Thread by @chrischirp

QUICK NE CASE UPDATE BEFORE FOOTBALL:

Cases in NE continuing to grow fast and much higher than all other regions.

It's not just testing - similar pattern seen for positivity rates.

The hotspots are centred around Newcastle / Sunderland area and Hartlepool

There seems to be some (unsruprising) correlation with lower vaccination rates - likely due to age profile of population (e.g. student areas will have lower vax rates).

1st dose coverage below - lighter colour = lower vax rate.

You can see really high numbers from Monday this week in the NE hotspots

And Monday's numbers in the NE also very high overall (compared to some other regions).
Yorkshire showing big recent increase too though.

That said, other regions are catching up in terms of growth rate- SE, East of England, E & W Midlands all have growth rates similar to NE over last week - but from much lower base.

Not clear why NE so much higher - most likely a combo of factors and some bad luck.

Unfortunately very little sequencing data available for NE, but what there is, is Delta.

What we do know is that cases are highest in 15-30 year olds - but also very high now in 30-50 yr olds - similar to last November wave. And rising fast in those and older age groups.

This is translating to very rapid hospitalisation growth in the NE as well.

And sadly this will get worse over next few weeks given rapid recent case increases.

The *overall* better (?!) news is that England growth rates have slowed a bit from over 65% week on week to about 50% this week.

This is still very high, but much better than it was!! /END