1/ Our national quality/value program (MACRA) is broken

Most people just complain about its shortcomings, but @Travis_Broome comes up with an elegant, grounded way to fix its biggest flaws

Apply behavioral economics, use virtual groups, lay path to APMs ajmc.com/view/macra-has…
2/ MACRA was a true milestone, and a concept that I still support- instead of artificially capping medical inflation (and then not having the guts to actually see doc pay cuts) lets create 2 paths- a "pay for performance" base and an incentivized alternative payment model track.
3/ But 3 seemingly technical details fundamentally sapped the potential impact of this huge bill.

classic behavioral economics- the impact of an incentive is not just proportional to its size, but also its cost, uncertainty, and delay

MACRA stunk on all counts here.
4/ A lot has been said about the burden of data collection-

As I discussed with @GistHealthcare (gisthealthcaredaily.libsyn.com/monday-june-14…) exceptional physicians might still find meaning in quality measurement (as you might in suffering) but the payments don't come close to costs right now.
5/ Best recent paper with tons of terrific data is from @DhruvKhullar

"It cost practices $12 811 per physician to participate in MIPS.. a general surgeon receiving a PERFECT 2018 MIPS score could a reward of ~$2,000... in 2020"

Crazy.

But...why???

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-…
6/ Docs are ranked against each other; quality payments for high performers were supposed to come from low performers.

@CMSGov didn't have confidence in calling "low performers" -> Nobody got "dinged" -> Nobody gets rewarded either.

Low rewards. delayed. uncertain.

#Trifeca
7/ OK, some people say that's fine. We don't need the MIPS/P4P part to work.

In fact, the whole goal of MACRA was to move docs into advanced alternative payment models. Over there, they get 5% bump automatically, and an opportunity to make a lot more in global risk

same issues
8/ As Travis points out, the 5% AAPM bonus is scheduled to go away. And it's crazy delayed.

A doc who joins an AAPM for 2022 will make that decision this month.

They won't receive their bonus until August of 2024!, a full 3 years after they made the decision to participate. 🤦
9/ We are behind schedule on AAPM uptake (CMS closing new ACO participation in 2 of last 3 years didn't help)

So the paper recommends extending the AAPM bonuses for another 3 years, and making bonus payments no later than 3 months after participation in an AAPM begins.

And...
10/ Here's the elegant part of the policy solution. Make the solution to the MIPS problem the pathway to the AAPM goal
*Use the "virtual group" concept THATS IN THE LEGISLATION (pushed by smart folks like @LenMNichols @RonWyden) but not really used

We proposed details in '16
11/ Grouping practices addresses a huge problem with practice-level quality measurement- small sample sizes.

here's a classic paper from @EveKerrMD @hltqualdoc: ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

and a more recent one for oncology practices by @NancyKeatingMD jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
12/ The idea of creating virtual groups isn't new.

@CareFirst twist on PCMH-group small practices into “Panels,” to create a larger patient population base, encourage peer consultation across practices as well as competition within and across panels.

link.springer.com/article/10.100…
13/ But..."I don't want to be lumped in with other practices I didn't choose!"

That can be a feature not a bug...if you allow practices to "graduate" whenever they want into a risk-taking ACO with other practices of their choosing (APM path!)

(@CareFirst doesn't allow this yet)
14/ You see how that works?

In MIPS, you create the precursor to the organizational structures PCPs need to move to their AAPMs

Instead of the QM smorgasbord, Travis suggests that CMS could extend this approach to the AAPM models that are best for specialists- eg "bundles lite"

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More from @Farzad_MD

19 May
1/ "Federal antitrust oversight has proved inadequate at preventing anticompetitive effects across the health care sector" per @commonwealthfnd

What else can the federal government do, given the difficulty of passing healthcare legislation?

Plenty.
commonwealthfund.org/blog/2021/fede…
2/ in this article, Joseph Kannarkat and I break down all the tools that the Biden administration and @SecBecerra have to address competition beyond antitrust reviews

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-…
3/ first of all, if the Biden administration chooses to elevate health care competition as a priority, it may garner rare bipartisan support.

This is an issue that has support from left (@ZekeEmanuel) and right (@Avik) thought leaders and legislators.
Read 8 tweets
11 Apr
1/ in our continued COVID field epidemiology series

"What's the question?"

April 2021 edition: "Are the vaccines effective against the variants?"

We have wet lab data, (limited) clinical trials reports, but what about field epi?

What epi design/surveillance would answer it?
2/ Why do I think it's "The Question" of this moment for field epi to try to answer?

I'm going to be joining @Bob_Wachter @cmyeaton @inthebubblepod tomorrow in our continuing "Safe or Not Safe" series, and Variant vs Vaccine will make all the difference

3/ I am 100% certain that everything I am saying here is much better understood by city/state epidemiologists @CSTEnews and @CDCgov experts.

But they are too busy to tweet, aren't free to talk openly, and may not control their own work/ resources.

And that's exactly the problem
Read 16 tweets
29 Mar
1/ COVID Deaths are lower than horrible peaks, but seem to have plateau'd- as cases rise in several states are we due for another surge in deaths?

I don't think so.

(vaccines work)
2/ It's important to remember just how much deaths lag infections. Many of the deaths being reported today will have first become infected a month ago, or even longer

The death data does not yet reflect the big surge in vaccine administration that happened in the past few weeks
3/ The recent surge in vaccinations has been impressive, and the group with the highest vaccination rates (appropriately) are the 65+

As @aslavitt46 reported, 73% of elderly vaccinated now (and 36% of adults) 👏👏👏
Read 5 tweets
3 Mar
1/ this is the most detailed description of the lab-leak hypothesis I have seen (and I don't buy it)

It posits a "chopped-and-channeled version of RaTG13 or the miners’ virus that included elements that would make it thrive and even rampage in people?"
nymag.com/intelligencer/…
2/ to be clear, I've seen first-hand-in a 7 month-old baby-the scourge of a lab-produced bioweapon that was exfilitrated (anthrax 2001).

I agree w @mlipsitch position that the risks of creating Gain of Function pathogens w increased infectivity/deadliness outweigh the benefits ImageImage
3/ beyond artful prose and connect-the-dots suggestions, here's the idea:

That a bat virus sample (RaTG13) was manipulated in Wuhan lab to be more infectious through the lego-block addition of key genetic mediators of human infection

But that's not what the sequence looks like Image
Read 7 tweets
1 Mar
1/ It took us over 6 months to have the epi studies that answered these questions.

That's one of the less recognized failures of an institution I revere, the CDC

They should have sharpened the questions, designed the studies and put dedicated epi resources behind them, quickly
2/ It took forever to do a proper serosurvey, to answer the IFR/CFR question

Understanding the primary role of asymptomatic spread was a game changer, took 6 months?

We are *still* debating kids as vectors.

Do we really know if vomiting indicates COVID?
3/ a few months later, we had other questions that needed answering-

Are we improving on timeliness of testing? 

Are we protecting the elderly? Where? (how?)

Is IFR declining within age groups?

Where were the focused surveillance activities to answer these key questions?
Read 5 tweets
22 Feb
1/ COVID has been a public health catastrophe

500,000 extra deaths, taking an average of 13 years each- 6.5 million years of life lost

That dropped US life expectancy by a full year

Did we erase a decade of progress? Will a child born today live a year less than last year?
2/ At first blush, it can seem confusing.

If life expectancy dropped by a year for 320 million Americans, shouldn't that translate to 320 million years of life lost, not 6.5 million?

OTOH, I trust the CDC. Here's the paper cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr…

seems legit. so what gives?
3/ Here's some more data- why did life expectancy plummet in 1917-1918 (by 10 years!) then rebound completely?

Life expectancy is the average number of years a group of infants would live if they were to experience prevailing age-specific death rates throughout their life
Read 8 tweets

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