.@TomBollyky and I have proposed a Covid-19 Vaccine Investment and Trade Agreement (CVITA)... 2/
The problem to solve:
The vaccine manufacturing supply chain is complex.
(Reflexively we think "Big Pharma," but that is NOT reality for Covid-19 vaccines)
THIS supply chain is highly fragmented & requires considerable coordination to get ANY vaccines manufactured at all 3/
US government helped coordination and scaling up of US production through Operation Warp Speed.
Billions of dollars of TARGETED US subsidies of "outputs" (vaccines) **AND** all of the "inputs" (vials, bioreactors, bags, cellular materials) needed along that supply chain... 4/
Are there lessons from the US model to now scale up global production - not for HUNDREDS of millions of doses for Americans, but BILLIONS of doses for the world?
*THAT* is where it gets more complicated. Why a Covid-19 Vaccine Investment and Trade Agreement (CVITA) is needed 5/
CVITA needs to coordinate subsidies to
A) SOME countries to increase INPUT production (ingredients & equipment)
B) OTHER countries to expand OUTPUT (vaccine 'assembly')
AND ensure trade of A) for B)...
This requires EXPLICIT international cooperation and incentives. 6/
For more details on our CVITA proposal, please read, share, talk about, poke holes in it, and let us know what you think.
China actually bought more from the US in 2020 than in 2019, including of those "phase one" products.
China even bought relatively more from the US of those goods than it bought from the rest of the world... 2/
But both comparisons are irrelevant for the LEGAL agreement. (Read the text.)
Under the threat of continued tariff escalation, Trump convinced Beijing in December 2019 to commit to an additional $200bn on top of *2017* trade flows—not 2019.
More downside to US unilateralism. Even to protect national security.
European semiconductor and equipment makers accuse US of using export controls on Huawei and SMIC to shut them out of the Chinese market, while exempting US companies.
Multilateralizing export controls is hard. But the failure to do so could end up undermining the underlying rationale - the protection of national security - and punish American companies' commercial interests in the long run.