Good vaccines reduce hospitalizations & death by ~10x.
But being young reduces them by even more. Depending on your age, 10, 100, 1000x…
So being old and vaccinated is still more dangerous than being young and unvaccinated.
The likelihood of death of a 90yo if infected might be ~1.5%
The likelihood of death of an unvaccinated 25yo might be 0.01%.
So even if all 90yo are vaccinated and no 25yo are, you will still see more 90yo hospitalized (and dead) than 25yo
The thing that vaccines will do is not dramatically change the makeup of who dies (they will change it a bit). What they will really do is, for any given age, reduce deaths at that age by ~10x
Back to the stat quoted then. Yes, “60% of ppl in serious conditions being vaccinated” is reasonable. They’re likely old/have pre-existing conditions. Thankfully, there’s likely~10x fewer of them dying.
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COVID prevalence in Europe
Left: July to November 2020
Right: July 2021 so far
To all the countries that have eliminated it in Europe: Don't let your guard down. Keep a fence on your borders. Race to vaccinate. Keep improving test-trace-isolate programs. The speed & gravity of the Delta wave will depend on it.
Should everybody learn to speak English? Yes: 1. Network effects of a common language are stronger than ever in History 2. It's the 1st time these are global 3. English is the most spoken / written language & the fastest growing
Only one thing can prevent this
Thread 🧵
1k years ago, ppl mostly spoke with those around them. Little need for a lingua franca. In Europe, Latin was enough, learned by the Church and the elites.
After the printing press, suddenly you can learn & communicate w/ ppl far away. Incentive to understand each other ➡️ languages appear around the dialects most published. In Europe you go from a gradient of languages to German, English, French, Spanish...