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Chad P. Bown Profile picture
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18 Mar, 12 tweets, 5 min read
Vaccine export restrictions and viral variants are the symptoms. The world is struggling to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. What to do?

Scale up 'Operation Warp Speed' globally, to get billions of doses to a world in need.

My latest, with @TomBollyky 1/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
"Woah!!!," you say.

Let me explain.

The development of several effective COVID-19 vaccines in less than a year is an historic achievement.

Hundreds of millions of doses have been manufactured and distributed in the United States.

The speed and scale is unprecedented...

2/
Yet, understanding the success of 'Operation Warp Speed' requires understanding the fragmented vaccine manufacturing supply chain.

LOTS of small companies. LOTS of critical inputs. LOTS of steps.

One missing input could grind the entire supply chain to a halt...

3/
What did Operation Warp Speed do?
• Yes, we've all heard about the vaccine sponsors - Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, etc

But, did you know OWS *also* subsidized production capacity of INPUTS:

• Cellular material, mixer bags, bioreactors
• Glass tubing, vials
• Syringes, needles

4/
Operation Warp Speed targeted production capacity expansion for the ENTIRE US vaccine manufacturing supply chain.

(Note: selective use of the Defense Production Act could also unclog some inevitable input bottlenecks.)

Lesson for today: How to scale this up GLOBALLY?

5/
The policy cooperation for global vaccine production is, admittedly, unprecedented.

It needs to coordinate subsidies to

A) countries to increase INPUT production (ingredients & equipment)

B) others to expand OUTPUT (vaccine 'assembly')

AND ensure trade of A) for B)...

6/
Why do we need to subsidize inputs?

Are global input shortages a problem?

Yep. (Bioreactor bags) 7/

ft.com/content/b2f4f9…
Why do we need to subsidize inputs?

Are global input shortages a problem?

Yep. (Lipids) 8/

vox.com/22311268/covid…
Why do we need to subsidize inputs?

Are global input shortages a problem?

Yep. (Syringes) 9/

qz.com/1976718/syring…
One way to accomplish this is to set up a new and enforceable Covid-19 Vaccine Investment and Trade Agreement (CVITA)

(Not just investment facilitation. Subsidies scaling up input production capacity - shortages of lipids, bioreactor bags, syringes, etc are a problem...)

10/
CVITA can draw lessons from US subsidization and coordination of its entire domestic vaccine manufacturing supply chain under Operation Warp Speed. It was not easy to get even that supply chain to work together.

But its success is already clear. ENDS/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
Also, Policymakers:

Learn as we go, including from our mistakes...

• • •

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More from @ChadBown

Chad P. Bown Profile picture
8 Feb
In late 2019, China agreed to buy tens of billions of dollars of additional US exports in 2020 under Trump's Phase One deal.

That didn't happen. Here’s why.

My latest 1/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
First, the good news.

China actually bought more from the US in 2020 than in 2019, including of those "phase one" products.

China even bought relatively more from the US of those goods than it bought from the rest of the world... 2/
But both comparisons are irrelevant for the LEGAL agreement. (Read the text.)

Under the threat of continued tariff escalation, Trump convinced Beijing in December 2019 to commit to an additional $200bn on top of *2017* trade flows—not 2019.

In 2020, China fell 41% short... 3/
Read 15 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
27 Jan
NEW: China’s purchases of US goods were over 40 percent short of its total commitment for 2020 found in the Phase One trade agreement.

Official December US export statistics released today, closing the book on US-China goods trade for 2020... 1/
piie.com/research/piie-…
The Phase One deal has 3 sectoral targets. Of those, China's purchases of US farm products were least bad. (Makes political sense)

According to US export statistics, China's purchases came up short in 2020 by
• 18% for agriculture
• 43% for manufacturing
• 63% for energy

2/ Image
For #TradeTwitter, of interest is the sizeable GAP in farm purchases between Chinese import and US export statistics.

Ie, China's purchases of covered agricultural products reached 82% of target based on US export data BUT ONLY 64% based on Chinese import data. 🤔🤔🤔

3/
Read 5 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
27 Jan
Two ways to view European Commission decision to demand "export controls" on EU-manufactured vaccines

Vaccine nationalism? (worry)

or

A policy to create new information to solve a problem? (hope)

A short thread 1/...

VACCINE NATIONALISM 2/

First, the worry.

Hoarding. The EU is one of the few places that can manufacture vaccines.

To end the pandemic, the EU must **EXPORT** vaccines globally.

A EU vaccine export ban would be BAD. BAD. BAD. BAD. BAD for global public health.
VACCINE NATIONALISM 3/

EU export limits are also not surprising. It was predicted early, often, and by many.

The new policy results from a failure to globally commit to solve the distribution problem, despite Covax efforts.

(eg, this from July 2020)
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Read 10 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
23 Dec 20
More downside to US unilateralism. Even to protect national security.

European semiconductor and equipment makers accuse US of using export controls on Huawei and SMIC to shut them out of the Chinese market, while exempting US companies.

By @YuanfenYang
ft.com/content/7baa8c…
This is one of the fears identified in this piece

👉🏾 piie.com/system/files/d…
Multilateralizing export controls is hard. But the failure to do so could end up undermining the underlying rationale - the protection of national security - and punish American companies' commercial interests in the long run.

piie.com/publications/w…
Read 4 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
17 Dec 20
1/ The US–China trade war thrust the semiconductor industry back into the geopolitical spotlight. But this time was different.

My latest
piie.com/publications/w…
2/ The 1980s began a period in which semiconductors were central to major trade conflicts. First Japan and a Section 301 investigation.

Japan agreed to “purchase commitments” and export restraints. The US even imposed retaliatory tariffs.

Sounds similar to today…or does it? Image
3/ Over time, tariffs for semiconductors and equipment fell globally... Image
Read 15 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
29 Oct 20
Wondering about candidate Biden’s economic policy priorities?

The very great @Titonka joins @CardiffGarcia on @TheIndicator to explain

🎙 PODCAST 🎙 [9 mins] npr.org/2020/10/29/929…
I listened all the way through the episode. Twice. Did not once hear the word “tariffs.”
Part II: President Trump’s economic policy priorities in a second term.

Again, the very great @Titonka joins @CardiffGarcia on @TheIndicator to explain

🎙 PODCAST 🎙 [9 mins]
npr.org/2020/10/30/929…
Read 4 tweets

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