THREAD: Something weird is happing in the North East - as mentioned today by @Unusual_Times and it came up briefly in the @IndependentSage briefing today.

But I've looked a bit closer and it's a bit worrying. 1/5
Their cases are rising very rapidly - as are their positivity rates and hospitalisation rates. The last two days are likely undestimates as well due to some test results still to come back. 2/5
If we look at cases on a log scale (where exponential growth is a straight line. Steeper straight lines mean faster growth), we can see that NE starts growing faster beginning of June.

SW grew that fast too - prob due to combo of half term + G7 - but has slowed down since. 3/5
I looked at ages of cases in NE compared to England *without* the NE.

While in both cases are highest in 15-30 yr olds, in the NE the fastest growth in cases in *adults over 30* - going up to oldest age groups.

In rest of England, growth is fastest in school age kids. 4/5
I don't have an explanation for what is different in NE this month. But half term, football etc affects everywhere. The NE has many deprived areas, but so do many other regions.

I don't know why the age profile is different. Any ideas?!

(I don't think it's vax rates). 5/5
PS off to watch the football now. This made me late!

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More from @chrischirp

5 Jul
I was hoping to dig through Sanger variant data for NE today but only 4% of NE June's cases & 19% of May cases have been sequenced so far (compared to e.g 70% & 23% for NW respectively).

This is the lowest of any region for both months - not sure why but it's frustrating. 1/2
It's likely NE rapid rise is a combination of the various factors people have suggested: high deprivation, lower January peak, football, students... but none on its own is unique to NE & start of rapid rise predated football.

But I'd like to be surer it's not a bad variant. 2/2
PS so far, NE looks like just a Delta rise - over 95% of sequenced cases in June were Delta. But as I said, small numbers.
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
THREAD: Where are we in UK with cases, where are we going and should we care?

TLDR: nowhere good, somewhere worse, absolutely yes.

1/24 (yes, I know, another long one. Still worth a read I hope!)
We are at almost 30,000 daily cases again - numbers last seen in mid December.

Cases are climbing steeply. 2/24
They are climbing in all nations now - over the last week growth in all nations was about 70%.

This is clearer when looking at the same plot on a log scale (2nd chart).

It's not just testing- positivity is rising too (note that positivity chart only to 26 June) 3/24
Read 25 tweets
29 Jun
THREAD on vaccination, population immunity & children.

TLDR: Current gov policy seems to be getting to population immunity by vaxxing adults and infecting kids.

Are we really saying better to infect millions of kids than to a) prevent them getting it and b) vax them? 1/8
Ultimately we want to control covid by high percentage of population being immune.

With Delta we probably need 85%+ of population immune (assuming R0~7). Children are 21% of English population.

You *cannot* get to 85% without high proportion of children being immune. 2/8
The top bar shows breakdown of English popn by age - adults are 79% of population. Even if vax were perfect & all adults were vaxxed, you'd still need many children to be immune too.

Bottom bar shows 1 way of getting to 85% popn immunity with optimistic adult vax coverage. 3/8
Read 9 tweets
28 Jun
THREAD Confirmed cases in Scotland are as high as they've ever been (3.2K reported today) - and it's not just more testing, as positivity rates are over 10% and as high as they've been since the January 2021 peak.

Week on week cases have more than doubled.
Hospital & ICU occupancy are rising but still much lower than January's peak - obviously a very good thing.

This is because of vaccination and because infections are mainly in young people (also partly cos of vax)
But rapid recent increases have not yet fed through to hospitalisations - so hospitalisations will go up over next 2 wks.

Also, 20-30% of people infected will likely end up with long covid - with maybe 15% having it severely affect their daily lives
imperial.ac.uk/news/224853/ov…
Read 11 tweets
25 Jun
THREAD on cases in UK:

Since Delta became dominant in the UK and the opening of indoor spaces in England and the other home nations in May, cases have rapidly increased. 1/14
Cases & positivity rates (showing that it's not just more testing) are going up in all nations except N Ireland (where Delta is not yet dominant).

See same picture in ONS infection survey released today.
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… 2/14
Still driven by regional hotspots in Scotland and England.

In England the NW remains a hotspot, but cases now also rapidly rising in NE, Yorks & Humber & Cornwall.

But most local authorities in Wales, Scot & Eng are going up. 3/14
Read 15 tweets
24 Jun
Short THREAD:
New studies on Long covid in England & Norway show high burden of long term issues - inc young adults.

UK has had 260K confirmed cases since 1st May (80K last 7 days). Even at lower end of 30% growth per week, that's about another 650K cases in next 4 weeks. 1/4
So by end of July we could easily have had 1 million new infections since 1 May - mostly in younger people.

Norway study reported 20% of 16-30 yr olds still had fatigue at 6 months. More than 10% had cognitive or memory issues. 2/4
So even a v. conservative estimate is that by the end of July, tens of thousands more young people will be living with ongoing fatigue or memory issues.

Please stop saying that infections that don't result in hospitalisations are fine.don't matter. They do. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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