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John Bye Profile picture
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8 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Honestly, this sounds a bit fishy.

The dashboard data says just over 50% of 18-24 year olds have had the vaccine so far.

But the latest ONS survey reports that about 90% said they were likely to take the vaccine if offered it, or have already had it.
Dashboard data:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccin…

Take up is 53% for 18-24 year olds, rising to 90%+ in over 60s.

ONS survey:
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

90%+ intention to get vaccinated in 18-25 age groups.

So what's going on? 🤔
Meanwhile the government is denying renewed reports of a shortage of the Pfizer vaccine.

Maybe they aren't being entirely honest? It would certainly explain the slow progress in vaccinating under 40s, as AstraZeneca isn't used in those age groups.

metro.co.uk/2021/07/07/gov…
If so, it looks like the government has decided to use under 40s as a human shield for the economy, letting hundreds of thousands of people catch the virus rather than sort out vaccine supplies.

And then trying to blame young people for not getting vaccinated soon enough! 🤨

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More from @_johnbye

John Bye Profile picture
6 Jul
A timely reminder that even young, healthy people can be affected by severe long covid after having the virus.

This poor woman has suffered over a year of health problems, including blood clots on the lungs and heart inflammation. She's been largely housebound since March 2020!
Lifting all remaining covid rules when cases are rising rapidly in young people who aren't fully vaccinated yet (and, in the case of children, don't even have the option of being vaccinated yet) means many thousands more will suffer months of serious long term health problems.
The idea that it will all just magically be fine because it's summer and cases were very low last summer is clearly nonsense.

Covid is not seasonal. We've had major waves starting in March, September, December and June.

Cases in July are now as high as they were in December! Image
Read 4 tweets
John Bye Profile picture
4 Jul
It's not just school children who are being left to fend for themselves as the government lets covid rip.

Cases in university towns with large student populations soared as the academic year ended, with some of the highest rates in the country.

Source:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/intera…
Oxford: Image
Nottingham: Image
Read 10 tweets
John Bye Profile picture
28 Jun
It looks like Euro 2020 might have caused a massive surge in covid cases in young men in Scotland.

Unless someone can think of another reason for this odd pattern?
Daily case numbers in Scotland are now at their highest level of the entire pandemic.

Mostly in young, unvaccinated people. And with far higher rates amongst men than women.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
If you zoom in, there's a precipitous rise in cases from June 20th - 21st, almost doubling overnight, a week after Scotland's first match of the tournament.

Which is roughly how long you'd expect it to take for people to start showing symptoms and book a test. Image
Read 7 tweets
John Bye Profile picture
13 Jun
I wonder what @QMUL thinks of @profnfenton retweeting a post from an anti-vax conspiracy nut accusing colleague @dgurdasani1 of "misrepresenting the data" on covid deaths amongst vaccinated people?

Particularly ironic given Fenton's own record of mangling data...
Unsurprisingly, Dr Syed's claim that vaccination *increases* your risk of dying if you catch covid by 73% is utter nonsense.

A quick look at the ONS data shows the proportion of covid deaths in the oldest (most vaccinated) age groups has been falling. Exactly as you'd expect.
His whole argument rests on either ignoring the age of people who were vaccinated entirely or (in a later post) assuming that everyone who died was elderly.

Which, as I've just shown above, is far from true.
Read 10 tweets
John Bye Profile picture
12 Jun
The latest nonsense from @hartgroup_org members @ClareCraigPath and @profnfenton is that there's no danger from rising cases because they're not real (they are), hospital admissions aren't rising (they are), and asymptomatic testing isn't showing any rise (it is).
As usual Clare Craig quotes a lot of data that's completely meaningless, to "prove" nothing is really wrong.

Like 111 call data (covid calls go to a separate phoneline) and GP visits (you're not supposed to visit your GP if you have covid symptoms).

She talks about a "small uptick" in lateral flow test positivity, which she now says "successfully identified presymtpomatic patients in winter".

That small uptick is positivity doubling in 2 weeks.

We're now doing half a million LFTs a day on average.

Read 6 tweets
John Bye Profile picture
11 Jun
Nice to see the government is back to leaking major decisions to the press before they're even supposed to have been made, and 3 days ahead of any official announcement. 🙄
The reason we're in this mess (yet again) is because the government did too little too late (yet again).

They delayed putting India on the red list for 2 weeks, probably in the vain hopes a trade trip could still go ahead. Letting the Delta variant in.

thetimes.co.uk/article/3a8b6a…
Then they failed to take action in areas where the new variant was spreading and ignored calls to delay the last stage of reopening, letting Delta become dominant across the whole country and case numbers surge.

Choosing wishful thinking over science.

Read 4 tweets

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