A little thing on ATGMs based on a past conflict. So, in 2006 the Israeli Defence Forces deployed Merkavas to Lebanon as part of Operation 'Change of Direction'. There, they were subjected to a very high number of ATGM attacks by Hizbullah.
The key points (if you don't fancy reading further) are that modern MBTs can have high levels of survivability against HEAT missiles even when penetrated. And, that small packets of armour are not a good thing to use against dispersed infantry - but you already knew that right?
In total, 50 Merkavas were successfully hit by ATGM/RPGs, which included Kornet-E, Metis-M, RPG-29, Konkurs and the good old Fagot. The Merkavas included the Mk 2, 3, and 4 in service from 83, 90 and 2001 respectively.
21 were penetrated, 11 of the incidents resulted in no fatalities while 10 incidents resulted in 23 crew casualties. Compare this with 73, when 60% of hits with Sagger missiles resulted in penetration, and often the death of all four crew members.
Sure - I know - they were older tanks, but they were older missiles too. The issue, according to IDF sources, was things like oil-based gun control systems, and unprotected ammo. This led to vehicle fires and things that generally aren't good for a tank crew.
In 1982, the penetration of the OG Merkava 1 stood at around 45%, casualties were lower than 72, but higher than 06 (don't have figures - sorry), indicating the improvements that came with Merkava's additional armour and survivability enhancements.
What changed? Well, Merkavas from Mk 3 use an electric gun control system and ammunition storage that can prevent cook-off for 45 mins, even when internal tank temperatures reach 1,000 C. There's also a whole bunch of other clever stuff going on with the fuel lines etc.
It was this 2006 operation that spurred the IDF on to procuring Trophy, having previously deferred its procurement. Some claimed that Trophy would have saved a lot of IDF lives in 2006.
Next up is tactics. While Hizbullah anti-tank teams appeared well-trained and familiar with the MBTs weak spots, some of their successful hits were attributed to the tactics employed by the IDF in the first weeks of the fighting.
"Most of the armoured units were deployed on rescue and covering missions, rather than leading a wide offensive," said retired brigadier general Avigdor Klein, "This is contradictory to the IDF armour doctrine and unnecessarily exposed the tanks to the missiles."
These allegations had been levelled at the IDF before, as it had deployed the beasts in stationary positions allowing plenty of time for the missiles - which can take 17 seconds to reach a target at full range - to be deployed.
The IDF is known to have used tactics to mitigate against this. Known as the ‘Sagger Watch’ procedure tanks would use the auto‐track facility of the Merkava's fire‐control system to detect Hizbollah tank‐killers before or during missile launch and respond by direct point fire.
To conclude, the important thing to remember with ATGMs is that penetration doesn't necessarily mean defeat. The crew might be shaken, wounded or dead, but if the vehicle is well-designed it may fight on. And, that tactics are very important for survivability.

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More from @Sam_Cranny

16 Jul
A thread on shaped charges, building upon yesterday's theme of ATGMs, which you can find here: Shaped charges are essentially a type of hollow charge explosive, designed to magnify the explosive's effects on a target. Image
A hollow charge is an explosive with a hollow cavity facing the target - this section can be a cone, hemisphere, or a number of other shapes. The cavity causes gaseous products formed during detonation of the explosive to focus, concentrating the blast's energy.
This is known variously as the Munroe Effect (US/UK) and the Neuman Principle (Ger). Munroe showed that the cavity would increase penetration into steel by printing 'USN 1884' into a charge and detonating it against steel. Image
Read 24 tweets
15 Jul
Some artillery related things for your Thursday morning tea/coffee/energy drink: First up, @BAESystemsInc has revealed details of UK trials of its extended range 155 mm artillery round that were conducted last year: janes.com/defence-news/n…
It offers a range increase over the current suite of ammo available to the AS90, and also provided a range in excess of 40 km with an L52 firing stand, showing it will be compatible with MFP.
Next up, the @USArmy is conducting final assembly of its first four ERCA prototypes. To date the service has been test firing an early version of the weapon that it dubs the XM1299 prototype zero.
Read 5 tweets
13 May
A little thread on the PLA's Xinjiang Military District (MD). Affiliated with the Western Theatre Command (WTC) as this Jamestown image shows. Primary role is likely related to internal security, but also with responsibility for defending against India. Image
It is thought to actually host more troops than the Tibet MD, around 70k vs 40k according to the Belfer Center. It is presumed that Xinjiang would be one of the first responders to support Tibet in the event of conflict with India because of this, along with the WTC.
ORBAT: Mech Inf Div, Armour regt, 2 x Inf regt, Arty regt, GBAD regt, 3 x Motorized inf divs, Arty bde, "high powered" arty bde, SOF bde, 2 x independent regts, 2 x border def regts. There is also a PLARF formation with DF-21 missiles based near Korla. Image
Read 15 tweets
8 Apr
It has taken a day or two but @tom_bullock_ has brought together this @JanesINTEL article on observed Russian troop movements to the border with Ukraine: janes.com/defence-news/n… Image
Tom has identified at least 14 separate Russian units, including what may be the 119 Missile Brigade with Iskanders. The moves at present appear benign and somewhat leisurely. And, as others have observed, there are few signs of an offensive nature at present. Image
There has been some cyber activity recently, including a state-sponsored attack on a Ukrainian government site in an attempt to steal data, and there was much greater activity in February. But, there are no clear signs of a targeted campaign. Which we might expect to precede war.
Read 10 tweets
28 Sep 20
A quarterly reminder that tracking and engaging UAVs is not a simple or easy task. These videos release by an Azeri YouTube outlet show what are supposedly Baryaktar TB2 strikes against Armenia:
A lot of the targets shown are short range air defence assets, notionally designed to protect a forces against low flying aircraft and helos. Some limited ability to engage missiles could be present too.
Why does this keep happening? Drones being used to smash air defences and other vehicles seemingly at will? Well, first off, locating and tracking UAVs is hard. They can be built largely from composites or plastic as opposed to metals like large aircraft.
Read 12 tweets
26 Sep 20
I think a few analysts might dispute this. The PLA airports are outnumbered by Indian ones in the LOAC region, and the PLAAF is aware of this. There’s a rail route under construction, but the short term stuff would depend on which side had control of the sky.
This kind of rhetoric is partially fuelled by the last war; China had to relinquish its territorial gains as it could not support its troops. This may be intended to signal that it won’t be the same next time. There have definitely been improvements eg the joint logistics force Image
But fighting in mountains is hard, and the forces assigned to the Tibetan MD aren’t that numerous. They’d be relying on PLAGF forces from elsewhere to maintain the fight. And, more importantly, the planes and roads to get them there. All infrastructure could be threatened. Image
Read 5 tweets

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