John Bye Profile picture
18 Jul, 13 tweets, 6 min read
The British Grand Prix is running at full capacity this weekend, supposedly as a "scientific, data-gathering exercise".

I'm there, and it doesn't really look that way to me.

More like a festival where everyone forgot we're still in a pandemic. 😬

theguardian.com/sport/2021/jul…
For starters, anyone who is under 11 or fully vaccinated over 2 weeks ago doesn't have to be tested for covid before, during OR after the event.

Everyone else needs a lateral flow test every 48 hours to maintain their NHS Covid Pass .. but don't have to do any after the event.
It's also not clear how many people who test positive after the race will be linked back to the event.

When PHS did this they identified almost 2,000 Scottish cases related to Euro 2020.

Has anyone seen any data from England games or Wimbledon yet? 🤔

The Silverstone checklist page does say that "attendees can provide some basic data" for the Event Research Programme to help link any covid tests they may take after the event to their attendance.

But it's entirely optional.

silverstone.co.uk/events/formula…
As for enforcing entry rules, just like at Wembley, staff at the gates are only doing a visual check of covid passes.

They're not scanning QR codes or (contrary to what it says on the Silverstone website) checking anyone's ID to make sure it matches.

Once you're in, masks aren't required. Apparently PHE asked for this because "they want to understand what happens"!

A couple of months ago, when cases were low, that *might* have made sense. IF this was a genuine trial.

With cases now sky high it seems rather cavalier.
Silverstone's MD says "the view is that in a large-scale, open-air, outdoor venue it is not necessary to wear masks".

But those rules also apply to the indoor museum and merch stores and crowded grandstands. Hardly anyone is wearing a mask anywhere.

My own seems appropriate:
The event is also using the same ticketing rules as any other year, with no assigned seating except on Sunday.

Which means you were free to sit in a different grandstand every session on Friday and Saturday if you wanted.

Great for spreading the virus as widely as possible. 🙄
So we don't know how many people came here with covid, because kids and double vaccinated adults didn't need to be tested at any point.

And we won't know how many people caught it here, because PHE don't seem to care, and we've not been asked to take any tests after the event.
Quite how this equates to a "scientific, data-gathering exercise" isn't clear.

There's also no sign of any "special consideration to reduce risk of transmission", as the Event Research Programme promises.

Quite the contrary, in fact!

gov.uk/government/pub…
The only ERP information we have so far is a report on the first wave of trial events, which took place in April and May. When case numbers were 20 times lower than they are now.

Even these found some evidence of likely transmission at trial events.

gov.uk/government/pub…
The Executive Summary claims the Event Research Programme is a "world-leading study" which would gather "large amounts of data before, during and after" events.

But the Observations say the study design was "insufficient" and few people took tests both before *and* after events!
But instead of making the study design more robust, later events seem to have thrown out any pretence of science, and don't even ask people to take tests after the event!

It all looks like a flimsy excuse to let major events go ahead as planned before restrictions are lifted.

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More from @_johnbye

8 Jul
Honestly, this sounds a bit fishy.

The dashboard data says just over 50% of 18-24 year olds have had the vaccine so far.

But the latest ONS survey reports that about 90% said they were likely to take the vaccine if offered it, or have already had it.
Dashboard data:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccin…

Take up is 53% for 18-24 year olds, rising to 90%+ in over 60s.

ONS survey:
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

90%+ intention to get vaccinated in 18-25 age groups.

So what's going on? 🤔
Meanwhile the government is denying renewed reports of a shortage of the Pfizer vaccine.

Maybe they aren't being entirely honest? It would certainly explain the slow progress in vaccinating under 40s, as AstraZeneca isn't used in those age groups.

metro.co.uk/2021/07/07/gov…
Read 4 tweets
6 Jul
A timely reminder that even young, healthy people can be affected by severe long covid after having the virus.

This poor woman has suffered over a year of health problems, including blood clots on the lungs and heart inflammation. She's been largely housebound since March 2020!
Lifting all remaining covid rules when cases are rising rapidly in young people who aren't fully vaccinated yet (and, in the case of children, don't even have the option of being vaccinated yet) means many thousands more will suffer months of serious long term health problems.
The idea that it will all just magically be fine because it's summer and cases were very low last summer is clearly nonsense.

Covid is not seasonal. We've had major waves starting in March, September, December and June.

Cases in July are now as high as they were in December! Image
Read 4 tweets
4 Jul
It's not just school children who are being left to fend for themselves as the government lets covid rip.

Cases in university towns with large student populations soared as the academic year ended, with some of the highest rates in the country.

Source:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/intera…
Oxford: Image
Nottingham: Image
Read 10 tweets
28 Jun
It looks like Euro 2020 might have caused a massive surge in covid cases in young men in Scotland.

Unless someone can think of another reason for this odd pattern?
Daily case numbers in Scotland are now at their highest level of the entire pandemic.

Mostly in young, unvaccinated people. And with far higher rates amongst men than women.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
If you zoom in, there's a precipitous rise in cases from June 20th - 21st, almost doubling overnight, a week after Scotland's first match of the tournament.

Which is roughly how long you'd expect it to take for people to start showing symptoms and book a test. Image
Read 7 tweets
13 Jun
I wonder what @QMUL thinks of @profnfenton retweeting a post from an anti-vax conspiracy nut accusing colleague @dgurdasani1 of "misrepresenting the data" on covid deaths amongst vaccinated people?

Particularly ironic given Fenton's own record of mangling data...
Unsurprisingly, Dr Syed's claim that vaccination *increases* your risk of dying if you catch covid by 73% is utter nonsense.

A quick look at the ONS data shows the proportion of covid deaths in the oldest (most vaccinated) age groups has been falling. Exactly as you'd expect.
His whole argument rests on either ignoring the age of people who were vaccinated entirely or (in a later post) assuming that everyone who died was elderly.

Which, as I've just shown above, is far from true.
Read 10 tweets
12 Jun
The latest nonsense from @hartgroup_org members @ClareCraigPath and @profnfenton is that there's no danger from rising cases because they're not real (they are), hospital admissions aren't rising (they are), and asymptomatic testing isn't showing any rise (it is).
As usual Clare Craig quotes a lot of data that's completely meaningless, to "prove" nothing is really wrong.

Like 111 call data (covid calls go to a separate phoneline) and GP visits (you're not supposed to visit your GP if you have covid symptoms).

She talks about a "small uptick" in lateral flow test positivity, which she now says "successfully identified presymtpomatic patients in winter".

That small uptick is positivity doubling in 2 weeks.

We're now doing half a million LFTs a day on average.

Read 6 tweets

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