Today in Venice @Tharman_S@NOIweala & I presented a report to G20 fin. ministers & central bank govs on financing for #pandemicpreparedness. At press conference I said: For none of us is this our first rodeo w a global issue that requires a global collective response. #G20HLIP
For all of us, this is the first time where we have seen one where the expenditure of tens of billions of dollars is likely to prevent the need for spending tens of trillions of dollars down the road.
It is nearly certain we will see another COVID, the question is whether we will as international community be ready.
This is a test of our capacity as a crisis plays out to prepare for the next one. The world had that crisis as WW1 ended & it failed. The question w this pandemic is will the world do better? An important part of question will be answered when leaders meet in Rome in Oct.
We are encouraged by the response our #G20HLIP report received. Ultimately, if this isn’t the moment to mobilize people to prepare for pandemics, then when would that moment ever be, given the traumas associated with what we have been through
Pandemic threats, along with climate change, are going to in our judgement define the international challenge for finance ministers, for foreign ministers and for heads of state going forward.
Security & prosperity initially depended on balancing power and trade. Today the greatest threats we face are climate change & pandemics. We regard them as differing in their horizons & differing in ways in which they play out over time but as being comparable and grave threats.
Security today depends on the capacity for global cooperation to meet global challenges in the way that it once depended on the ability to balance power.
This is not all negative and about challenges. Because of what would not have been possible even two decades ago – given progress in science, information technology.
The opportunity to invest tens of billions of dollars, and avoid tens of trillions of dollars in costs, is the public sector equivalent of buying Amazon stock in the 1990s -- it offers immense returns and will be profoundly regretted by anyone who miss the opportunity.
1. I am thrilled to see bipartisan support for tax compliance efforts. Investing in IRS will raise substantial revenue and create a more efficient and equitable tax system.
2. The @WSJEditorial board disagrees, and shockingly argues that *increasing deficits* is preferable to cracking down on tax cheats.
.@porszag cites superforecasters who think there is only a 42 percent chance of inflation exceeding 3 percent for the year. The Administration budget projections (perhaps reflecting lags in the process) call for inflation closer to 2 percent this year.
Given that inflation has totaled 2.7 percent in first 5 months of this year I think odds are better than 42 percent of higher 3 percent inflation in first half of the year!
Watch here my @CFR_org talk with @gilliantett yesterday where I talked about inflation, saying:
The @federalreserve has traditionally acted and spoken in ways designed to preempt inflation fears.
Today, the @federalreserve speaks in a way designed to preempt the idea the Fed MIGHT have inflation fears. That’s a very different thing and likely to contribute to development of an inflation psychology.
The famous doctrine of @federalreserve has always been William McChesney Martin’s remark: Fed’s job is to “take away the punch bowl” before the party gets out of hand. What we are now saying is we are not going to do anything until we see a bunch of drunk people staggering around
It represents an overdue recognition that the relative return on public and private investment has changed dramatically over the last generation. That makes borrowing and investing at large scale the right strategy for the Federal government.
I continue to be very worried that the current fiscal - monetary mix will overheat the economy. But these measures will not exacerbate the problem.
.@POTUS Biden's $1.9 trillion covid-19 relief plan, added to the stimulus measure Congress passed in December with the incoming administration’s strong support, would represent the boldest act of macroeconomic stabilization policy in U.S. history.
Its ambition, its rejection of austerity orthodoxy and its commitment to reducing economic inequality are all admirable.
1. New NBER WP out today, “Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform” with @NatashaRSarin, @omzidar, and Eric Zwick.
We point out that there is likely much more revenue potential from raising capital gains rates than official scorekeepers believe. nber.org/papers/w28362?…
2. Elasticity of capital gains tax base to rate changes is assumed to be .7.
This is unchanged since the 80s, and means that raising cap gains rates to ordinary income levels puts you on the wrong side of the Laffer curve.
We believe this conclusion is mistaken.
3. Why? Estimates appear to miss that realizations deferred when rates rise unlikely to be deferred indefinitely
And when they are realized, taxed at new higher rates
Suppose doubling cap gains rates cuts realizations in half, e.g. occur once every 2 years rather than annually