Many have asked me about spate of IPOs and NFOs launches and my thoughts. Should they invest or not?

Another question: why are AMCs launching NFOs at expensive valuations?

My thoughts on this subject:
If you had bought 5kg of sugar from a grocer & you order another 2kgs next day, will the grocer not sell you more? They are in the business of selling you day to day groceries.

What and how much you need is your choice as a customer. You cannot blame the grocer for selling
Put differently:
Which medicine(scheme) needed for which patient(Investor) is job of a Doctor(MFD) or patient(DIY Investor). It is not job of Pharma Companies(AMCs).

Just because Pharma Cos repackage the medicines, does not mean patients should increase their dose
Similarly, #AMCs are in the business of manufacturing schemes and solutions and offer a variety to #Investors and #MFDs to choose from.

What suits which Investor and how much is their choice and not that of AMCs
Why are AMCs launching NFOs at these valuations and should one buy?

Answer lies in your own #discipline and your own #AssetAllocation and need for that product in your overall portfolio construct.

If it fits well up to certain % of your portfolio within your #AA then why not?
But to buy just because rest of the world is buying and you have #FOMO - think twice before allocating based on this.

Stop blaming the Manufacturers for your own actions/inactions.

Look within and follow some disciplined approach, you will not regret or have FOMO
Look at the NFO offerings dispassionately. Fit into your valuation metrics. Figure your own AA. Weigh it based on Need-Solution approach.

If it passes all filters go ahead and buy to the extent needed. Otherwise ignore it and move on. There will be many more opportunities
Just ensure you are not consuming same old wine which is packaged differently.

Learn to differentiate new wine in new bottle vs old wine in new bottle and then consume.

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More from @IamMisterBond

5 Jun
#FTSaga Update:

One more tranche of 3205 crs repaid on Jun 4'21

I had written an article on 24th April 20, day after @FTIIndia winding up schemes

In the end, I had mentioned a few points on what to expect going forward. Let me take each point and see where we stand today.
Link of my April 2020 article for ready reference:

Point No 1:
This is not delay or default and no haircuts so far

FM was asking time for reversal of Risk Aversion & markets to stabilise & normalise

Proven correct
Point No: 2

This is to give better value to Investors at cost of delayed liquidity

Again proven correct from almost 71% collections so far at far better values than on the date of winding up
Read 10 tweets
3 Jun
Investors have short memories and wish to dissect market phases based on what suits their sensibilities.

Current hot topic of discussions on Social Media:
How Mid and Small Caps have delivered stupendous returns since March 2020
What they have conveniently forgotten is their recent past experience of investing in Mid & Small Caps from Jan 18 to Dec 19 and till Mar 20

Above table shows entire journey of same Indices over different time periods vs 2 popular DAAF schemes and vs Smart Solution of MisterBond
Many have questioned our exit from Equity in July 2020(after entries in March 2020):
As @morganhousel has mentioned in his book:
It is not being conservative but creating Margin of Safety. This raises odds of success at a given level of risk by raising your chance of survival
Read 7 tweets
30 May
MisterBond's Rankings as on May 30'2021: From 01-04-15 to 30-05-21

Rankings of only those which were in existence from 01-04-15

Those wishing to subscribe can make an advance payment. Subscription will open from June 15 after making balance payment:
3 Types of Rankings:
1) IHR: Investor High Returns - Higher returns in higher return bands
2) IER: Investor Experience Returns - IHR adjusted for Volatility
3) % of observations of each scheme beating Industry Average
Large Cap Scheme Rankings:
Industry Avg: 8.50%
Number of Observations Completing 5 years: 284
Based on 5 year rolling returns
Read 8 tweets
18 Jan
Great news for #Investors. Verdict is out in #FranklinTempleton saga:

YES for #Winding Up all 6 schemes.

Now Goal Post should change and focus on giving mandate to @FTIIndia for liquidating assets. Here is my Thread on this subject:
Good news for #Investors of #franklintempleton :

-Total Cash Collections of all 6 schemes Rs.13789 crs +

- 5 out of 6 schemes cash positive

- only 6% of AUM left as borrowings in Income Ops
All this without any active intervention/selling/monetizing.

Imagine implications to positive liquidity creation when Fund Manager is allowed to actively Liquidate/Sell securities
Read 8 tweets
7 Jan
People are going Ga Ga on Markets crossing 14000 NIFTY. My take on this:

1. Most Retail Investors had exited in March 2020 crash
2. They waited for further correction to enter - that never happened
3. Most have been only waiting on the sidelines without participating
From July 2017 to Dec 2020,

NIFTY 50 posted + 11.50%
NIFTY Midcap has just managed to break even and come into +4% plus &
NIFTY Small Cap still not recovered full loss ( -1.50% )
Which just goes to show that those under Buy & Hold are only recouping their losses and have not managed to participate fully in post March 2020 rally.
Read 8 tweets
6 Jan
Khaas Baat with MisterBond in conversation with Padma Bhushan @Abhinav_Bindra. One of the most inspiring stories of the only Indian to have won an Olympic Gold Medal:

Episode 1:

Early Days - a Reluctant Athlete…

Thread of all the episodes below
Episode 2:

Role of his coaches. After shooting best Olympic score in Qualifying Round a lose tile responsible for 8th position in the Final Round in 2004…
Episode 3:

Concentrate on Process rather than Outcome. Control the Controllables. Convert long term to short term Goals to adapt to changing environment…
Read 6 tweets

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