Headlines about solar storm headed for Earth are fake news. There was an X-class flare that caused some over the horizon radio blackouts on July 3 - few people use long wave radio now.

Tony Rice from NASA explains here:

wral.com/no-there-isn-t…
Solar flares and solar storms do nothing to the internet (connected via optical fibre) or cell phones (connected via direct microwave transmission). They can cause short term glitches in GPS.
Once per century solar storms may cause powercuts, in particular places depending on local geology and lengths of power lines, indistinguishable from ones we get anyway - surges could affect old model step up down transformers or near end of their life.
Even if we get a major storm like that, once per century, it's more a problem for electricity companies, won't affect consumers much. Early estimates of massive effects were based on information now out of date. debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/What-would-the…

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More from @DoomsdayDebunks

17 Jul
Westminster gov. failed to bring the virus under control & is now preparing to remove the last few remaining measures that inhibit it from spreading even more widely amongst our only partially vaccinated population.

International COVID experts respond:
Image
Almost 50,000 cases per day
Only half fully vaccinated.
Expect many millions infected over summer.
UK gov. has chosen to do this even though we have effective vaccines.

We ask experts to respond
Image
New Zealand: Always looked to UK for leadership

Remarkable depth of scientific knowledge.

Remarkable clinical trials we are drawing on.

Incredible development of vaccines & rollout.

Astounded you are doing this despite amazing expertise you have in UK.
Read 23 tweets
15 Jul
The BBC tell us
1. exit wave is inevitable - FALSE
2. COVID is seasonal - during huge summer surge!
4. opening up now relieves pressure on the NHS in winter -higher estimates for summer hospitalization surge similar to H1N1 peak!

A mass of logical absurdities.
We are 50% unvaccinated. We need to finish that vaccination and also vaccinate down to adolescents - that's an extra 2 days for each year group at 400,000 doses a day. That gives far better immunity than natural infection and we are better prepared for the winter.
That's 2 days per age group for first dose then the same again 3 weeks later. Then we have masks, test trace isolate, physical distancing, ventilation, #DOITALL in ways that have no impact on economy as we open up carefully. Meanwhile by autumn we have vaccines that target delta.
Read 11 tweets
15 Jul
This is to help people who think the 4.9 C path or "business as usual" is still possible. Quotes a tweet from @Peters_Glen from 2019. Situation is the same today in 2021 and even more so.

debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Why-the-busine…
His twitter thread discussing the 4.9 C path (RCP 8.5) is here


I refer to it as the 4.9 C path just because not many people know what RCP 8.5 means but that's technically more accurate, really a scenario of CO2 emissions with a narrative to motivate it.
The Paris Agreement is working. Carbon Action Tracker had this projection for 2100 in December 2018 just after the report on the difference between 1.5 and 2 C
Read 14 tweets
13 Jul
Latest government modelling of effect of step 4 of the road map. Very dependent on behaviour after July 19. If quickly go back to behaviour before pandemic, similar to January peak or higher.
This shows hypothetical effect of no interventions, no test trace, isolate, no personal behaviour changes to stop pandemic.
R amongst non vaccinated people.
blue = 7, purple = 5.5, green = 4.5, yellow = gradual change of R to 4.5.

Left =optimistic about vaccine effectiveness Image
Read 19 tweets
11 Jul
BBC asked what WHO think about the UK saying an exit wave in August is better than in September.

Dr Mike Ryan says he doesn't believe that's their logic.

@DrMikeRyan called such a plan "moral emptiness and emotional stupidity"

100% agree, will explain how I understand it.
Extract here:
Dr Mike Ryan explains later he honestly thinks deliberately permitting infection is not the aim

He is sure excellent scientists that advise the UK health system, will open up very cautiously and be ready to adjust.
However some people on Twitter and elsewhere, like that reporter, talk about an "exit wave" now rather than in September whatever the UK government policy is.

This is to explain what I think he meant by calling that moral emptiness and epidemiological stupidity.
Read 24 tweets
10 Jul
About the heat wave in Canada and the rapid climate model attribution. We are desert adapted animals. It's in our DNA, and what we need to change for heat waves is behaviour. Even elderly and babies have the biology to live in hot deserts so long as it's dry.
What we need for heat waves is to adapt our behaviour.

This is not instinctive. Desert people will learn from their community.
- drink lots of water!
- ventilation
- blinds or window reflectors
- stay in shade
- go somewhere cool
- air conditioning
redcross.org/get-help/how-t…
Although Lytton had record heat, it was also very dry, 15% humidity. Also though it was record heat in Lytton, temperatures above 40 C are not unusual. In dry summer conditions with Canadian long summer days and short nights, heat builds up in a heat trap far from the sea.
Read 27 tweets

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