2/ MACRA was a true milestone, and a concept that I still support- instead of artificially capping medical inflation (and then not having the guts to actually see doc pay cuts) lets create 2 paths- a "pay for performance" base and an incentivized alternative payment model track.
3/ But 3 seemingly technical details fundamentally sapped the potential impact of this huge bill.
classic behavioral economics- the impact of an incentive is not just proportional to its size, but also its cost, uncertainty, and delay
MACRA stunk on all counts here.
4/ A lot has been said about the burden of data collection-
5/ Best recent paper with tons of terrific data is from @DhruvKhullar
"It cost practices $12 811 per physician to participate in MIPS.. a general surgeon receiving a PERFECT 2018 MIPS score could a reward of ~$2,000... in 2020"
7/ OK, some people say that's fine. We don't need the MIPS/P4P part to work.
In fact, the whole goal of MACRA was to move docs into advanced alternative payment models. Over there, they get 5% bump automatically, and an opportunity to make a lot more in global risk
same issues
8/ As Travis points out, the 5% AAPM bonus is scheduled to go away. And it's crazy delayed.
A doc who joins an AAPM for 2022 will make that decision this month.
They won't receive their bonus until August of 2024!, a full 3 years after they made the decision to participate. 🤦
9/ We are behind schedule on AAPM uptake (CMS closing new ACO participation in 2 of last 3 years didn't help)
So the paper recommends extending the AAPM bonuses for another 3 years, and making bonus payments no later than 3 months after participation in an AAPM begins.
And...
10/ Here's the elegant part of the policy solution. Make the solution to the MIPS problem the pathway to the AAPM goal
*Use the "virtual group" concept THATS IN THE LEGISLATION (pushed by smart folks like @LenMNichols@RonWyden) but not really used
We proposed details in '16
11/ Grouping practices addresses a huge problem with practice-level quality measurement- small sample sizes.
12/ The idea of creating virtual groups isn't new.
@CareFirst twist on PCMH-group small practices into “Panels,” to create a larger patient population base, encourage peer consultation across practices as well as competition within and across panels.
13/ But..."I don't want to be lumped in with other practices I didn't choose!"
That can be a feature not a bug...if you allow practices to "graduate" whenever they want into a risk-taking ACO with other practices of their choosing (APM path!)
2/ in this article, Joseph Kannarkat and I break down all the tools that the Biden administration and @SecBecerra have to address competition beyond antitrust reviews
2/ Why do I think it's "The Question" of this moment for field epi to try to answer?
I'm going to be joining @Bob_Wachter@cmyeaton@inthebubblepod tomorrow in our continuing "Safe or Not Safe" series, and Variant vs Vaccine will make all the difference
1/ COVID Deaths are lower than horrible peaks, but seem to have plateau'd- as cases rise in several states are we due for another surge in deaths?
I don't think so.
(vaccines work)
2/ It's important to remember just how much deaths lag infections. Many of the deaths being reported today will have first become infected a month ago, or even longer
The death data does not yet reflect the big surge in vaccine administration that happened in the past few weeks
3/ The recent surge in vaccinations has been impressive, and the group with the highest vaccination rates (appropriately) are the 65+
As @aslavitt46 reported, 73% of elderly vaccinated now (and 36% of adults) 👏👏👏
1/ this is the most detailed description of the lab-leak hypothesis I have seen (and I don't buy it)
It posits a "chopped-and-channeled version of RaTG13 or the miners’ virus that included elements that would make it thrive and even rampage in people?" nymag.com/intelligencer/…
2/ to be clear, I've seen first-hand-in a 7 month-old baby-the scourge of a lab-produced bioweapon that was exfilitrated (anthrax 2001).
I agree w @mlipsitch position that the risks of creating Gain of Function pathogens w increased infectivity/deadliness outweigh the benefits
3/ beyond artful prose and connect-the-dots suggestions, here's the idea:
That a bat virus sample (RaTG13) was manipulated in Wuhan lab to be more infectious through the lego-block addition of key genetic mediators of human infection
3/ Here's some more data- why did life expectancy plummet in 1917-1918 (by 10 years!) then rebound completely?
Life expectancy is the average number of years a group of infants would live if they were to experience prevailing age-specific death rates throughout their life