I have worrying news from Australia, which you may already know if you have been following.
TTI alone used to work to shut down clusters. Now a moderately tight lockdown and TTI together does not work to stop the outbreak. Has lead to a plateau of sorts instead.
If we make a vaccine resistant strain that is as fast as delta and even less responsive to vaccines… it may become very difficult to stop outbreaks even with mitigations in place. Countries that can’t “lockdown” very strictly may be very hard hit.
For some countries “lockdown” means crops fail and famine…
It is VITALLY important that we urgently reduce transmission… NOW!
The “lockdown” was thought by some to be loose because essential retail was not defined, however movement and economic activity was still slowed…
This week non essential retail is closed, and construction work stopped. We hope it will be effective.
Other important things to note: Low vaccination rates. Almost no work done in ventilation, filtration.
Hmmm, we have also started recommending outdoor masks when in queues or shopping areas (around people)… that is interesting. I wonder if we have had transmissions in these settings?
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Both @NSWCHO and @VictorianCHO have made me feel *VERY* reassured about some things today.
I was so pleased to hear Prof Sutton reveal the difficulties UK is facing with “opening up”. He has reassured us that this must be defeated, if we can. That this is a difficulty that we don’t want to accept lightly.
Dr Chant has said vaccines for kids are being planned for.
These are wonderful public health officials working under difficult circumstances.
I am also deeply grateful to all in the community playing their part with testing, getting vaccinated and reducing movement.
When thinking about myocarditis, vaccines in children, and COVID-19 in children, it’s important to recognise that myocarditis is a recognised complication of COVID-19 and it is under-estimated in young fit people. Investigations should be done into the same for kids. ->
-> This study was done on young athletes. Symptom based diagnosis was less sensitive than investigations. We may be missing this in kids with COVID-19, although mild myocarditis changes often resolve spontaneously.
The point being… the very rare myocarditis in kids from vaccine should be compared to the risk of myocarditis with COVID19 natural infection, and the myriad of other complications of COVID-19.
It’s fine to ask questions, and cross pollinate knowledge… but at some point we have to also be humble and willing to learn.
If you have a building where airborne disease is spreading… the building needs fixing. Ask the building experts.
Indoor air quality and aerosol/particle control is something that engineers and scientists have been working on long before we started trying to apply it to COVID-19.
Disease control in buildings has been thoroughly researched by engineers and applied in hospitals too.
I need a hug. I have spent more than an hour on the phone to a loved one in the UK. The descriptions of everyday life there are terrible. From the mental health and moral injuries in essential workers and others, to the graphic description of how people’s health has changed.
On the TV screens joy… but in homes a sense of nervousness. Despite being vaccinated, people don’t really know what to expect as the third wave rolls in… and memories of trauma are as fresh as can be…
Particularly touching… watching a healthy taxi driver, that used to be chatty and energetic, shuffling to his car in the morning, to breathless for banter. 🥺
@profdalefisher on @60Mins says that either you’re are vaccinated or not. That we have to “live with it” & that it will spread asymptomatically between most so it will be impossible to contact trace.
A brave new world where we leave those that don’t respond to vaccine to die?
My view:
It will be those vulnerable people that we left to die that will be immunocompromised. Immunocompromised persons are more likely to produce a wide variety of strains.
Also, it doesn’t feel right to do this.
(If we haven’t done so already.)
Before someone says mAb… not only have variants reduced the efficacy of our vaccines, they also reduce the efficacy of mAbs.