Thread by @tomaspueyo

Everything you need to know about the Delta Variant

Quick summary thread 🧵
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/delta-varian…

Cases are exploding around the world

Mostly due to Delta

It spreads so fast because R0 is much higher than before. From ~2.7 to ~4-9. That difference is HUGE, and can make COVID more transmissible than smallpox.

It's also much deadlier

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1414334152325861377?s=20

Yet it's killing less because vaccines are protecting the elderly. The young are those getting infected.

But the young don't die as much.

Vaccines are really good, even against Delta. mRNA ones reduce hospitalization and death by ~93%.

So get vaccinated.

But they only protect ~65% against symptomatic infection.

With an R of, say, 8, the herd immunity threshold would go up to ~85%. With a vaccine that only protects 65% of ppl against infection, *even vaccinating all the population would not stop the virus*

That doesn't account for Long COVID, which affects ~1/8 symptomatics. So what can we do?

1. If you're an individual, if you're vaccinated, you're good. Be cautious though. Your likelihood of death is~0.14%, assuming you will get exposed.

If you're not vaccinated, get vaccinated asap. 2 shots ideally. Mix-and-match if you can.

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1414685738877300740?s=20

2. If you're a community leader:
Vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate. The lives of your community depend on it. Any vaccine that works is better than none. If people are opting out, try to lure them in.

Also, keep Delta at bay as much as you can while vaccinations proceed. An elimination strategy will be best. Good border fences and test-trace-isolate programs are your best tools. Super-spreader events should still be avoided. Masks indoors and in crowds. Great ventilation.

3. If you're in charge of vaccine policy, vaccinate everybody you can. Approve mix-and-match.

More details in the article
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/delta-varian…