Looking through latest SAGE SPI-M models:
@ShaunLintern has been reporting tirelessly on how NHS is already under incredible strain, with operations *already* being cancelled in some areas.
Spi-M: sustained periods of over 1K admissions day likely.
Govt: it's fine! 1/4
@ShaunLintern has been reporting tirelessly on how NHS is already under incredible strain, with operations *already* being cancelled in some areas.
Spi-M: sustained periods of over 1K admissions day likely.
Govt: it's fine! 1/4
Gov: "herd immunity by infection? us? no no no"
SAGE: "extremely high prevalence of infection" over next two months...
if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck... 2/4
SAGE: "extremely high prevalence of infection" over next two months...
if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck... 2/4
Warwick SAGE modelling paper highlights all the problems with mass infection: variants emerging, ineffectiveness of contact tracing, variants not being spotted, long covid, workplace & educational disruption.
gov: "It's fine" 3/4
gov: "It's fine" 3/4
Gov: it's *inevitable* that there will be an exit wave.
It's not. Israel did NOT have one, maintaining mitigation measures until covid very low.
They are now (much later) having an imported Delta surge - and reintroduced measures to contain it.
ft.com/content/8c3ec3… 4/4
It's not. Israel did NOT have one, maintaining mitigation measures until covid very low.
They are now (much later) having an imported Delta surge - and reintroduced measures to contain it.
ft.com/content/8c3ec3… 4/4
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