VACCINES 🧵

1) Yes, policymakers & companies must address IP / tech transfer

2) But another bottleneck is how COUNTRIES cooperate to get vaccine manufacturing scaled up globally

Thanks @Aime_Williams for describing a proposal by @TomBollyky & me... 1/
ft.com/content/f230e4…
.@TomBollyky and I have proposed a Covid-19 Vaccine Investment and Trade Agreement (CVITA)... 2/ Image
The problem to solve:

The vaccine manufacturing supply chain is complex.

(Reflexively we think "Big Pharma," but that is NOT reality for Covid-19 vaccines)

THIS supply chain is highly fragmented & requires considerable coordination to get ANY vaccines manufactured at all 3/ Image
US government helped coordination and scaling up of US production through Operation Warp Speed.

Billions of dollars of TARGETED US subsidies of "outputs" (vaccines) **AND** all of the "inputs" (vials, bioreactors, bags, cellular materials) needed along that supply chain... 4/ ImageImage
Are there lessons from the US model to now scale up global production - not for HUNDREDS of millions of doses for Americans, but BILLIONS of doses for the world?

*THAT* is where it gets more complicated. Why a Covid-19 Vaccine Investment and Trade Agreement (CVITA) is needed 5/
CVITA needs to coordinate subsidies to

A) SOME countries to increase INPUT production (ingredients & equipment)

B) OTHER countries to expand OUTPUT (vaccine 'assembly')

AND ensure trade of A) for B)...

This requires EXPLICIT international cooperation and incentives. 6/
For more details on our CVITA proposal, please read, share, talk about, poke holes in it, and let us know what you think.

ENDS 🧵 /
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…

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More from @ChadBown

18 Mar
Vaccine export restrictions and viral variants are the symptoms. The world is struggling to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. What to do?

Scale up 'Operation Warp Speed' globally, to get billions of doses to a world in need.

My latest, with @TomBollyky 1/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
"Woah!!!," you say.

Let me explain.

The development of several effective COVID-19 vaccines in less than a year is an historic achievement.

Hundreds of millions of doses have been manufactured and distributed in the United States.

The speed and scale is unprecedented...

2/
Yet, understanding the success of 'Operation Warp Speed' requires understanding the fragmented vaccine manufacturing supply chain.

LOTS of small companies. LOTS of critical inputs. LOTS of steps.

One missing input could grind the entire supply chain to a halt...

3/
Read 12 tweets
8 Feb
In late 2019, China agreed to buy tens of billions of dollars of additional US exports in 2020 under Trump's Phase One deal.

That didn't happen. Here’s why.

My latest 1/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
First, the good news.

China actually bought more from the US in 2020 than in 2019, including of those "phase one" products.

China even bought relatively more from the US of those goods than it bought from the rest of the world... 2/
But both comparisons are irrelevant for the LEGAL agreement. (Read the text.)

Under the threat of continued tariff escalation, Trump convinced Beijing in December 2019 to commit to an additional $200bn on top of *2017* trade flows—not 2019.

In 2020, China fell 41% short... 3/
Read 15 tweets
27 Jan
NEW: China’s purchases of US goods were over 40 percent short of its total commitment for 2020 found in the Phase One trade agreement.

Official December US export statistics released today, closing the book on US-China goods trade for 2020... 1/
piie.com/research/piie-…
The Phase One deal has 3 sectoral targets. Of those, China's purchases of US farm products were least bad. (Makes political sense)

According to US export statistics, China's purchases came up short in 2020 by
• 18% for agriculture
• 43% for manufacturing
• 63% for energy

2/ Image
For #TradeTwitter, of interest is the sizeable GAP in farm purchases between Chinese import and US export statistics.

Ie, China's purchases of covered agricultural products reached 82% of target based on US export data BUT ONLY 64% based on Chinese import data. 🤔🤔🤔

3/
Read 5 tweets
27 Jan
Two ways to view European Commission decision to demand "export controls" on EU-manufactured vaccines

Vaccine nationalism? (worry)

or

A policy to create new information to solve a problem? (hope)

A short thread 1/...

VACCINE NATIONALISM 2/

First, the worry.

Hoarding. The EU is one of the few places that can manufacture vaccines.

To end the pandemic, the EU must **EXPORT** vaccines globally.

A EU vaccine export ban would be BAD. BAD. BAD. BAD. BAD for global public health.
VACCINE NATIONALISM 3/

EU export limits are also not surprising. It was predicted early, often, and by many.

The new policy results from a failure to globally commit to solve the distribution problem, despite Covax efforts.

(eg, this from July 2020)
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Read 10 tweets
23 Dec 20
More downside to US unilateralism. Even to protect national security.

European semiconductor and equipment makers accuse US of using export controls on Huawei and SMIC to shut them out of the Chinese market, while exempting US companies.

By @YuanfenYang
ft.com/content/7baa8c…
This is one of the fears identified in this piece

👉🏾 piie.com/system/files/d…
Multilateralizing export controls is hard. But the failure to do so could end up undermining the underlying rationale - the protection of national security - and punish American companies' commercial interests in the long run.

piie.com/publications/w…
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec 20
1/ The US–China trade war thrust the semiconductor industry back into the geopolitical spotlight. But this time was different.

My latest
piie.com/publications/w…
2/ The 1980s began a period in which semiconductors were central to major trade conflicts. First Japan and a Section 301 investigation.

Japan agreed to “purchase commitments” and export restraints. The US even imposed retaliatory tariffs.

Sounds similar to today…or does it? Image
3/ Over time, tariffs for semiconductors and equipment fell globally... Image
Read 15 tweets

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