Spent a couple of days in York speaking to businesses about Grand Reopening..
Overall sense are that things pretty tentative. HEre of course the lack of international tourists overwhelming factor.
At new hotel domestic tourists have fully booked up, but owner cant find staff...
Twenty per cent staff at his hotel group chain in Yorkshire are isolating, tho owner backs PM’s “if not now when” message...
Coffee shop owners working on basis much social distancing maintained voluntarily (York’s cafe spaces small), and domestic tourists spend less on coffee..
At “York Chocolate story” boss Juliana at pains to downplay rhetoric about Freedom Day “we dont like that phrase” will welcome more guests, but says her polling shows that people expect to be protected against virus, masks “strongly encouraged” for customers, compulsory for staff
At York Emporium coffee processors, owner Laurence Beardmore says business is up, but it is not normal... going to play it by ear, also prices are up from coffee beans, packaging, and the Italian coffee machines... expect price rises for customers, he says.
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Inflation rate up again a bit, a little further above 2% target, driven by, for example, used car sales prices up 4.4% in June alone, which we covered last month.
Base effects, eg comparisons with pandemic price falls a year ago, driving a lot of this…
used car price surge is also a result of pandemic, eventually. Demand has shot up, because new car production slowed at a time when demand rebounded, forcing people to buy second hand. microchip production was diverted away from new cars to electronics last year during pandemic
Heading for peak of about 3% in coming months, above target, but not as high as after recent crises or as seen now in US.
would trigger a letter of explanation from the Governor to Chancellor, which would say, “these are mainly bottlenecks and arithmetic effects of reopening”
Outside Wembley now… @LukeShaw23….
Perhaps underrated by Mourinho, but actually dynamite 🧨
Sweet caroline…
Pretty chaotic outside stadium… they stopped activating tickets at outer barrier because of those rushing security checks, which means they don’t work at gate…and you have to go back to outer gate. but also some enterprising people trying to get in with screenshots of tickets!!
OBR chief Richard Hughes coming up on Today in a mo, previewing the new Fiscal Risks Report…
Triple Lock uprating due to 8% earnings “anomaly” forecast to coast £3 billion in payments to pensioners, says OBR’s chief Richard Hughes to @bbcnickrobinson on Today... and already no provision for £10bn of ongoing annual extra post pandemic spending...
Important OBR report onto medium term fiscal risks... and covid response
... UK fall in GDP in 2020 second worst behind Spain, worst in G7 reflecting big pandemic health hit
NEW: Bank of England Governor Bailey at Mansion House says economy is “bouncing back rapidly” that inflation rise “will continue through the rest of this year.. further above target” but that this is expected to be a “temporary feature of the bounce back”...
Unexpectedly few references to the football in the Governor’s speech.... but he does cite the competing inflationary impact of the Beckham family ... a 29 year high in personal grooming inflation of 8%, though Victoria Beckham is cutting the avg price of her dresses by 40%
Chancellor at Mansion House: “I see no reason of substance why the UK should not continue to provide clearing services for countries in the EU” - says UK’s principles and values on regulation/ rule of law should reassure
Significant new investment in sector v dependent on EU exports - timed to deal with rules of origin issue that was subject of very last negotiations between PM & VDL. Basically the batteries will need to be British for the car to be exported tariff free bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Strongest commitment yet from Nissan that “generation after generation” of workers in Sunderland will be employed, after this investment…
The questions - how much is the subsidy… as this is around one tenth of battery capacity required to maintain the current size of car industry, will everyone else get same subsidy… and what might happen if in a spat with EU over something else, tariffs were applied…