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BɅRTON Profile picture
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18 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
There is a black swan event no one is discussing yet.

Extrapolating from the Israeli data, Joe Biden's covid antibody level is likely to dip below protection threshold pretty soon.

He got his first shot on Dec 21st. He is 78 years old (diminishing B cell and T cell activity)
If they don't monitor his antibody titer level (cdc said no), and if they are not being proactive in administrating him with a booster shot soon, his risk of getting sick with covid will be growing exponentially in a month or two.
A worse scenario would be both the Potus and vpotus getting sick with delta variant in the fall around the debt ceiling/ government shutdown deadline on Sept 30th...

I hope we have not run out of REGN cocktail by then.
Trump's antibody level is waning too. Plus he still had some REGN antibody whe he got his covid shot, which in theory would have reduced the magnitude of vaccine-induced antigen challenges.

Plus Trump does not have access to Walter Reed any more?

More covid drama in the fall.

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More from @Barton_options

BɅRTON Profile picture
18 Jul
Do we need a booster shot of COVID vaccine every year for the rest of our life?

Probably not. (it is physically impossible to have 4-year data for a virus emerged 1.5 year ago, but I can make an educated guess).
A few considerations:

Vaccines on a 0-1-6 month schedule in theory generate much longer-lasting immunity than the same one on 0-1 month schedule.

Extrapolating from common-cold beta-coronaviruses, it takes 2 years for them to genetically drift into immune escape.
So it really boils down to whether people care about getting mildly sick from COVID in the future.

If they don't care and they don't interact with large number of people everyday, *maybe* an updated shot once every 4-6 years. (i know people who never get TDAP booster ever)
Read 6 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
9 Jul
1/ Paycheck Protection Grants - stuff you wish you don't know.

Right now, treasury is giving out $3-4Bn a day(!) in SBA PPP grants, free money for "small" business.

"" used, because Mnuchin allowed some mega churches to be paid via SBA. payment amount has grown since....
2/ so not sure who qualifies as small business any more.

so much free money is given out right now that Fiscal year to date SBA spending is the 2nd *largest expenditure* category (only behind social security).
3/ since "small" business is getting 33% more free payroll money from SBA than unemployment benefits being sent out, it is should be easy for small business to pay people a little more than unemployment?
Read 4 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
30 Jun
1/ RRP analysis that you won't get elsewhere

EOQ is the window dressing time for EU/Japanese banks, because how their Basal III compliance is put in place.

End-of-quarter balance-sheet composition very important for GSIBs in those areas.
2/ They don't want to hold bank reserve at EOQ, so the fastest way is to quit doing Repos (taking in bank reserve and lend out UST/MBS etc)

EU/Japanese Banks do a lot of repos with money-market funds. And they will stop on 3/31, 6/30, 9/30 and 12/31 every quarter, for ONE day.
3/ we have 90 counter-parties today actively using Fed RRP. 92 MMFs are participating + Fannie and Freddie.

So 90 out 94 users are using it today, which reflects that some major Repo players (EU/Japanese banks) are leaving the playground for 1 day.
Read 6 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
27 Jun
1/ Talked with a CVS minute-clinic nurse practitioner at Austin today.

She mentioned that lately nearly than 50% of the COVID positive tests are coming from fully-vaccinated folks (asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, e.g. a sore throat), who are accompanying a sick relative.
2/ The underlying dynamic is potentially that one unvaccinated person gets COVID, and then turns every vaccinated persons in the household asymptomatic spreaders for a couple of days.
3/ Before the arrival of the doubly-contagious delta variant, this issue was not too concerning.

But now, this summer is going to be "interesting".
Read 5 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
26 Jun
Was today THE LOTTO day of the year?
Some of the stuff I noticed.

Best gap open lotto: NKE, 40 bagger before 845am.
Best intraday lotto: EXPR, 100 bagger at noon time
Best HLOD lotto: SPCE, 190 bagger (if bot near the close yesterday) at expiration.
I don't know what to say about this..
Read 4 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
13 Jun
1/ CBDC vs crypto = commercial banking system vs. shadowing banking system.

There are two somewhat decoupled bank systems, where money/credit creation are somewhat independent.
2/ We have the commercial banks that issue loans to household, business & government

money creation is mostly done via term loans, and its supply affects consumer price inflation in goods & services.

CBDC is in this realm.
3/ shadow banking system, loosely speaking, has to do with financial assets (tradable securities).

Money creation is done via a hybrid of term loans (UST, corporate bond) and callable loans (margin debt, overnight repos, derivatives)
Read 8 tweets

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