Results trading is one of the biggest plays on options markets worldwide. The theory goes like this :
Before results, IVs shoot up as both bulls and bears buy options expecting a major move in their chosen direction.
Now, it has been a proven theory that IVs "generally" overstate the actual move that happens post results. This has given rise to the famous results trades for options sellers where the sell straddles or strangles in order to capture the volatility crush post results.
Their trades are based on a higher POP per trade but less absolute profits per trade. Some results obviously are totally against any market expectations and the stock makes a huge move. This gives a major delta loss as well as sometimes when IV goes up, also a vega loss whammy.
There the question of trade management or firefighting comes into the picture. Unless strict position sizing is maintained, a major adverse move can wipe out a large part of the capital of a seller. One also needs more capital to firefight
Options buyers before results are not any better off. They run the chance of making more number of losses ( though defined) in a large number of trades and hope for those 1-2 major moves which covers the losses of the other losing trades.
What I am doing after a lot of testing the last results reason is something in between
1. When wrong --> small losses or very small profits
2. When right ---> small profits or large profits
Out of 4 possible outcomes, I win if any one of the 3 happens, so POP is 75%
I will also manage my positions when slightly trapped or when I want to extend profits, but
1.Will never require more capital
2. Will always be risk defined
The trick is to play a large number of results for this edge to show , any individual trade does not matter.

Remember, nobody can predict with certainty before results that how a stock will behave post results. We have all seen stock crashing after posting good results
I am using data & greeks analysis to :
1. Pick direction
2. Pick the strategy and strikes for a spread
3. Ensuring that loss is very small when wrong

And then hoping for the best :)
Will do 10 trades this season . Trades so far :
1. INFY : bullish direction wrong , out with small profits
2. HDFCBANK : bullish direction wrong, out with small profits
3. HCLTECH : ongoing, playing bearish
I will not play every result. I will put on trades only when my analysis suggests that I have a higher probability of winning or my losses will be very low when wrong. So, if tracking these trades track all and not just a specific trade
I hope this explains these results trades
and btw, I expect to be correct on maximum 40% of the trades directionally and will be wrong 60% of the time

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More from @SubhadipNandy16

20 Jul
I had this theory that if #Bitcoin went below $30k , this time it probably won't go up again. Let's see
1. I had earlier posted a distribution analysis for bitcoin
2. Traders have been primed by the price action of the past few months where it goes below $30k on weekends and then bounces back. This dip should see heavy accumulation from retail and thus a perfect distribution point
If this is not distribution, I don't know what is. If I were trading this, would have shorted below $29k with a stop at $31k and then progressively trailed stops
Read 8 tweets
20 Jul
BNF
NF
One can have any view looking at anything. Question is, do you trade your view ?
Read 9 tweets
20 Jul
Spread initiated at 2.60, now at 6. A loss of 3.40 per lot. Waiting with the spread, no adjustments as of now
#hcltech
Loss as of now is approx Rs.2300 per lot
If this loss crosses 10k, will sqoff the position and book losses. Else will wait.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
The lines win :)
Day's job done 😋
MFI reached 3 within the bar, extreme oversold. So sold 15800PE
Read 5 tweets
18 Jul
Tomorrow we should see extreme volatility given the ongoing newsflow
before pouncing on the ndtv link, learn to do some basic research, else you won't survive long in the markets. See washington post and this :
Read 5 tweets
17 Jul
Received a lot of queries on this as majority of the view that "IV generally drops post results", so any long vega strategy will lead to a loss and it's better to sell straddles/strangles.

I know that options selling to capture IV crush is a worldwide strategy :)
But what none of the responses have seemed to remember that there is also "generally" a vol expansion before results, generally starts 10 days before results declaration or earlier.
Look what happened to HDFCBANK IVs this time
Simple question : If there has been no vol expansion, can there be a further vol crush ?
Answer can be yes or no, both things possible. But the probabilities favour zero or minimal vol crush. Also remember, the theory of vol crush post results are "generally" , not a surety.
Read 9 tweets

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