**If you do not get vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, you /will/ get infected one day.**
We won't eliminate SARS-CoV-2.
The choice isn't "vaccine or not" - it's "vaccine or infection". This is critical for weighing up risks/unknowns.
1/5
If the mindset is "vaccine or not", it is easy to think that waiting & watching is safer, because you stay in 'nothing happens' territory.
But this isn't accurate. As we see now: unvaccinated people are where cases are spiking & this is going to remain true for a long time.
2/5
I still hear concern from people about the 'unknown long-term effects' of vaccination.
But what I don't hear people also considering is the unknown long-term effects of COVID-19.
Or a fair comparison of the well-known shorter-term effects & risks of both.
3/5
So if you are not yet vaccinated & could be, please sit with this idea: When you get COVID-19, what is your risk?
Because the short-term risks are extremely real & serious - & the long-term damage risk & severity of Long COVID is only just starting to be understood.
4/5
Weighing up our risks is natural, & important. But we must honestly acknowledge what the choices are - & at this point, 'neither' just isn't an option long-term.
Vaccination not only protects you - it protects others.
Now is the time. Please get vaccinated if you can.
5/5
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The underlying problem isn't that the UK COVID-19 app is 'too sensitive.'
With a quarter-million cases & few restrictions, even if only correct contacts were pinged, that would be a huge number of alerts & isolations!
And yes - that's going to cause a lot of disruption 🤷🏻♀️
1/5
We're papering over the consequences of huge case numbers with debates around sensitivity.
Yes, we can turn sensitivity down - but # of alerts will continue to grow with cases - still potentially annoying people (who uninstall) & certainly continuing to cause disruption.
2/5
This isn't to say we shouldn't try to make pings more accurate, rather, that this isn't an actual solution to high number of pings right now.
Even if 30% pings were bad & we could get perfection now, UK cases rose 33% this week - so we are still at crazy high notifications.
3/5
I've run preliminary @nextstrain focal builds on 20B/S:796H (B.1.1.318) (pictured) & 20A/S:210T (B.1.619).
These aren't part of CoVariants (yet?) but they've caught a couple eyes and I thought it was worth taking a closer look.
1/8
20B/S:796H (B.1.1.318) is behind most of the recent increase in 'other' variants circulating in Greece (shown in grey on the CoVariants plot, below - disregard last point, low sequence #'s).
It's very prominent in Greece, but also found worldwide.
Taking a closer look at Europe only, we can see there's a large cluster in Greece, but also distinct clusters in Switzerland & Ireland, & many sequences from other countries scattered between.
Also - we have awesome new flags on the Per Country page! 🏁🚩
Let's take a closer look...👀
1/10
21G (Lambda) was recently classified a VoI by @WHO & included in @nextstrain builds. It seems to originate in South America - we can see its prevalence in countries like Chile, Argentina, Ecuador, & Peru (purple-pink):
2/10
Looking at the focal build, we can see that 21G (Lambda) has also been found in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Australia.
Lambda has a unique 7 AA deletion in Spike, & a mutation at S:L452Q.
S:417N has actually popped up multiple times in the Delta variant - it's of interest because it's thought to be related to immune escape & is also found in Beta.
But looking below, there are 2 main clusters - @PangoNetwork lineages AY.2 & AY.1