Idk, it seems almost impossible to attribute causality of the current covid wave to CDC masking policies vs Delta variant. Our YouGov/Economist survey data suggest the CDC announcement didn’t really even change trends in masking rates for vaccinated or unvaccinated Americans.
People should focus on opinion leaders rather than gov advice — we know support for Trump and news source drives way more masking/vaccination behavior more than attention to news or trust in scientists + institutions. Blame the source of anti-vax opinion before gov guidelines.
Masking *among vaccinated people* changed a lot once they started getting vaccines. But the trend was already moving. And they are not the ones contributing to the spike in cases!
The point is about DiD! No one here is arguing against public health interventions. I don’t want to be too fiery or rude, but my argument is we have no evidence the CDC changed masking behavior among vaccinated ppl & caused the current surge—as the original quoted tweet suggests
What happened in late June/early July to cause the current spike in cases and hospitalizations? Hint: it wasn’t a change in CDC guidelines

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More from @gelliottmorris

13 Jul
A rough point projection is that the Democrats will win 47% of the two-party vote, depending on how you average current polls, in next year's House midterms. That would be a bloodbath—and they'd probably lose the Senate too. (Again all conditional on a R+6 national environment.)
The "conditional" part here is key, since the uncertainty on a point prediction a yr & a half away is like 10 points on vote share. I would note, however, that people objected based on this fallacy in both 2018 and 2020 when fundamentals nailed natl shares
Another point is that once election subversion became a partisan issue, whatever punishment Republicans would have faced for it shrunk dramatically. You can see this in the current polling for the generic House ballot, presidential approval, and partisan fav ratings
Read 4 tweets
9 Jul
Just shy of a majority of Republicans believe states should override the results of the popular vote of their citizens, and a supermajority believes Trump is the rightful president…
Some ppl are asking me to clarify that these numbers are from Nov 2020, which is right and I should have put that in the OG tweet (even though it's on the graph already).

But note that updated numbers are similar! 74% of Rs in YouGov/Econ polls say Biden is illegitimate pres.
Read 4 tweets
18 Jun
Going offline for a few weeks to finish my book manuscript and finally get married (after nearly a year delay from covid). See y’all ✌️
by the way (and nobody is paying me to say this) i have found @ScrivenerApp to be an invaluable tool for composing long works of writing. my two tips for writing have long been (a) to go out for aimless walks regularly, like the greeks did, and (b) to learn how to use scrivener
(there is a long and fascinating history of philosophy and walking that is much richer than the story of thales falling down a well (which is potentially fallacious) or than the stuff you hear from the bandwagon Lindy adoptees today. if you’re interested:…)
Read 4 tweets
16 Jun
"Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of critical race theory?"
Democrats: 86% favorable
Republicans: 91% unfavorable

"Do you believe teaching critical race theory is..."
Dems: 85% "good for America"
Reps: 88% "bad"…
Rs are also 10 points likelier than Ds to say they have heard "a lot" about critical race theory, and among that group, Rs are 15 points likelier to say they have a firm understanding of it. Talk about partisan cues!
Sorry, to clarify, the population for the first question is people who (a) have heard "a lot" or "a little" about CRT AND (b) who say they know what it is
Read 4 tweets
12 Jun
It is very hard to distinguish the far right’s position on labor policy from “the free market is only good when it hurts poor people”
Awww, did someone go and get addicted to artificially low prices of services due to restrictions on worker organizing and wage exploitation
If the mixed market has (at least temporarily) produced conditions in which workers aren’t forced to sign contracts for underpaying, mentally taxing jobs just to feed their families, it is on employers to figure out how to provide enticing alternatives to poverty wages.
Read 7 tweets
10 Jun
Contrary to what you might expect, it’s non-voters, not Trump voters, who are most likely to refuse getting vaccinated for covid-19. This makes for an interesting paradox since voting for Trump is still the strongest predictor of being vax-reluctant. Huh?…
The solution is that many of the demographic variables that predict hesitancy *other than* being a Republican also predict non-voting. So the observed non-voting effect is actually a combo of other traits, with huge pools of people, whereas the GOP effect acts alongside them.
The big traits acting here are: not paying attention to the news, not having a degree, being young & living in rural areas. All are correlated with both political activity and hard opposition to the vaccine. (Note I am not counting people with low access as hard vax-reluctant.)
Read 4 tweets

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