Love this in the opening paragraph... Passive/aggressive choice of terminology... "The first category of cryptocurrencies includes those not backed by anything, like Bitcoin. We call these “fiat cryptocurrencies.” Their defining feature is that they have no intrinsic value."
"Finally, we note the urgency of this project. Some policymakers may view stablecoins as an up-and-coming financial innovation that does not currently pose any systemic risk and therefore believe that the best strategy is to wait to see how things play out....
That would be a mistake, because this is precisely when policymakers need to act. If policymakers wait a decade, stablecoin issuers will become the money market funds of the 21st century—too big to fail—and the government will have to step in with a rescue package whenever...
... there’s a financial panic. In addition, preserving the monetary sovereignty of the government is crucial for monetary policy. Policymakers should learn from history and not make the same mistakes again."
To be clear .. this is an excerpt from the paper .. not my opinion.
The demise of the dollar has been a popular media story throughout my entire life. Consume such stories with the understanding they have been around for 50 years. A few examples...
Survey result 1. Economist estimates are much more clustered toward the mean than my survey respondents’ guesses because anonymous survey participants are not worried about looking stupid, unlike economists making public forecasts.
This is a known bias in economic forecasts.
Survey result 2. Question asked for your 80 percent confidence range for NFP this Friday.
Median range bottom 300
Median range top 900
A true surprise needs to be outside that range IMO
There is a persistent day of the week effect in bitcoin. Sundays are red and Mondays are black. It has been particularly extreme since 2020 but even looking back to the 2014-2017 period, you can see it’s strong.
Any guesses why? All the true believing hodlers are in church?
In a market that trades 24/7, nobody can trade all the time. Since the trend / bias has been strongly in favor of buying throughout bitcoin’s history, maybe any drop in activity is bearish (or at least less bullish)? Sunday is the lowest volume day of the week for BTC
Most good explanations for Sunday weakness (no institutional bid?) also apply to Saturday, which makes the puzzle more confusing.