another bottleneck is how COUNTRIES cooperate to get vaccine manufacturing scaled up globally

Thanks @Aime_Williams for describing a proposal by @TomBollyky & me... 1/
ft.com/content/f230e4…

@TomBollyky

.@TomBollyky and I have proposed a Covid-19 Vaccine Investment and Trade Agreement (CVITA)... 2/

The problem to solve:

The vaccine manufacturing supply chain is complex.

(Reflexively we think "Big Pharma," but that is NOT reality for Covid-19 vaccines)

THIS supply chain is highly fragmented & requires considerable coordination to get ANY vaccines manufactured at all 3/

Read 7 tweets

Chad P. Bown

@ChadBown

18 Mar

@TomBollyky

Vaccine export restrictions and viral variants are the symptoms. The world is struggling to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. What to do?

Scale up 'Operation Warp Speed' globally, to get billions of doses to a world in need.

My latest, with @TomBollyky 1/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…

"Woah!!!," you say.

Let me explain.

The development of several effective COVID-19 vaccines in less than a year is an historic achievement.

Hundreds of millions of doses have been manufactured and distributed in the United States.

The speed and scale is unprecedented...

2/

Yet, understanding the success of 'Operation Warp Speed' requires understanding the fragmented vaccine manufacturing supply chain.

LOTS of small companies. LOTS of critical inputs. LOTS of steps.

One missing input could grind the entire supply chain to a halt...

3/

Read 12 tweets

Chad P. Bown

@ChadBown

8 Feb

In late 2019, China agreed to buy tens of billions of dollars of additional US exports in 2020 under Trump's Phase One deal.

That didn't happen. Here’s why.

My latest 1/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…

First, the good news.

China actually bought more from the US in 2020 than in 2019, including of those "phase one" products.

China even bought relatively more from the US of those goods than it bought from the rest of the world... 2/

But both comparisons are irrelevant for the LEGAL agreement. (Read the text.)

Under the threat of continued tariff escalation, Trump convinced Beijing in December 2019 to commit to an additional $200bn on top of *2017* trade flows—not 2019.

In 2020, China fell 41% short... 3/

Read 15 tweets

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