Thread by @SamCoatesSky

So there's a live discussion in gvt about whether France should go on the red list - requiring £££ hotel quarantine from those who come back.

As per @breeallegretti and @HarryYorke1

Some health figures in favour, but it's a massive call requiring ministerial agreement

1/

I'm told Whitehall believe there is a short window to make a decision on France - possibly just days

France is the second biggest holiday destination after Spain. Most state schools break up next Friday. There's a belief a decision needs to be made before then.

2/

Why? If a decision is made after next Friday, then too many people will already be abroad and there wont be enough hotel rooms to quarantine all those coming back.

But will they?

3/

Look at this from Our World In Data.

Far more UK cases than French cases

UK 244,691 cases in the 7 days to July 14

France 27,713 cases in the 7 days to July 14

How about variants? UK almost entirely Delta variant, France a mixture of Delta and Alpha. Some sources had suggested that Beta variant in France was reason for concern though this only accounts for 6% of cases

Boris Johnson has previously been cautious about over dramatic moves that might disrupt the UK-French border. No clarity anywhere. But one to watch.

A No10 spokesman said that decisions and data are kept continually under review

Also: France's vaccination levels almost caught up with the UK - see this chart

So this is some of the French government data

santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-tr…

This is a lagging indicator, but data from 22/6 shows 15% beta-South Africa variant