Thread by @DoomsdayDebunks

Latest government modelling of effect of step 4 of the road map. Very dependent on behaviour after July 19. If quickly go back to behaviour before pandemic, similar to January peak or higher.

https://twitter.com/BarnardResearch/status/1414636107548045317

This shows hypothetical effect of no interventions, no test trace, isolate, no personal behaviour changes to stop pandemic.
R amongst non vaccinated people.
blue = 7, purple = 5.5, green = 4.5, yellow = gradual change of R to 4.5.

Left =optimistic about vaccine effectiveness

From: gov.uk/government/pub…

This shows how the result varies depending on mobility, with behaviour and TTI reducing R by 15%

Effect of 20% (purple), 15% (blue), 10% (green), or 5% (red) reduction in transmission post July 19th through test, trace, isolate and baseline behaviour

That's all from gov.uk/government/pub…

Then this shows results of different degrees of waning of protective measures from gov.uk/government/pub…

The reports are highly technical and need to be read carefully as some of the graphs are for scenarios that are not meant to correspond to real situations, but to show how the modelling works (like that R one I shared first).

Generally - the message is that what happens depends a lot on.
1. personal behaviour changes, hard to predict
2. effectiveness of Test Trace, Isolate and personal protective measures
3. Vaccine effectiveness at stopping spread of delta (or any new variant).

Not much we can do to change the government's decision. But on a personal level we can still make a big difference with our behaviour. By being more careful we can help keep the peak in hospitalization lower. This can make a dramatic difference to the outcome & is main unknown.

They don't model long COVID.

They don't model what happens with a new variant that has more vaccine escape.

These graphs are all for England.

See also my

https://twitter.com/DoomsdayDebunks/status/1414340969667891202

I'm hopeful many organizations will require masks as a courtesy e.g. shops, theatres, schools, is already starting to happen. The graphs show a big effect of a few percent reduction of transmission. We can do a lot working together, influence others to protect themselves.

I am wearing a mask to keep cases down

Let's be COVID superheroes and #DOITALL

debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Lets-be-COVID-…

Don't give long COVID figures but do give total infections.

5.7 to 9.9 million infections or at 15%, 0.855 to 1.485 million new cases of long COVID

With waning immunity 1.245 to 1.95 million new cases of long COVID.

Behaviour can save > 0.5 million cases of long COVID.

That's from this one gov.uk/government/pub…

Being more cautious and delaying July 19 and vaccinating those people instead would surely save nearly all those infections and cases of long COVID, but these new reports assume July 19 and don't compare it with delaying it.

Summary from the first report gov.uk/government/pub…