1/ Paycheck Protection Grants - stuff you wish you don't know.

Right now, treasury is giving out $3-4Bn a day(!) in SBA PPP grants, free money for "small" business.

"" used, because Mnuchin allowed some mega churches to be paid via SBA. payment amount has grown since....
2/ so not sure who qualifies as small business any more.

so much free money is given out right now that Fiscal year to date SBA spending is the 2nd *largest expenditure* category (only behind social security).
3/ since "small" business is getting 33% more free payroll money from SBA than unemployment benefits being sent out, it is should be easy for small business to pay people a little more than unemployment?
4/ Wage inflation... if we don't see wage inflation after the government gave out $486Bn dollar to "small" business... maybe we would see some massive profit on K1 forms from "small" business owners next year?

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More from @Barton_options

30 Jun
1/ RRP analysis that you won't get elsewhere

EOQ is the window dressing time for EU/Japanese banks, because how their Basal III compliance is put in place.

End-of-quarter balance-sheet composition very important for GSIBs in those areas.
2/ They don't want to hold bank reserve at EOQ, so the fastest way is to quit doing Repos (taking in bank reserve and lend out UST/MBS etc)

EU/Japanese Banks do a lot of repos with money-market funds. And they will stop on 3/31, 6/30, 9/30 and 12/31 every quarter, for ONE day.
3/ we have 90 counter-parties today actively using Fed RRP. 92 MMFs are participating + Fannie and Freddie.

So 90 out 94 users are using it today, which reflects that some major Repo players (EU/Japanese banks) are leaving the playground for 1 day.
Read 6 tweets
27 Jun
1/ Talked with a CVS minute-clinic nurse practitioner at Austin today.

She mentioned that lately nearly than 50% of the COVID positive tests are coming from fully-vaccinated folks (asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, e.g. a sore throat), who are accompanying a sick relative.
2/ The underlying dynamic is potentially that one unvaccinated person gets COVID, and then turns every vaccinated persons in the household asymptomatic spreaders for a couple of days.
3/ Before the arrival of the doubly-contagious delta variant, this issue was not too concerning.

But now, this summer is going to be "interesting".
Read 5 tweets
26 Jun
Was today THE LOTTO day of the year?
Some of the stuff I noticed.

Best gap open lotto: NKE, 40 bagger before 845am.
Best intraday lotto: EXPR, 100 bagger at noon time
Best HLOD lotto: SPCE, 190 bagger (if bot near the close yesterday) at expiration.
I don't know what to say about this..
Read 4 tweets
13 Jun
1/ CBDC vs crypto = commercial banking system vs. shadowing banking system.

There are two somewhat decoupled bank systems, where money/credit creation are somewhat independent.
2/ We have the commercial banks that issue loans to household, business & government

money creation is mostly done via term loans, and its supply affects consumer price inflation in goods & services.

CBDC is in this realm.
3/ shadow banking system, loosely speaking, has to do with financial assets (tradable securities).

Money creation is done via a hybrid of term loans (UST, corporate bond) and callable loans (margin debt, overnight repos, derivatives)
Read 8 tweets
10 Jun
Thursdays will be the day of the week to see the biggest rise in RRP balance.

We are going to see $25+Bn increase today. Wait for it.
This trend should continue into the week of June 29th, when Tuesdays would have a chance to exceed Thursdays (according to Treasury's current pattern).
$32Bn RRP balance increase today, like clockwork

But.. RRP is still lagging behind the reserve injection by a little bit. Image
Read 4 tweets
9 Jun
Bot 2-year worth of fish oil today at Costco to hedge against the Japanese release of Tritium-rich Fukushima waste water into the Pacific.

Data and reasoning in a blog post later..
fish oil in the shop today is probably made 2-3 months ago from salmons caught 4-5 months ago... so it's still relatively safe.

after 2-3 years, the released tritium should be spread over the world, either being diluted enough to be safe, and/or there is nowhere to hide anyway
fish oil gets oxidized (bad for your health) over time at room temperature.

freezing it should slow down the oxidation process by a lot. so they are going into the freezer now.
Read 8 tweets

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