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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
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19 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Maybe 2%+ of 20 somethings currently have covid. That's at least 1 in 50 people. Even removing the actively symptomatic or those isolating, pretty much every nightclub with more than a couple hundred people will still have *at least* 1 person there who has covid.
Repeat each day
I don't blame people for clubbing at all. I blame the government for putting us all in this situation of crazy high infections and all the guard rails removed.
Link to ONS infection survey on prevalence ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Remember NL rates shot through the roof after nightclubs opened and they had a testing policy. No test or Vax requirement in England.

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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
16 Jul
THREAD NE: The ONS Infection survey today confirmed the really concerning situation in the North East - 2.6% pop estimated with Covid, much higher than elsewhere.

Cases there are now 28x higher than there were 1 June. 1/6
Why? Contact rates haven't been higher than anywhere else and home working is on a par with all regions apart from London 2/6
It's not people going out more or going to work differently. 3/6
Read 7 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
15 Jul
The other really important thing is the ages of who is getting infected.

Firstly, case rates are now over 2000/100,00/week for 16-19 year olds (!!). That's 2% of 15-19 yr olds in the NE testing positive in the week to 9 July.

Secondly cases going up steeply in ALL ages. 1/4
Case rates are higher now for *under 50s* than they've ever been. About 65% of 40-49yr olds in NE are double vaxxed.

50-59 yrs almost as high (449/100k vs 528/100k in Nov). Over 85% double vaxxed.

Over 60s at half peak & rising, >90% double vaxxed.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccin… 2/4
Vaccines are definitely keeping cases down & will be having big impact on reducing hospitalisations too - BUT high case rates in older people will translate into some hospitalisation.

Vaccines are fab (get vaxxed!) but not infallible in face of unmitigated spread. 3/4
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
14 Jul
QUICK THREAD on North East (and Yorkshire):

Cases still going up very rapidly there and higher than they've ever been.

The NE is now not far off where London was in January and twice as high as previous peak. Yorks rising rapidly.
I had hoped it was flattening after the weekend showed lower numbers, but Monday is *already* a really big number and will keep going up for a couple of days yet.

Positivity rates very high in both and climbing.

Neither region is peaking just yet.
And unfortunately these cases are translating into hospital admissions. In both regions cases are very high in over 50s (although highest in young adults and teenagers).

E.g dashboard gives a rate of over *950* cases/100k/week for 40-45 year olds in NE.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?…
Read 6 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
14 Jul
THREE things:

TLDR: are we about to have another testing crisis?

1) feeling a bit worried for London in the coming days/weeks if PCR tests are getting hard to come by...
2) If testing capacity is constrained again (like last Sept) will be v hard to interpret case numbers over coming weeks.
3) people might rely on rapid lateral flow tests they can do at home - but less accurate and might not catch first few day or two of infectiousness - and will people report the result so that it's counted?

/END
Read 4 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
12 Jul
Looking through latest SAGE SPI-M models:

@ShaunLintern has been reporting tirelessly on how NHS is already under incredible strain, with operations *already* being cancelled in some areas.

Spi-M: sustained periods of over 1K admissions day likely.

Govt: it's fine! 1/4
Gov: "herd immunity by infection? us? no no no"

SAGE: "extremely high prevalence of infection" over next two months...

if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck... 2/4
Warwick SAGE modelling paper highlights all the problems with mass infection: variants emerging, ineffectiveness of contact tracing, variants not being spotted, long covid, workplace & educational disruption.

gov: "It's fine" 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
9 Jul
Been chatting to a hospital doc friend tonight.
"Just saw a terrified twentysomething with a very high oxygen requirement. ... It’s very scary."

"We are writing off a generation. The text books will have a chapter dedicated to complications of Covid for years to come"
and yes, young people much much less likely to need hospital than older people, but the plan is also to allow more infections than we've ever allowed before.
Out of control infections are causing:
- mass disruption in schools
- disruption to NHS care as staff isolating
- admissions to go up in an NHS that is already overstretched and traumatised
- vulnerable people to fear going out
Read 5 tweets

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