1/ Talked with a CVS minute-clinic nurse practitioner at Austin today.

She mentioned that lately nearly than 50% of the COVID positive tests are coming from fully-vaccinated folks (asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, e.g. a sore throat), who are accompanying a sick relative.
2/ The underlying dynamic is potentially that one unvaccinated person gets COVID, and then turns every vaccinated persons in the household asymptomatic spreaders for a couple of days.
3/ Before the arrival of the doubly-contagious delta variant, this issue was not too concerning.

But now, this summer is going to be "interesting".
4/ The fall could be a lot worse for unvaccinated people, when the vaccinated population has their IgG/IgA titer waned by 8-10x, thereby becoming asymptomatic spreaders with higher viral load.
The 50% statistics is from that particular CVS store (they provide COVID testing service). so it's just one data point. but i think the broader picture probably is not too different.

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More from @Barton_options

26 Jun
Was today THE LOTTO day of the year?
Some of the stuff I noticed.

Best gap open lotto: NKE, 40 bagger before 845am.
Best intraday lotto: EXPR, 100 bagger at noon time
Best HLOD lotto: SPCE, 190 bagger (if bot near the close yesterday) at expiration.
I don't know what to say about this..
Read 4 tweets
13 Jun
1/ CBDC vs crypto = commercial banking system vs. shadowing banking system.

There are two somewhat decoupled bank systems, where money/credit creation are somewhat independent.
2/ We have the commercial banks that issue loans to household, business & government

money creation is mostly done via term loans, and its supply affects consumer price inflation in goods & services.

CBDC is in this realm.
3/ shadow banking system, loosely speaking, has to do with financial assets (tradable securities).

Money creation is done via a hybrid of term loans (UST, corporate bond) and callable loans (margin debt, overnight repos, derivatives)
Read 8 tweets
10 Jun
Thursdays will be the day of the week to see the biggest rise in RRP balance.

We are going to see $25+Bn increase today. Wait for it.
This trend should continue into the week of June 29th, when Tuesdays would have a chance to exceed Thursdays (according to Treasury's current pattern).
$32Bn RRP balance increase today, like clockwork

But.. RRP is still lagging behind the reserve injection by a little bit. Image
Read 4 tweets
9 Jun
Bot 2-year worth of fish oil today at Costco to hedge against the Japanese release of Tritium-rich Fukushima waste water into the Pacific.

Data and reasoning in a blog post later..
fish oil in the shop today is probably made 2-3 months ago from salmons caught 4-5 months ago... so it's still relatively safe.

after 2-3 years, the released tritium should be spread over the world, either being diluted enough to be safe, and/or there is nowhere to hide anyway
fish oil gets oxidized (bad for your health) over time at room temperature.

freezing it should slow down the oxidation process by a lot. so they are going into the freezer now.
Read 8 tweets
2 Jun
$AMC high so far was near $73 because that was where the highest strike was this morning.
if all the calls were ITM, there is nothing left to squeeze.

All that is left is to take profits.
a hour ago, a MM started to offer strikes up to $120.

If sufficient OTM calls are bot there in the afternoon (need to be in large quantities to exceed existing ITM call OI), there is room to go up.

Otherwise, profit-taking time (meaning AMC stalling then grinding down)
Read 4 tweets
24 May
2020 SOMA annual report is worth the wait!!!

so good
These people's productivity increased by 200% once they started to work from home . 🤣
There is a covert Operation Twist hidden here. Will explain how it works and the magnitude of it in a fed.tips article hopefully this weekend.
Read 6 tweets

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