Been chatting to a hospital doc friend tonight.
"Just saw a terrified twentysomething with a very high oxygen requirement. ... It’s very scary."

"We are writing off a generation. The text books will have a chapter dedicated to complications of Covid for years to come"
and yes, young people much much less likely to need hospital than older people, but the plan is also to allow more infections than we've ever allowed before.
Out of control infections are causing:
- mass disruption in schools
- disruption to NHS care as staff isolating
- admissions to go up in an NHS that is already overstretched and traumatised
- vulnerable people to fear going out
- higher risk of new variants emerging
- higher impact on more deprived communities

And Javid tells us to expect infections 3x higher than now.
And the govt plan is to stop the isolations instead of their cause.

Won't stop potential of variants. Won't stop admissions or long covid or help vulnerable people scared to go out. Or their friends & families restricting their own lives to protect them.

It's wrong. /END

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More from @chrischirp

7 Jul
QUICK NE CASE UPDATE BEFORE FOOTBALL:

Cases in NE continuing to grow fast and much higher than all other regions. Image
It's not just testing - similar pattern seen for positivity rates. Image
The hotspots are centred around Newcastle / Sunderland area and Hartlepool Image
Read 11 tweets
5 Jul
I was hoping to dig through Sanger variant data for NE today but only 4% of NE June's cases & 19% of May cases have been sequenced so far (compared to e.g 70% & 23% for NW respectively).

This is the lowest of any region for both months - not sure why but it's frustrating. 1/2
It's likely NE rapid rise is a combination of the various factors people have suggested: high deprivation, lower January peak, football, students... but none on its own is unique to NE & start of rapid rise predated football.

But I'd like to be surer it's not a bad variant. 2/2
PS so far, NE looks like just a Delta rise - over 95% of sequenced cases in June were Delta. But as I said, small numbers.
Read 4 tweets
3 Jul
THREAD: Something weird is happing in the North East - as mentioned today by @Unusual_Times and it came up briefly in the @IndependentSage briefing today.

But I've looked a bit closer and it's a bit worrying. 1/5
Their cases are rising very rapidly - as are their positivity rates and hospitalisation rates. The last two days are likely undestimates as well due to some test results still to come back. 2/5
If we look at cases on a log scale (where exponential growth is a straight line. Steeper straight lines mean faster growth), we can see that NE starts growing faster beginning of June.

SW grew that fast too - prob due to combo of half term + G7 - but has slowed down since. 3/5
Read 6 tweets
2 Jul
THREAD: Where are we in UK with cases, where are we going and should we care?

TLDR: nowhere good, somewhere worse, absolutely yes.

1/24 (yes, I know, another long one. Still worth a read I hope!)
We are at almost 30,000 daily cases again - numbers last seen in mid December.

Cases are climbing steeply. 2/24 Image
They are climbing in all nations now - over the last week growth in all nations was about 70%.

This is clearer when looking at the same plot on a log scale (2nd chart).

It's not just testing- positivity is rising too (note that positivity chart only to 26 June) 3/24 ImageImageImage
Read 25 tweets
29 Jun
THREAD on vaccination, population immunity & children.

TLDR: Current gov policy seems to be getting to population immunity by vaxxing adults and infecting kids.

Are we really saying better to infect millions of kids than to a) prevent them getting it and b) vax them? 1/8
Ultimately we want to control covid by high percentage of population being immune.

With Delta we probably need 85%+ of population immune (assuming R0~7). Children are 21% of English population.

You *cannot* get to 85% without high proportion of children being immune. 2/8
The top bar shows breakdown of English popn by age - adults are 79% of population. Even if vax were perfect & all adults were vaxxed, you'd still need many children to be immune too.

Bottom bar shows 1 way of getting to 85% popn immunity with optimistic adult vax coverage. 3/8
Read 9 tweets
28 Jun
THREAD Confirmed cases in Scotland are as high as they've ever been (3.2K reported today) - and it's not just more testing, as positivity rates are over 10% and as high as they've been since the January 2021 peak.

Week on week cases have more than doubled.
Hospital & ICU occupancy are rising but still much lower than January's peak - obviously a very good thing.

This is because of vaccination and because infections are mainly in young people (also partly cos of vax)
But rapid recent increases have not yet fed through to hospitalisations - so hospitalisations will go up over next 2 wks.

Also, 20-30% of people infected will likely end up with long covid - with maybe 15% having it severely affect their daily lives
imperial.ac.uk/news/224853/ov…
Read 11 tweets

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