Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update July 10, 2021: 2021 will be the year of the Unvaccinated Pandemic.

Vaccinated or not, there are implications for all of us. 1/

The most tragic toll will be in the countries that have not done mass vaccinations yet.

India, Australia, Bangladesh, E Asia, Africa— places that dodged COVID in 2020 and either couldn’t afford or didn’t make an effort to procure vaccines will pay the highest toll. 2/

In the US, we were racing against Alpha & largely beat it. But imagine if we had not. A new study from Yale points to 100s of thousands of lives saved & millions of hospitalizations by having vaccines beat alpha. 3/

google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.…

Take a moment to imagine that we were on the old schedule of vaccinations and still had only vaccinated a small portion of the country. Delta would wreaking havoc. Imagine if you were still prowling websites to get an appointment.

That’s what it’s like across the globe now.4/

Poor and intermediate income countries thanks to the US and G-7 & deals w Pfizer & others have billions of doses coming to them, but they won’t come quickly enough for Delta in most places. 5/

Imagine racing against someone who runs an 8 minute mile. That was 2020 COVID. Alpha runs a 7 minute mile. Delta runs a 4 minute mile.

In countries around the globe the time it takes to produce & distribute 8 billion more vaccines, or even several billion more, is too long. 6/

For many countries in the world 2021 the unvaccinated pandemic will be a bigger tragedy than 2020 was.

Tough measures, difficult to sustain, will be on order. We can assist with aid & equipment but we are going to feel quite helpless. 7/

Here in the US of course there are plenty of unvaccinated people, a number of partially vaccinated people, and people for whom vaccines could begin to wane. There are also breakthrough infections for vaccinated people.

Let me scope this briefly. 8/

(If you’re thinking this thread is already not brief, that’s a good point. Anyway…) 9/

There are people not vaccinated for a variety of reasons: by choice, because they’re considering it, or because it’s not available to them. 10/

People who have a condition that suppresses their immune response are everyone’s obligation to watch out for. Until we have an effective antiviral (which could be this Fall), precautions need to be taken around then. 11/

If you have a person with a condition like this that you are in contact with, you need to be vaccinated. They and you should consider wearing a mask and it should be N-95 or equivalent. 12/

Kids under 12 are another, but less worrisome challenge. They should be wearing a mask not withstanding their health outcomes are likely to be less severe & their risks are lower. The CDC & virtually every state believe in person education is safe with proper precautions. 13/

If you’re unvaccinated by choice & have never had COVID, you will race the 4 minute miler until you decide to get vaccinated.

If you have a question about it’s safety or efficacy, ask your doctor or a pharmacist (not someone on Twitter or Facebook). 14/

If you’ve only had one shot of mRNA or have had COVID but not been vaccinated, a good bet is that you are partially protected against Delta, but maybe only 1/3. 15/

If you’ve had any of the 3 major vaccines, your chances of getting sick with COVID or passing it along are low.

If under 50, the chance of dying from COVID are near zero and if over 50 are not zero but are tiny. 16/

(OK, it’s not at all brief but what do you expect I’m trying to be thorough & cover all situations. 🙄)

((Plus we both know you stopped reading at tweet 3))

Get your second shot if you only have had one. Delta is not impressed by one shot. 17/

If you have been vaccinated & live in an areas with high vax rates & low prevalence, you are very safe. You may choose to wear a mask for a variety of reasons but it’s safe not to. 18/

If I were in Las Vegas on the other hand, I would be wearing a mask.

I wouldn’t be in Las Vegas. 115 degrees & gambling with COVID isn’t my dream summer vacation. And if you’re going to Vegas, no need to stop by on your way home. Wave from the plane. 19/

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1413673042178281478?s=21

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1413673042178281478

In the US, cases are going to jump up from 10,000/day where it’s been back up to 40-50k. It could reach levels we saw last summer.

But with some exceptions I noted, it will be an unvaccinated pandemic in the US as well. 20/

Gratefully, many of the highest risk people have been vaccinated. The death toll won’t approach last year & overwhelmed hospitals, which contributed to mortality, will be less of a concern.

Still…21/

Delta is likely to afflict unvaccinated black & brown communities & those with higher risk factors the most lethally. 22/

Our vaccines are about as good a solutions as we could hope for. If you are lucky enough to have access to them, run don’t walk. 23/

If you know someone who hasn’t but who trusts your opinion, consider going door to door. I hear Congresswoman Green supports this. /end

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1413320215371206656