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פרופ' אייל שחר Profile picture
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8 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/
 Thread: Vaccination of recovered.
This line of research has been interpreted as: ”People who have had a PCR confirmed covid-19 infection may only require one dose“.
Is there another possible interpretation?
Recall: vaccinating recovered is newscience.
bmj.com/content/372/bm…
2/
 Most exposed clear up the virus without much trouble.
Likewise, if re-encountered through respiratory route.
Injection is not natural route for re-encounter.
“That offender, which I handled easily, shows up on my immune cells, far away!”
Is the immune system confused?
3/
 Exaggerated response to the 1st dose in recovered. Good or bad?
Recall: over-reaction is part of the pathology.
What would be the response when re-encountering the virus/variant through natural route, after 1st dose?
Over-reaction?
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
4/
 No response to the 2nd dose. Good or bad?
Unsure.
Lost recognition of the offender?
World-wide decisions were based on what? Hand-waving?
This is not “take 0, 1, or 2 Tylenol pills.”

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More from @prof_shahar

פרופ' אייל שחר Profile picture
9 Jul
1/
 Scared by Delta wave? Read this thread.
Is Delta endemic wave that would have gone unnoticed in normal times?

Projections (& some philosophy at the end)

Key points:
Most COVID deaths are 60+.
Trend in elderly is the key - not all ages, not younger.

2/
 Here is what we see:
Continued divergence between infected vulnerable and non-vulnerable (by age).
Was fairly parallel in winter.
This divergence is the most important difference between current (summer) wave and winter wave.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
3/
 Growth rate of moving average has been declining since June 28 (in both age groups)
Last data point: July 4.
Peak case wave at ~1.
Mid-July?

See detailed graphs here, by narrow age groups
Image
Read 11 tweets
פרופ' אייל שחר Profile picture
28 Jun
1/
 Israel: Missing COVID deaths in the Lancet paper on effectiveness.

NEW information, greater mystery. @federicolois

2/
 On June 25, the last author of the Lancet paper interviewed on Israeli TV.

She reported that there were 570 COVID deaths of fully vaccinated people in Israel since the vaccination campaign began.

(fully vaccinated = “green pass”= 1 week post 2nd dose)
3/
 Hebrew speakers can read a post by journalist @YaffaRaz including a video clip.

facebook.com/677092628/post…
Read 5 tweets
פרופ' אייל שחר Profile picture
26 Jun
1/
 UK: Delta variant:
What can we learn, and what can we not learn, from PHE reports?

About the IFR? flu at most

About vacciine effect on death? nothing Image
2/
 See here IFR=0.1%, 0.3%
Why estimates differ?
Several explanations, but one we’ll need later: risk is not # death/# people. It is # deaths/# person-time.
Need to add up the number of days each person was observed to compute “rate” (epidemiology).
Risk is over people AND time. Image
3/
 We don’t have time (days) for all 92,056 cases. We only have it for 11,250 (28 days per person).
Regardless, these are not all cases. By now it’s clear that 80-90% of infections are asymptomatic.
Therefore IFR must be << 0.3%
Flu. Or less.
Delta much less virulent than Alpha
Read 13 tweets
פרופ' אייל שחר Profile picture
10 Jun
1/
 Question: How does a dominant seasonal flu strain start simultaneously in geographically spread locations?

Spread from one location to another is unrealistic:
1) Too fast
2) No moving wave pattern.
2/
 Answer: Virus arrived sooner.

Stays dormant in the body, awaiting seasonal stimulus (viral dormancy, old theory)
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
3/
 Support here.
Read 5 tweets
פרופ' אייל שחר Profile picture
7 May
1/
Peer review (unsolicited)
Another analysis of Israel data on vaccine effectiveness. Fully vaccinated vs. unvaccinated
Observation period: Jan 24-Apr 3
Bottom line: again, likely over-estimation of effectiveness.
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
2/
 Over the study period:
1)People shifted from unvaccinated to fully vaccinated.
2)Rate of infection was declining (peak Jan 20)
3/
 Distribution of unvaccinated on the calendar is shifted to the left (time of HIGHER infection rate)
Distribution of vaccinated is shifted to the right (time of LOWER infection rate)
So, part of the difference between vaccinated & unvaccinated is due natural wave decline.
Read 8 tweets
פרופ' אייל שחר Profile picture
1 Apr
Thread: US excess death
1/
 Rough estimation of US excess deaths, Oct 2019-Sep 2020 (“flu year”)

Impact of recent winter belongs to “flu year” Oct 2020-Sep 2021

(“Flu year” avoids arbitrarily split of winter mortality between two calendar years.)

At the end: Sweden
2/
 Inference derived from just 7 “flu years” (shown in rectangle) + heuristics.

Counts of all-cause deaths obtained from a table in this tweet.

Image
3/
 Notice a pattern: a year of “high” mortality is followed by a year of lower/similar.

Pattern disrupted in 2017/2018, severe flu season. Should have been lower/similar to 2016/17.
Estimated flu deaths: 61,000 ImageImage
Read 10 tweets

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