So there's a live discussion in gvt about whether France should go on the red list - requiring £££ hotel quarantine from those who come back.

As per @breeallegretti and @HarryYorke1

Some health figures in favour, but it's a massive call requiring ministerial agreement

1/
I'm told Whitehall believe there is a short window to make a decision on France - possibly just days

France is the second biggest holiday destination after Spain. Most state schools break up next Friday. There's a belief a decision needs to be made before then.

2/
Why? If a decision is made after next Friday, then too many people will already be abroad and there wont be enough hotel rooms to quarantine all those coming back.

But will they?

3/
Look at this from Our World In Data.

Far more UK cases than French cases

UK 244,691 cases in the 7 days to July 14

France 27,713 cases in the 7 days to July 14 Image
How about variants? UK almost entirely Delta variant, France a mixture of Delta and Alpha. Some sources had suggested that Beta variant in France was reason for concern though this only accounts for 6% of cases Image
Boris Johnson has previously been cautious about over dramatic moves that might disrupt the UK-French border. No clarity anywhere. But one to watch.

A No10 spokesman said that decisions and data are kept continually under review
Also: France's vaccination levels almost caught up with the UK - see this chart Image
So this is some of the French government data

santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-tr…

This is a lagging indicator, but data from 22/6 shows 15% beta-South Africa variant Image

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More from @SamCoatesSky

8 Jul
I understand there is concern in Whitehall over what to do about the sheer number of people expected to be told to isolate in the coming days.

This could be a big problem over next 5 weeks after Sajid Javid announced 10 day quarantine for double jabbed wont end until Aug 16
The Department for Health privately confirmed to others in Whitehall it is looking at the scheme

Chancellor Rishi Sunak confirmed one plan this morning: to make the Covid app bluetooth function less sensitive. There were 356,036 app alerts in England in week to June 30 - up 62%
But some in Whitehall want Sajid Javid to go further

Look at the stats

In the week to June 30, 135,685 people tested positive

and

281,500 people who had come into contact with Covid patients were identified via NHS Test and Trace and told to isolate

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 6 tweets
18 Jun
Why the Tories should be worried by the Chesham and Amersham by-election

6 key lessons
news.sky.com/story/why-the-…
Takeaway 1

Westminster conventional logic - that the Tories would win - wrong *again*
Takeaway 2 - The Lib Dems live!
Read 7 tweets
18 Jun
Winning the Tory stronghold since the seat was first created in 1974, look at the huge changes to the share of the vote in Chesham and Amersham. Voters believed it was a two horse race

LDEM: 56.7% (+30.4)
CON: 35.5% (-19.9)
GRN: 3.9% (-1.6)
LAB: 1.6% (-11.2)
REFUK: 1.1% (+1.1)
Huge collapse in the Tory vote definitely wasn’t seen coming by many in Tory circles - it’s MPs expected to hold on by around 1,500. They lost by 8,028
One Tory told me yesterday alarm bells rang only when colleagues were getting out the vote. “Half said they wouldn’t vote for us and the other half wouldn’t look at us in the eye which is never a good sign”

Tbf leading Lib Dem’s a week ago were also sceptical they’d win
Read 5 tweets
14 Jun
Fascinating development

Keir Starmer on @LBC says “having checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland is not the way forward”

Appears to be a boost for Boris Johnson, giving him cover from Labour to challenge EU approach to Protocol
I asked a Labour source whether Labour supported the NI protocol when it was agreed in December

They sidestepped the q and said the vote in December was the Free Trade Agreement not the protocol

That’s true about late Dec vote but….
Here is then Labour shadow cabinet office minister Rachel Reeves on Dec 10 backing the Northern Ireland protocol ….

AND

Asking about checks - giving the impression they were aware backing the protocol means backing checks

But now Starmer is walking back from that…?
Read 6 tweets
10 Jun
Health Secretary Matt Hancock starts his committee hearing being asking to rebut point by point the allegations made by Dominic Cummings.

He says he was never advised, as Cummings said, people didn't get the Covid treatment they needed and is very proud of how the NHS responded
Hancock denies blaming others for PPE shortages. "That's not a fair recollection" he said.

He said gvt had to remove a "piece of bureaucracy" from the Treasury that put a limit on the price that could be paid for PPE ... but has always recognised it was a team effort.
Did Hancock tell PM in March people would be tested before returning to care homes?

Hancock: "We set out a policy to give people tests" "when tests were available" then "I set about building" that capacity.

But he also said:
Read 6 tweets
15 May
Latest Opinium poll spells post election trouble for Labour

* Voting intention shows 13 point Tory lead
* Con 44% vs Lab 31%
* Johnson has 17 point lead over Starmer as best prime minister
* A third (33%) of 2019 Labour voters want Starmer to resign

/
NB polls post election often amplify the result as a consequence of the coverage
When voters are asked who would be best as prime minister it’s 40% Johnson vs 23% Starmer.

This is both a boost for Johnson (up 8 points) and a drop for Starmer (down 6 points).
Read 4 tweets

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