Have been really enjoying the new @PolicyImpacts website from @nhendren82 & @bsprungkeyser, a great source for evidence-based benefit-cost analysis of govt spending (including tax expenditures) on education, health, nutrition, disability and much more.

policyimpacts.org
The site builds on their research on the Marginal Value of Public Funds (MVPF) which compares *long-run* benefits to long-run net costs, importantly factoring in any savings from higher taxes on higher wages, savings on healthcare, etc. academic.oup.com/qje/article/13…
Policymakers working to prioritize can take advantage of their library of one hundred or so interventions all organized in a reasonably comparable way.

(Caveat: as always, make sure results are robust/applicable, don't run out & make policy on a single paper if you can help it.)
Some of the most exciting policies are the ones that have this benefit-cost ratio of ∞. In my view we should not be paying for policies that rigorous research have found pay for themselves.
For researchers, using this concept is a great way to present results in the most policy-relevant sense and also in a manner that will be comparable. The library should grow over time, both covering more topics and multiple estimates of the same topics.
Finally: a great opportunity to attend their inaugural conference on 8/12 or apply for an early career grant. policyimpacts.org/events/35/poli… policyimpacts.org/events/36/appl…

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More from @jasonfurman

13 Jul
Earlier this year most people were forecasting ~2% inflation for the entire year. So far we already have 3.6% inflation (or 7.3%) at an annual rate.

Reupping a thread last month, this massive miss could mean you revise your inflation forecast up or down.

At this point you should almost certainly revise *down* your forecast for inflation for the remainder of 2021. New and used cars have contributed 1pp to the 3.6% inflation so far this year. Could easily subtract something like that over the next six months.
Inflation in the first half of 2021 has been much less bad than it looks when you take out the crazy volatile stuff. Inflation in the second half of 2021 may be substantially higher than the headline numbers.
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
My analysis of the jobs numbers, with Willie Powell. Short version: the pace of job growth picked up as signs continue to point to a tight labor market. A 🧵follows.
piie.com/blogs/realtime…
850,000 was a great jobs number but we're still 9m jobs short of trend. We should be able to narrow that gap relatively rapidly for several more months in a row (assuming no dramatic worsening of the virus situation).
The unemployment rate remains elevated. And the "realistic" unemployment rate, which includes the 2.1m people who have left the labor force above and beyond what one would have expected.
Read 7 tweets
2 Jul
The pace of *nominal* wage growth remains very rapid, although it slowed a little in June.

Over the last 3 months the annualized nominal wage growth was:

Private: 5.9% (or 7.1% adjusted for composition)

Production and nonsupervisory: 6.6% (or 7.8% adjusted for composition)
The compositional issue is that when lower-wage workers are added in larger numbers, like leisure and hospitality, that drives down the average because you are adding some lower-wage workers.

This tries to adjust for that by holding industry shares constant.
The numbers for June are:

Private: +0.3% (or 0.4% adjusted for composition)

Production and nonsupervisory: +0.4% (or 0.5% adjusted for composition)
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
I wrote this quickly and missed a big point: the "definitional differences" I acknowledged were a possibility were a *much* bigger deal than I had realized--@jdlahart makes this very important point.
So there may be a more coherent story here than I had realized but I'm not sure what it is:

--People shifting from self employed to jobs (BLS says self employment was down but only 165K)

--People getting multiple jobs (but BLS says this was down)

--Farm employment?

--Others?
Hopefully someone has figured this out already so I'll stop speculating, if I see reliable points on it I'll retweet them.

Enjoy the rest of your jobs day!
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
Two very different numbers in today’s report:

+850,000 jobs according to the payroll survey of employers

-12,000 employment according to surveyed workers

Most everyone is disregarding the second number. And most everyone is right. A short🧵
We studied this issue carefully at CEA and in our very last issue brief we concluded that the household survey was so noisy that it essentially provided no additional information relative on top of the payroll survey. obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/…
While there are definitional differences between payroll jobs and employment the large gap between them is likely because one (or both) was badly mismeasured due to noise, which is especially large right now. whitehouse.gov/cea/blog/2021/…
Read 4 tweets
1 Jul
I joined an inflation panel organized by @BudgetHawks yesterday. I'll do a short🧵summarizing my six points but watch it all for a broader set of perspectives--with various disagreements but a consensus that we should not be overconfident on this topic. dropbox.com/s/5fl91e93gzr5…
1. Before getting to inflation, the even more important issue is what is happening in the real economy. Remarkably the US is expected to be above pre-pandemic forecasts for real GDP by the end of the year--the only G7 country where this is expected. (Note, is a forecast.)
2. The United States has also had much more inflation than other countries. This says inflation is not just about reopening, supply chain issues, global commodity prices, base effects, etc., because they also have those in Germany and France.
Read 14 tweets

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