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Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

18 Jun

Winning the Tory stronghold since the seat was first created in 1974, look at the huge changes to the share of the vote in Chesham and Amersham. Voters believed it was a two horse race

LDEM: 56.7% (+30.4)
CON: 35.5% (-19.9)
GRN: 3.9% (-1.6)
LAB: 1.6% (-11.2)
REFUK: 1.1% (+1.1)

Huge collapse in the Tory vote definitely wasn’t seen coming by many in Tory circles - it’s MPs expected to hold on by around 1,500. They lost by 8,028

One Tory told me yesterday alarm bells rang only when colleagues were getting out the vote. “Half said they wouldn’t vote for us and the other half wouldn’t look at us in the eye which is never a good sign”

Tbf leading Lib Dem’s a week ago were also sceptical they’d win

Read 5 tweets

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

14 Jun

@LBC

Fascinating development

Keir Starmer on @LBC says “having checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland is not the way forward”

Appears to be a boost for Boris Johnson, giving him cover from Labour to challenge EU approach to Protocol

I asked a Labour source whether Labour supported the NI protocol when it was agreed in December

They sidestepped the q and said the vote in December was the Free Trade Agreement not the protocol

That’s true about late Dec vote but….

Here is then Labour shadow cabinet office minister Rachel Reeves on Dec 10 backing the Northern Ireland protocol ….

AND

Asking about checks - giving the impression they were aware backing the protocol means backing checks

But now Starmer is walking back from that…?

Read 6 tweets

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

10 Jun

Health Secretary Matt Hancock starts his committee hearing being asking to rebut point by point the allegations made by Dominic Cummings.

He says he was never advised, as Cummings said, people didn't get the Covid treatment they needed and is very proud of how the NHS responded

Hancock denies blaming others for PPE shortages. "That's not a fair recollection" he said.

He said gvt had to remove a "piece of bureaucracy" from the Treasury that put a limit on the price that could be paid for PPE ... but has always recognised it was a team effort.

Did Hancock tell PM in March people would be tested before returning to care homes?

Hancock: "We set out a policy to give people tests" "when tests were available" then "I set about building" that capacity.

But he also said:

Read 6 tweets

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

15 May

Latest Opinium poll spells post election trouble for Labour

* Voting intention shows 13 point Tory lead
* Con 44% vs Lab 31%
* Johnson has 17 point lead over Starmer as best prime minister
* A third (33%) of 2019 Labour voters want Starmer to resign

/

NB polls post election often amplify the result as a consequence of the coverage

When voters are asked who would be best as prime minister it’s 40% Johnson vs 23% Starmer.

This is both a boost for Johnson (up 8 points) and a drop for Starmer (down 6 points).

Read 4 tweets

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

8 May

NEW

Blame game inside Labour escalating tonight 🔥

There's a fight over whether Labour Deputy Leader Angela Rayner should get the blame for elections as formal campaign head - or whether it should be Keir Starmer

Cont

Critics are suggesting Rayner should take the blame for Labour losses.

But other Labour sources defend her:

"Trying to blame Angela for the failures of this campaign which were entirely run by Keir's office, and Keir has himself said he will take responsibility for....

.... is as absurd as it is ridiculous.

Lab source cont: "(Sacking her would mean) sacrificing a working class female care worker because some North Londoner focus groupers can't connect with the North. Everybody knows his office ran the campaign".

Read 4 tweets

Sam Coates Sky

@SamCoatesSky

6 May

Polls have closed

Signs of Labour recriminations evident in anticipation of difficult results

As ballots are counted in Hartlepool, one question being asked internally is: was it wise of Labour to chose to hold the Hartlepool by-election on Super Thursday and dominate?

1/

2/ Remember political parties have a fair degree of control over when to hold a by-election caused by the departure of one of their own.

Holding Hartlepool today was Labour’s choice

Here’s the Institute for Government Cath Haddon on how Labour “could have taken a bit longer”

3/ Why might you have wanted to hold Hartlepool another time?

The main reason wd be to avoid it on the same day as the Tees Valley Metro Mayor vote.

Labour folk expect Tory Ben Houchen to be re-elected meaning his voters - also Tories - would already be out in force

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