Thread by @JakeSherman

The Senate is back — yay! — and our headline of @PunchbowlNews AM is: "☀️How will this all end?”

This, meaning @JoeBiden’s agenda. We detailed a few likely scenarios.

So, here we go:

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden → The straightforward: @SenSchumer says he wants to set up floor votes on the bipartisan infrastructure bill and a budget resolution w reconciliation instructions before Sen recesses. Schumer has already warned that he’ll keep them in session past scheduled Aug. 6 recess date

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenSchumer A lot would need to happen to make Schumer’s timeline reality. bipartisan bill needs to be put into leg text quickly & it needs to be scored by CBO. The bipartisan group of senators needs to find 10 Rs while holding all 50 Senate Democrats.

House&Senate would also have to agree on a budget framework as well. On top of all that, there would have to be a nearly flawless floor performance for both those measures to get through the Senate during the next few wks. budget resolution will take a week to pass on the floor

The House -- w no votes currently scheduled from July 30 to Sept. 20 -- would then probably revise its schedule. @SpeakerPelosi and her leadership team could take up those pieces of legislation in Aug and try to pass them quickly, either individually or as a one-two punch.

@SpeakerPelosi Or House Ds could extend the session deeper into the month. Or they can come back in September and take the bills up.

@SpeakerPelosi That would leave Sept for the debt limit and govt funding. The debt limit can’t ride in a reconciliation package unless Congress wants to lift the cap by a certain dollar figure. So we’re not sure how they handle that in this construct.

@SpeakerPelosi The House will try to pass some FY 2022 appropriations bills before it leaves in August, at least if @LeaderHoyer and @rosadelauro have anything to say about it.

@SpeakerPelosi And then Congress would have to consider the meat in the American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan.

@SpeakerPelosi → Another scenario: Congress struggles with the budget resolution and/or bipartisan infrastructure package and wastes the rest of July flailing around.

@SpeakerPelosi After fruitlessly staying in town for part of Aug, Congress recesses for a couple weeks. That brings us to Sept., during which lawmakers have to find a way to fund the government and lift the debt limit.

@SpeakerPelosi Congress gets some sort of hard infrastructure bill through, passes a short-term funding bill to avoid a shutdown and also suspends the debt ceiling until December -- there’s no time or political will for anything else.

@SpeakerPelosi This would create a cliff at the end of the year to help create urgency to pass a so-called “human infrastructure” bill under reconciliation before 2022 starts.

@SpeakerPelosi → Or how about this scenario: The bipartisan Senate infrastructure deal falls apart. The pay fors don’t score well enough, there’s not enough GOP support to get to the 60-vote threshold.

@SpeakerPelosi This causes huge trouble w the budget resolution, as D moderates in the House and Senate balk at tax increases or deficit spending. These Ds are more worried about staying alive politically in 22 than they are about Biden’s legislative dreams. The issue drags on for a while.

@SpeakerPelosi Democrats eventually pass a scaled-back infrastructure package with a mix of “hard” and “human” programs on a party line vote. The cost is somewhere in the $1 trillion to $2 trillion range.

@SpeakerPelosi Democrats end up passing a continuing resolution to keep the government running into early ‘22 too, but they have a hard time putting together an omnibus spending package until after the new year.

@SpeakerPelosi At some point, a suspension of the debt ceiling until 2023 is enacted. Some Republicans vote for the spending bills but nothing else.

@SpeakerPelosi → Eek, what about this: Ds struggle to pass a stopgap funding bill and have a tough time w raising the debt limit because they can't pass an infrastructure bill or budget.

@SpeakerPelosi Remember: a stopgap bill would almost certainly be based on Trump-era spending levels & that will not be palatable to a lot of Ds. And the debt limit? Democrats will need to carry that one on their own. So if Dems struggle on the big stuff, the small stuff becomes harder.